Friday 24 May 2024

Netherlands day 1

Apparently Littler did something in an exbo yesterday, but who cares about that, we're now at the midpoint of the Euro Tour so let's blast through day 1.

Taylor/de Sousa - This was one where on a first glance I was thinking "hmm, Dom should probably be the favourite here", and was disappointed to see that he actually was in the market. On further review however, Jose is actually projecting to win it - although Taylor has truly fantastic consistency stats while Jose's are, if not bad, below average. I'd then rate this as 50/50 and take JdS small, 0.1u de Sousa 13/10 with Hills.

Edhouse/Brejcha - Know very little about Jiri, can only really look to the quali, where he couldn't get better than 85 at all. Not the greatest standard but little to suggest he can cut it against Ritchie, 1/8 isn't really tempting either.

Razma/de Graaf - Fun one which we must have seen on the Nordic tour at some point surely? Rates to be pretty tight, maybe Razma's slightly better but not by much, market also slightly favours him so nothing to see here.

Kist/van Velzen - Two players from yesterday's quali collide, we know where Kist is at (or de we?), Marvin's a name I've seen in despatches but don't really know a great deal about, but just looking at the quali he might have been playing slightly better than Christian. Market has Kist as a small favourite, with the relative experience difference at this level I think that's fair enough.

Dolan/Bates - Brendan's in a pretty darned tight race to get into the World Cup, and this isn't a bad spot to pick up some crucial ranking money. Owen's alright, but Dolan's just that bit better and this rates as just under a two in three spot for him - the market likes Brendan even more than that, but 5/2 isn't really offering the edge needed to go with Bates here, although it's at least close.

O'Connor/Mansell - Another fun match up here, feels like Willie's been quiet for a while, while Mickey's also been quiet, but quietly good for the past year or so, and playing well enough that he is only a fractional underdog. If anything I thought it'd be the other way around, but it isn't. Mansell's 11/10 in the market se we're in general agreement.

Zonneveld/Puha - Haupai hasn't really done a great deal of note since winning his card, although let's be fair, it is a big switch and a fair step up, but Niels isn't a bad player in the slightest and looks much better here, probably calling this just over three in four. 4/9 on Coralbrokes is probably worth considering, but Haupai has a fair consistency advantage (he is only a tenth of a point per turn worse on losing legs than winning ones, compared to a database-wide five) so I think there's enough thought that Puha might be slightly underrated that I won't recommend the play.

Gilding/Mol - Damian's back after an underwhelming couple of years on the tour, had a great first game in the quali but was bang average in the remainder (although that opening match might have been the toughest opponent he got drawn against). 4/11 on Andrew may be a touch of an overstatement, but I didn't really see enough from Mol yesterday to feel slightly confident in taking an underdog flier here.

I'll post up the evening session shortly, just want to get the morning out there for now.

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