Saturday 25 May 2024

Netherlands last 16

Only bet yesterday won, took a little bit of time for Searle to take control, but he did and that's all that mattered, seemed to be a weird mix of really quick games and ones that went deep, but that's neither here nor there, I'm going to do a quick power through round three.

Chisnall/Clayton - 0.25u Chisnall 8/13, Betfair have this available (in the sportsbook) amongst others, Chizzy really should be 1/2 as a fair price, that looks a good enough edge for me.

Searle/de Graaf - Ryan's much better. May be slightly better than the market line, which is offering a tad better than 1/3, I've got him a touch more than three in four, not quite enough to push though.

Noppert/Wattimena - Line seems fair. I've got it as 65/35, Danny's just the right side of 1/2, let's move on.

van Gerwen/Dobey - I kid you not, I did not look at the last sixteen draw when I made the notes I did on Chris in the previous post. I do think he's slightly better right now - 0.1u Dobey 11/8, it is only because of the location of the event that I don't consider going more and I do think that will be a factor given how historically elite Michael has been in Euro Tours in the Netherlands.

Edhouse/Woodhouse - Got to love a house derby, thinking Luke's a bit better, but not by much, call it 55/45, he's actually the underdog here, but while I can understand the logic I'm going to take the 365 price every day of the week for a small nibble, 0.1u Woodhouse 13/10

van den Bergh/Schindler - Dimi's looked alright this weekend, which is kind of annoying as Schindler is priced right on the margins of where we would fire a bet unless we could find a good reason not to bet on him. As Schindi did look alright himself I'll go for another narrow stab, 0.1u Schindler 4/5, with him projecting a fraction better than 60/40 I think we have enough, but would not be surprised if this is one that turns out wrong.

Price/van Veen - Pretty much a tale of opposites for how their round two games went, not sure how much that will be a factor but it can't really help Gian, who I see as a tad under a one in three shot. Market has him at 7/4, so a bit better than a one in three shot, it is on home soil which my model makes no attempts to look at and is reliant on me to take these intangibles into account. Fine to pass this one.

Rock/Menzies - Menzies is just better at this stage. Just need to look at the Woodhouse game, it's the same projection and the same price, so we go with the same thing, 0.1u Menzies 13/10

So, surprisingly active given the relative lack of bets in the first two rounds. Granted, most are small plays and we're pushing small edges, but those are better than no edges. Severely doubt that I'll be able to get anything before the quarters with Leeds/Southampton going on. Should be back post event for some analysis.

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