Saturday 25 May 2024

Netherlands day 2

1 up 1 down yesterday, fortunately the up one got us a fair bit more than the down one lost us (pretty nice game by Taylor in fairness) so a little bit of profit was generated. Sixteen more games today:

Bunting/de Graaf - Fairly competent game by Jeffrey yesterday, but nothing special, and will need to up his game somewhat to get close to Stephen, who's projecting as winning three in four, with the market having it ever so slightly even more in his favour. Certainly not enough to bet at 2/7, and we're not remotely interested in JdG at 10/3.

Gurney/Woodhouse - Luke made heavy work of Ryan Meikle in a game that wasn't pretty, needing to come from 4-1 down, but it's an important win. The model can't separate him and Daryl, Gurney has a little bit of a consistency edge but it's not major, so I'm calling this pretty much a flip, Woodhouse at 13/10 is not the price I'm interested in on yesterday's showing.

Heta/Edhouse - Ritchie got past the interesting action of Brejcha yesterday eventually, one real duff leg and never really got through the gears, so hopefully that was a case of just doing enough as he comes up against Damon, who it feels as if has been a tad quiet in 2024, while still producing very good numbers. Almost good enough that we want to bet - I've got it at 65/35, the market has it 4/6, I'll give Edhouse enough credit over the last couple of months to say he's been a touch better than that, which brings it into the no bet range.

Chisnall/Zonneveld - Niels did not perform particularly well against Puha but got the deciding leg win, just about, will need to be much, much improved today against Chizzy, but he's generally been alright and has approaching a one in three shot and the crowds have certainly been helping the Dutch players. Market more or less agrees with that assessment with Zonneveld at 9/4, toning his numbers down a notch on yesterday where no legs were won (by him at least) in fifteen or better appears reasonable enough.

Clayton/van Velzen - Big win for Marvin, creeping past Kist from 5-4 down despite also not getting a single leg won in fifteen or better. Clayton is not a bad seed to come up against right now, but I think Clayton will be there in six visits on throw or five against more than often enough here. No real data to work with, 10/3 on Marvin might be slightly harsh, but nothing was shown yesterday to give me confidence in that line.

Pietreczko/Wattimena - Jermaine got through a bit of a spicy one with Cullen in a last leg, and you've got to feel the fans will be on his side again here. I'm finding this one hard to call, Ricardo's been very hit and miss since winning his Euro Tour, and I've actually got Jermaine as the ever so slight favourite. 8/11 is a bit much, but Pietreczko is not good enough in this situation to make 13/10 a viable play.

Noppert/Gilding - Andrew was given a surprisingly good test by Damian Mol and needed a bit of luck to get over the line, but he did, and now faces a much harder opponent in Noppert here. Bit odd they couldn't work this into the evening session, but what have you, it's a solid closing two to the afternoon. Noppert looks to be about 65/35 to me, market has him just shorter than 1/2, so maybe favouring him a bit much, but we are playing in the Netherlands so I'll allow it.

Searle/Wade - Wade predictably had zero issues with the Finnish qualifier, winning 6-0 without ever really doing anything special, hopefully that's just keeping things in the tank for the much stronger opponent that is Searle, who I've got as projecting as a pretty big favourite here, just more than two in three, not quite 70%. Let's draw it back to pure two in three with a small consistency edge for Wade, at the best price it's enough for a first bet, 0.25u Searle 4/6

Dobey/Blom - Into the evening session and we have Dobey, probably one of the top ten players in the world right now if not better (would you be surprised to hear that since October, he's outscoring van Gerwen?), and he's up against one of the domestic qualifiers that came through in Blom, who it has to be said looked really good in his victory over Ryan Joyce. If he plays like that again, prices of more than 4/1 could end up looking rather silly - I just can't help but think that it's a wild outlier and/or it's taken a lot out of his play. I'll lay Dobey for a tiny fraction on the exchanges personally, but won't recommend anything.

Price/Mansell - Gerwyn's still continuing to manufacture really good numbers, and Mansell only dropped two legs against O'Connor, have seen better performances but he did what he needed to do. Price is projecting at near 80/20, Mickey will need to be a bit better than he was yesterday to get close to that sort of projection, the markets have it ever so slightly closer so maybe fractional value in Price in this one.

Rock/van Duijvenbode - We're still waiting for Josh to make a breakthrough at this level, his numbers of late aren't quite top ten, but are still top sixteen so it is not as if he has fallen off a cliff, and Dirk is going to be a very interesting opponent who looked very good in the legs he won against Rydz yesterday but a bit average in the ones he didn't. Appears moderately close - seeing Rock as about a 55/45 favourite, he's 8/11, so that looks to be a close enough line to correct for me.

van Gerwen/Doets - Michael could do with a nice run here to start gearing up for the Matchplay, as there are hints he could be being slightly left behind at the very top levels of the game, and he will get a derby against Kevin, who edged out a really inconsistent Mike de Decker 6-5 in a game where he showed the occasional flash but was primarily just cleaning up Mike's mistakes. That's not going to cut it against MvG, I'm seeing a projection in the high 70's, he is 1/4 so we're not going to touch this one.

Schindler/Dolan - Martin's back in the seeds here, and will face Dolan, who got into a 4-0 lead against a badly misfiring Owen Bates, without ever really doing anything himself. Brendan can, and should, play a lot better here, and will need to against an in form opponent who is so strong right now that Dolan is only projecting as a one in three chance. As such, Schindler looks acca safe at 4/7, but there's not the edge there to bet, unless you think Brendan cannot up his game from yesterday.

Wright/Menzies - Cameron got maybe the performance of yesterday, steamrollering van Barneveld with an obscene run to go 5-0 up and then claim it 6-1, and that sort of game is going to take Wright apart you would think - if Menzies can replicate it, of course. He does project as just over a 60/40 shot against Peter, the market appears to have adjusted and puts him at 8/11. Hopefully that's just a temporary adjustment to yesterday, otherwise the party might be over.

Smith/van den Bergh - Was able to get Dimi 6-5 just before the off yesterday, and was looking good until Clemens just couldn't score heavily enough to get us to a decider. Ross Smith is up next, another player putting up fantastic numbers and kind of going a bit unnoticed. I've got a projection right in the middle of 60% and 65%, oddschecker was showing 4/5 on the main page which was looking momentarily exciting, but that's long gone, 8/11 is fairly close to what you'd need but I think a tick more is required for it to be a play. DvdB did look good yesterday after all.

van Veen/Taylor - Here we've got Taylor, who goes from first on yesterday with a very strong showing against Jose de Sousa, to last on against van Veen, who is up into the seeds here for I want to say the first time, and will have a boisterous crowd at this stage on his side. Maybe he's not putting up quite as good numbers as he was doing late in 2023, but it's still enough to project a 65/35 edge here, Dom quietly doing well enough to keep it at that range. Gian is 8/13, so I think there might be a tiny edge, but certainly not enough to officially recommend.

So just the one play on Ryan Searle, but there's quite a few that are marginal, if your opinions are slightly more weighted one way or another than mine, maybe you can find some more punts to go with. Back tomorrow morning with the last sixteen.

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