Saturday, 11 May 2024

Quick day 2 bets

This is just going to be a yes/no/maybe rundown:

Yes:

0.1u Nijman 19/10 v van Gerwen - I think that's just about long enough that we can take a stab. He's had his signature win now, this is a complete freeroll and the numbers put him much closer to Michael than generally indicated.

Maybe:

van Duijvenbode > Gurney - Honestly I should be throwing out a small play here given we project that Dirk is just the favourite and we can get 11/8, but I still think he's lacking a real big performance since the injury issues.
Hilger > Pietreczko - He didn't look too bad yesterday and we can get pretty big odds against one of the weaker seeds. Hard to know if yesterday was just a real outlier though.
Humphries > Bialecki - Luke's just playing so, so well right now that it might be the case that 1/6 is worth a play. Sebastian can hit nice spots of form though, so I won't go with it.

No:

Rock/Roetzsch
Searle/Wattimena
Smith/Woodhouse
Heta/van Veen
Cullen/Wade
Cross/Kuivenhoven
Clayton/Edhouse
Noppert/van Barneveld
Wright/Gilding
Ratajski/de Decker
Bunting/Baetens
Chisnall/Razma

Frankly a lot of the no's are a tick off where I'd put the perfect line, so there may be extremely fractional value if you go off the numbers in the previous post and compare to the odds. Back probably tomorrow morning with the last sixteen.

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