Sunday 12 May 2024

Quick day 3 bets

A big part of the danger of betting against elite level players is that you run into them playing a game where there's nothing you can do. Granted, Nijman probably wasn't at his best, but it's hard to see what he could have done against that level of display from van Gerwen. Still, it's only a minimal loss, let's see what we can do to recover from here, and it's him first up.

van Gerwen/Gilding - Might be the case that van Gerwen is a touch overrated, and that Gilding is a tad underrated. 7/2 is a pretty big number for what is still a fairly recent major champion against anyone. It's really close, I'm seeing Andrew as having a little bit over 30% - I really should play this one, I'm just not that convinced he's playing quite well enough very recently to realise what the larger form numbers should say.

Humphries/Smith - This we can bet though, 0.1u Smith 23/10 on Betfred, anything better than 2/1 looks good. Ross is quietly putting up devastating numbers, and is for me a top ten player in the world just looking at raw statistics. I'm seeing this in the neighbourhood of 40% chances, nearly 10% more than what the line's suggesting. Only going small, if only because there's always that danger that Luke says "nope, not today" and puts in a level of performance that's unplayable, but Ross is severely undervalued here.

Roetzsch/Noppert - Still lacking enough data on Franz for a projection to be reliable. 4/1 might be a tad too long, but Danny looked excellent yesterday so I can't see that being anything more than marginal value.

Heta/de Decker - This one's actually rating fairly close for me. Heta's only outscoring de Decker by about a point, and most of that is consistency, which might arguably be enough to flip a 52/48 in favour of Mike (which is what the projection shows) the other way in reality, but with the odds available, it's still more than enough chances to go with another small play, 0.1u de Decker 13/8

Edhouse/Pietreczko - Market might now be overadjusting for Ritchie's recent level of play right now. Yes, I do project him as a favourite and anything other than that would be a surprise, but it's only just. It's not enough to start betting Ricardo at a pretty weak 7/5 price though.

Cross/Bunting - Market pretty much can't separate these two. Neither is odds against, Rob is the one that is odds on with Stephen at evens. That seems fair enough to me, I've got this as being in favour of Cross but only like 55/45, if that, so nothing of interest here.

Gurney/Searle - This is a pretty strange one - Ryan is priced as if he is only a marginal favourite, where as I'm seeing Daryl as only having a one in three chance. That seems a fair bit of a disparity in terms of chances - I could drag Searle down a couple of points due to consistency for sure, but he did look better today and the lines, even without considering vig, give him less than a 60% chance. We'll take that fairly comfortably, 0.25u Searle 8/11

Razma/Cullen - This one is an awkward one to read - Madars is still somewhat all over the place, just need to look at yesterday for the prime example, was bang average for the first six legs but then excellent for the last five, while Joe continues to look pretty ordinary in the scoring, basically having the numbers of a less consistent Martin Lukeman, but will get much better results than what those numbers show - but only some of the time. Razma would probably be the angle here, I'm seeing this as about 60/40 in favour of Cullen but that looks to be a bit wild in terms of how accurate that might be, as Madars is a touch longer than 2/1 in places that's probably worth a small stab, I'll probably have a private shot just to have some funking power, but won't officially recommend a play.

Should be back with quick projections right after the Cullen game, and then any quarter final plays at half time in the football I'd guess.

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