Hildesheim round two - almost perfect

Very happy with yesterday. Scoreline flattered Kurz a bit and Slevin was probably value for at least one more leg if not a couple, but the win wasn't in doubt, Monk got home, then with Evans we're mostly looking for signs that we thought that Dobey 80% was incorrect - I think getting a shot at a 180 then two further match darts is enough. Sure, it'd be nicer for our book to actually hit on one of them, but it's process we're interested in, Evans is one we've touched on a couple of times before this season and we've hit before, and with him in a provisional worlds spot, he may be one we revisit in the near future. Real quick today so apologies for that, but quick is better than nothing:

Cross/van Veen - Nope, Cross correctly small favourite

Searle/Lukeman - Line might be favouring Searle a tad too much but still nope

Noppert/van Dongen - Think they've correctly recognised that Jules is doing better of late and cut the lines just enough that we can't play it as a small flier

Heta/Pilgrim - I mean this is a real tough one to judge. Head says Pilgrim might be small value but at the same time says that betting anyone who isn't a card holder at shorter than 2/1 against Heta is insanity

van Duijvenbode/Killington - Close to a Killington play, but need a bit more than 3/1, 4/1 I'd probably shoot

Rock/Bunting - Either the market's soured on Rock a lot, or Bunting's secret's out. Either way, Stephen's too short to consider and there's not enough value on Josh either

Clayton/Kurz - I feel like 4/1 ought to be considered, but Jonny's just been so solid this season I think that he doesn't allow the half chances that Nico may need to bring this one home

Smith/Gurney - Smith priced with small edge, this seems fine, maybe the short notice callup (how short though? When did Price say no?) affects him a little bit but that's too hard to quantify, if it's an issue at all

Cullen/Monk - I'm sort of half tempted with Monk again given 3/1 is available, but with Joe looking decent of late and Arron not exactly setting the world on fire yesterday, I'm OK to just say no to this one

Chisnall/Clemens - Line looks alright. Gabriel has a bit more than a one in three shot

Aspinall/Wade - Kind of similar to the above except Wade has a few more percent

Schindler/Pietreczko - Interesting dynamic, another 60/40 sort of game which the market has correctly priced with Martin being favoured

van Gerwen/Lennon - Lennon wasn't convincing yesterday, but we know he's been playing much better than his results for a long time now and is awfully underrated. 0.1u Lennon 5/1, I don't expect this to work much more than 30% of the time, but 17% of the time is break even and it feels clearly more than that to me

Wright/Dobey - Might be small value on Dobey here. Got him a smidgeon over 60%, so 4/5 on Ladbrokes, especially given he's dodged one bullet and might be in a spot where he goes on a run, might be worth a gander

Humphries/Krcmar - Luke's going to be too good. 4/1 might be slightly harsh on Boris, but only slightly

Smith/Soutar - Same as above, except move Alan's price in half a point and move his percentage chances up two or three

Hildesheim round one evening

Let's continue while I've just got a few things refreshing at work:

Wilson/van Veen - Looks rather one sided this one, James will hit decent performances here and there but has never really regained the levels he was at within the BDO, or when he was in the periphery of the top 32 for that matter. Gian we know all about at this stage, maybe the odds listed are a slight exaggeration as I've got Wilson as probably closer to 30% than 20% to win it, but 7/2 doesn't seem unreasonable.

Hempel/Monk - Arron's had a few decent runs and games here and there, while Florian's been mostly anonymous for some time but has also had an occasional good game more often of late. Looks about 60/40 Monk to me, Monk has a fairly bad consistency score but so does Hempel, I don't think the home crowd will be that big a deal on a Friday night session, 0.25u Monk 6/5

Klaasen/Wade - Would be great to see Jelle back on the tour, but the numbers are not inspiring and against someone of Wade's calibre and consistency, it's hard to see the former Lakeside champion making any sort of inroads in this one that often. Fairly limited data says 35% but looking at how that's constructed it's a clear overestimate, Wade being 1/3 looks just fine to me.

van der Voort/Gurney - I'm not sure if I can recall a single game of Vincent's this season, and he is currently a fair bit out of the world championship picture which would seriously hurt his chances of retaining a card just over twelve months from now - if he doesn't decide to just pack it in as I believe he's at least mentioned as a possibility in some interviews. Daryl's continuing to appear in major events and has appeared to be trending upwards decently this year, and a position as a solid favourite is more than justified, I'm seeing right in the middle of 70% and 75%, so a price of 4/11 looks spot on.

Pietreczko/Mansell - Ricardo's been real unfortunate to miss majors this year, and he still has some work to do to get to Dortmund - one win over Mickey would probably do it, a Sunday appearance would surely lock it up, but Mansell's not been playing bad this year at all and his scoring is at a point where this really does look too close to call. 11/8 on Mansell is not a necessarily bad punt, I guess it comes down to if you think that the home crowd will be more of a factor than Ricardo presumably knowing that this is an important game. Make your own call.

Clemens/Jansen - Clemens is correctly a favourite here, it feels such a long time ago since Danny won that title out of nowhere, and while he's been pretty poor since, there have been some signs of improvement, albeit occasional. Gabriel being 1/4 is a tad harsh, but I'm just not comfortable looking at Danny until he's the inverse price - which he clearly isn't.

Dobey/Evans - Really important game for Chris here, currently in position 33 for Dortmund, a win would bump him above Beaton and level with Dolan, neither of whom are here (not sure what the countback situation is with the latter), and while this is in no way the worse draw he could get, Lee isn't someone you can take for granted, he is in a worlds spot right now and a steady 89 rate of scoring is enough to keep Dobey honest here. Sure, Dobey is favoured, but I'm going to take a stab against him, 0.1u Evans 4/1 on 365, this is one that's going to not work a lot of the time, but if I've got Lee as just over 30% and he's priced at 20%, that's too much edge to not have a small shot at.

Bunting/de Graaf - Jeffrey's in again through the Nordic tour, but he's got probably the worst draw he could have got, Stephen's going to continue to just plug away and put up great numbers quietly, and looks like he'll outclass de Graaf here. 5/1 on Jeffrey looks just about perfect.

So two in the evening session to add to Kurz in the afternoon session.

Hildesheim round one morning real quick post

Was meaning to get this out last night but was pretty wiped out, been under the weather all week so will just get this out sharpish and to the point.

Krcmar/Joyce - Looks a tight one on paper. Have Joyce as a tiny favourite, might be playing a bit better in general than Krcmar is, 8/13 might be a little bit of an exaggeration but I'm not liking the idea of jumping all over Boris at 6/4.

Lukeman/Razma - Another tight one on paper, here I've got Razma as a tiny favourite in the numbers, but it feels like Lukeman's improved somewhat over the last few months after a moderately barren first half of the season, so I'll call this one a pure flip. Again the market is a little bit off on this one, rating Razma as a 6/4 dog - if I restrict the data to just H2 of 2023, that's exactly what the projections say, so I guess it's a case of if you want to trust longer term quality or more recent form. With Madars needing the win to sure up a spot at Dortmund, there's that additional added pressure, so I'm fine with not going for it all things considered.

Waites/Killington - Bit of a free hit for both here, not heard a massive amount from either all season and neither are remotely near the Dortmund scenarios as they'd both need to bink. I was going to say this was a play on Killington looking at the initial line on oddschecker of evens, given I'm seeing it 65/35 - while George is a bit more inconsistent, he is scoring more than Scott is and I can't justify moving things down to more than 60/40, but when you go into the individual bookies, everywhere's shifted to 8/11, 4/6 sort of lines (indeed, a quick F5 of the main page does shift a best price into 4/5), which isn't really enticing.

Lennon/Kirchmann - Lennon's probably safe for the worlds already, but getting a HNQ in round one should be the safety net he needs. We still think Lennon's really good and just not getting the results, Kirchmann is relatively unknown but did finish the quali with back to back 90 averages running through Schlichting and Gotthardt 10-1 combined, so can clearly play somewhat - that's enough to say not to jump on to 1/7 on Lennon, as weirder things have happened.

Sedlacek/Soutar - Probably too much to ask for either player in this all-hair derby to get to Dortmund, but both are on the outside looking in for the worlds, but not by much, so it's kind of important for both players here. Another one that appears way too close to call, market putting Soutar at evens and Sedlacek slightly odds on appears perfectly fair to me.

Slevin/Kurz - The second HNQ comes in, and Kurz looked really, really good yesterday - 90 average or better in all five matches going 25-8 in legs is the sort of thing we thought he would be able to do more often if he set his mind to getting on the tour what must be at least five years ago now. Slevin, after what looked like a really promising start to the season, has failed to deliver somewhat since and is looking like real run of the mill scoring and I can only say he's worth the bet against given how good Nico looked yesterday - 0.25u Kurz 21/10 on Ladbrokes.

Smith/Pilgrim - Weird one where the veteran tour card holder with bundles of experience is the underdog to the non-card holder, but that's kind of where we are at, and it doesn't seem ridiculous - Darryl has been doing some fantastic stuff around the non-128 world and we've got enough data that using the master computer seems fair - and that says he should win five in eight games. So more or less bang on the 8/13 quoted.

Kovacs/van Dongen - Patrik makes another appearance on the Euro Tour, still yet to really trouble us and the numbers have not been fantastic, particularly given he's facing Jules, who's looked much, much improved over the last 2-3 months. I'm not sure than him being priced at near 5-1 on is necessarily a true reflection of the difference in quality between the players, but we can only get 4/1 on Kovacs and I don't see him winning much more than 20% of the time, if that much at all, to recommend a play.

I'll put out the evening session in a separate post, might be soon after, might be at lunchtime.

Keith can shut up now

Best 138 finish ever amirite

Real life got in the way of getting anything out for the semis/final, but I doubt much of value was missed. Luke finally getting over the line clocks off #1 in the recent list of next players to win a first PDC major at the first time of asking, here's new FRH rankings:

1 Michael Smith

2 Michael van Gerwen

3 Luke Humphries (UP 1)

4 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 1)

5 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)

6 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 1)

7 Peter Wright

8 Dave Chisnall

9 Joe Cullen (UP 4)

10 Dirk van Duijvenbode (DOWN 1)

11 Rob Cross (DOWN 1)

12 Danny Noppert (DOWN 1)

13 Damon Heta (DOWN 1)

14 Dimitri van den Bergh

15 Andrew Gilding

16 Ross Smith

17 Ryan Searle

18 Chris Dobey (UP 1)

19 Josh Rock (DOWN 1)

20 Martin Schindler (NEW)

Schindler dumps out Clemens as a result of his quarter final run, but it's Cullen who makes the most strides with his semi final, the finalists only gaining the one place each just based on how the points were distributed.

Few more things have been going on, Muramatsu won the Asian Championship and is back at Ally Pally as a result, and it sounds like Baetens is continuing to get all the cake in the WDF, sadly there's no Dart Connect or any other sort of data available, I think there was a stream which I could decompile it off, but I really don't have the time to add minor events if they can't be bothered even minimal effort on their end.

We've got the final Euro Tour next weekend, which is going to lock down a lot of positions, then the week after we've got four of the six remaining Pro Tour events, so we're really getting close to the end of the year. Expect me back on Thursday.

GP quarters

Dobey got it done to further push us into the black for the tournament, which would have been better if we'd have had the stones to actually go with Schindler as well. Do we like anything for the quarters?

Dobey/Cullen - Maybe we go with this? Dobey's slightly odds on at 5/6, but I'm thinking he's probably got slightly better chances than that, pushing up to around 60%. That's not enough for me, Joe's not exactly been playing badly so I'm happy enough to say that we don't have enough edge.

Price/Schindler - Probably the end of the road for Martin here, although Price has looked less than convincing and that 3-0 second round win was a bit misleading. Feels like a classic 75/25 sort of game, and Schindler's 10/3, so nothing really doing here.

Smith/Gilding - Michael's cruised through to this stage with very little resistance, while Gilding has been a bit fortunate to get to this stage, numbers not looking great and it's probably another case where he's probably dropping out at this stage. Projections are actually giving Andrew a bit more of a chance than the market is, floating around the 35% mark, such is the relative mediocrity of Smith's game this year - so we ought to be somewhat interested in odds approaching 3/1, the short term statistics are just too much of a turn off to realistically consider this one. Easy to believe this'll be a case of Smith stepping the game up when it matters.

Wright/Humphries - Should we be firing on Humphries in this one? Luke's not dropped a set yet, but the averages are kind of meh and he needed every leg in four of those five sets. Wright's not been good this year but the raw averages for this tournament look a bit higher than Luke's are. I'm seeing around 75% chances for Luke, maybe a touch more, I think this is enough to go with, 0.25u Humphries 1/2 with Coralbrokes, widely available 4/9 seems also fine, we've got enough edge here to fire on a favourite.

GP lap 2

Two up one down in the first round for a steady profit, a few upsets but the big gun in each of the quarters is still there, last sixteen will go over the next two days, here's what we like:

Gilding/Anderson - Really not feeling this at the line posted. Ando is legitimately pushing up at around 80% to win this one, that's just how good he is playing right now, survived an opening scare but looked pretty good, Gilding needed to come from behind but was not convincing. No value in taking the underdog here and I doubt you find any pair of opponents at this stage of a major (with the possible exception of the UK Open) where betting at around 1/4 is ever a good idea.

Price/Ratajski - And Price definitely isn't one of those. Ratajski got us a win in round one but was perhaps a touch fortunate in doing so and will need to improve against Price, who was relatively comfortable against Noppert. If we take any side here we're looking at Krzysztof again, I think he's pushing up to a one in three chance on the numbers, but in reality it might be a touch less given the format and first round games, 10/3 I still don't think can ever be bad, but it's not enough to go with a proper tip.

Smith/Dolan - Michael was the joint easiest winner in round one, while Brendan pulled off one of the bigger shocks to come from behind and upset van Duijvenbode. This feels like the same as above - I'm seeing Brendan at around one in three, but we can only get 3/1, and the relative first round performances don't make me want to consider it as a play.

Bunting/Schindler - By far the most interesting tie of the first night, Stephen dumped out Aspinall in a last leg decider, Schindler nearly doing the same against Barney but getting the deciding set 3-1 after the first two went the distance. I can't split the two - I'm not seeing quite the odds to go with a play on a legit bookie (whatever StarSports is has enough, I'd want 6/4, can only really see 11/8), the exchanges might be a play, but for conventional sources we just need a little bit of line movement.

Humphries/Woodhouse - The better Luke moderately easily despatched Gurney, the other Luke turned over Chisnall with the same set pattern and was averaging better in the respective games. That makes me think the line is close to correct - 3/1 on Woody seems fair, I'm seeing Humphries as slightly better, but as one of the better doublers on the circuit (apparently) and with a better round one display, I think we can pull this one in to make this a clear no bet.

van Gerwen/Dobey - Michael looked really good in putting out a disappointing Josh Rock, while Dobey took out Dimitri in straight sets, albeit in a decider both times. I think Chris is live here, but will just go small with respective first round plays and a fair consistency differential, 0.1u Dobey 5/2. On just the winning legs, this is close to a flip, but we know it's more in MvG's favour than that. Just not that much more that we don't bet here.

Wright/Searle - Peter was able to get the win over a moderately disappointing Clemens in fairly short order, while Ryan was forced to work all the way by Damon Heta but got over the line. Line seems fair enough, I've got Searle as a little bit better, and the markets have neither player odds against, just shading the line in favour of Ryan, so no bet.

Smith/Cullen - Ross took out the player defending champion's money in moderately short order, Cullen looked a little bit better though in dropping Mike de Decker. Another moderately tight one, I've got Ross as a tiny favourite, the market has it basically pick em at evens, if you need to bet it'd not be on Joe, but we don't need to bet.

Back Friday for the quarters.

Pre Grand Prix thoughts

Will quickly get in new FRH rankings first following the Players Championship wins for Noppert, Chisnall and Anderson, these incorporate first round Grand Prix money but as only Huybrechts in the top 32 is not there (and he's 30th, Woodhouse being the player outside now up into 34th), nothing changes:

1 Michael Smith

2 Michael van Gerwen

3 Nathan Aspinall

4 Luke Humphries

5 Jonny Clayton (UP 1)

6 Gerwyn Price (DOWN 1)

7 Peter Wright

8 Dave Chisnall

9 Dirk van Duijvenbode

10 Rob Cross

11 Danny Noppert (UP 1)

12 Damon Heta (UP 1)

13 Joe Cullen (DOWN 2)

14 Dimitri van den Bergh

15 Andrew Gilding

16 Ross Smith

17 Ryan Searle

18 Josh Rock

19 Chris Dobey

20 Gabriel Clemens

Notable results lower down see Ryan Joyce back in the top 40, and Christian Kist up into the top 80 following a remarkable series.

OK, Grand Prix time, it's always a little bit hard to model given the double in format, and the quick first round format being really brutal with one mistake possibly costing you the match, but let's look and see if there's any value.

van Duijvenbode v Dolan - Line looks alright, it does feel like one where Dirk's a little bit better than a two in three shot.

de Sousa v Anderson - Gary might be the best player in the world right now. 8/15 looks moderately generous, I'd take him at over 70%, nearer half way to 75%, in a race to 11, set format might moderate that slightly, but there's not a chance in hell I'd pick Jose here.

Ratajski v Wade - Appears moderately close, but I think Krzysztof has the better chances here, pushing up to around the 60% marker, James isn't playing badly at all, probably outdoing his ranking, but the Pole has a recent win and should take this one way more often than the market suggests, 0.25u Ratajski evs, couple of random places have 11/10, if you trust them then go with them.

Schindler v van Barneveld - Schindi continues to play well but is still searching for a first win, while Barney is, dare I say, anonymous? When was the last time we saw him do something notable on the floor to get him here? Line looks fine, I have Martin slightly better but it's not by much.

Aspinall v Bunting - Bunting's a recent Euro Tour finalist but Nathan obviously has the most recent TV win, Stephen we think's underrated but not enough that there's a play, I'd give him in the low 40% range, which makes 11/8 an automatic no play.

Price v Noppert - Danny was in the winners enclosure this week, but can he put a glove on Price in this one? Probably not, Gerwyn might not be quite as red hot as he was earlier in the year but he's still doing enough to leave Danny looking at a one in three, one in four sort of win chance, 9/4 looks in that sort of ballpark.

Smith v Rydz - Smith has only been so-so in performances since winning the worlds, but Callan, outside of those occasional flashes which saw him bink to get into the field, isn't really close and a 5/2 line looks like an appropriate place to start.

Cross v Gilding - Rob continues to be undervalued by many, Gilding perhaps overvalued following his TV win, Rob is favoured but it's not by as much as two in three, but it does look over 60% to me. 2/1 on Andrew might offer a sliver of value but not enough to truly recommend a play.

Cullen v de Decker - Onto the Tuesday now, Joe it feels to me has had a fairly quiet season outside of the Matchplay, while Mike continues to progress and is into a second big major now, and is actually a replay of the first round from there. Joe's better, he's not that much better, Mike probably has a touch more than a 40% chance, but the odds are 11/8 so we're not going for this one.

Chisnall v Woodhouse - Dave is continuing to accumulate titles at an impressive rate, which makes this an unfortunate draw for Luke despite him avoiding all the seeds, he's not drawing dead by any means and I actually see him as having a touch more than a one in three chance - not enough of a touch that 21/10 is really worth a play. It's tiny value, nothing more, chuck in possible big stage nerves and it's an easy enough pass for me.

Heta v Searle - This one looks like it should be pretty close no matter how you choose to analyse it. I'd probably give the tiniest of edges to Ryan, maybe slightly more than normal given Damon's mediocre TV results, so maybe we could start to look at a play if the line moves more than the 11/10 that it is at present. 5/4 I'd certainly think is worth considering.

van den Bergh v Dobey - Dimitri has not had a great year, while Dobey has hoovered up a lot of telly experience and realistically speaking is the better player regardless of what the rankings say. This looks like another good spot like Ratajski, 0.25u Dobey evs, like Krzysztof I've got Chris up around the 60% marker which is more than enough to take even money.

Wright v Clemens - Peter could do with some results I think, while Gabriel is kind of in the same boat as he looks to push up the rankings, such is Wright's form, or lack of it, I can't split the two. 13/10 is not the sort of line that's really inspiring, although I don't completely hate a small play. Clemens has beaten Wright on bigger stages than this after all.

van Gerwen v Rock - Two players who continue in the world's top ten in terms of how well they're actually playing, MvG is a little higher obviously, but don't let Rock's lack of results fool you, he is not playing much worse than he was last year. I think we have to take the underdog here, 0.25u Rock 19/10 with Coralbrokes, my model has it as a flip, Rock is a bit more inconsistent but I can't justify a drop to less than 45% chances, which with a price of approaching 2/1, looks decent.

Clayton v Smith - Bit of pressure on Jonny defending winners' money, while Ross looks to become a multiple major winner himself, Ross isn't playing badly at all and is only a moderate amount behind Clayton in this one, it looks like around a 55/45 sort of game, maybe a touch more to Jonny, so 4/6 with Smith not close to 6/4 because vig appears a respectable line.

Humphries v Gurney - Luke is still looking for a first major title and has added another win and two finals to his resume this month, Gurney is looking to consolidate the top 32 positioning and then some, but appears outmatched here, I find it hard to give Daryl even a one in three poke at this, so with a line of 2/1, we're not touching it.

So three bets, two even money shots where it looks like players are undervalued (Ratajski) and overvalued (Dimitri) and then staying on the Rock hype train with the line reflecting that it has perhaps unfairly died off a bit more than it should have done. Back with the last sixteen once we know the line up.