Wednesday 4 October 2023

GP lap 2

Two up one down in the first round for a steady profit, a few upsets but the big gun in each of the quarters is still there, last sixteen will go over the next two days, here's what we like:

Gilding/Anderson - Really not feeling this at the line posted. Ando is legitimately pushing up at around 80% to win this one, that's just how good he is playing right now, survived an opening scare but looked pretty good, Gilding needed to come from behind but was not convincing. No value in taking the underdog here and I doubt you find any pair of opponents at this stage of a major (with the possible exception of the UK Open) where betting at around 1/4 is ever a good idea.

Price/Ratajski - And Price definitely isn't one of those. Ratajski got us a win in round one but was perhaps a touch fortunate in doing so and will need to improve against Price, who was relatively comfortable against Noppert. If we take any side here we're looking at Krzysztof again, I think he's pushing up to a one in three chance on the numbers, but in reality it might be a touch less given the format and first round games, 10/3 I still don't think can ever be bad, but it's not enough to go with a proper tip.

Smith/Dolan - Michael was the joint easiest winner in round one, while Brendan pulled off one of the bigger shocks to come from behind and upset van Duijvenbode. This feels like the same as above - I'm seeing Brendan at around one in three, but we can only get 3/1, and the relative first round performances don't make me want to consider it as a play.

Bunting/Schindler - By far the most interesting tie of the first night, Stephen dumped out Aspinall in a last leg decider, Schindler nearly doing the same against Barney but getting the deciding set 3-1 after the first two went the distance. I can't split the two - I'm not seeing quite the odds to go with a play on a legit bookie (whatever StarSports is has enough, I'd want 6/4, can only really see 11/8), the exchanges might be a play, but for conventional sources we just need a little bit of line movement.

Humphries/Woodhouse - The better Luke moderately easily despatched Gurney, the other Luke turned over Chisnall with the same set pattern and was averaging better in the respective games. That makes me think the line is close to correct - 3/1 on Woody seems fair, I'm seeing Humphries as slightly better, but as one of the better doublers on the circuit (apparently) and with a better round one display, I think we can pull this one in to make this a clear no bet.

van Gerwen/Dobey - Michael looked really good in putting out a disappointing Josh Rock, while Dobey took out Dimitri in straight sets, albeit in a decider both times. I think Chris is live here, but will just go small with respective first round plays and a fair consistency differential, 0.1u Dobey 5/2. On just the winning legs, this is close to a flip, but we know it's more in MvG's favour than that. Just not that much more that we don't bet here.

Wright/Searle - Peter was able to get the win over a moderately disappointing Clemens in fairly short order, while Ryan was forced to work all the way by Damon Heta but got over the line. Line seems fair enough, I've got Searle as a little bit better, and the markets have neither player odds against, just shading the line in favour of Ryan, so no bet.

Smith/Cullen - Ross took out the player defending champion's money in moderately short order, Cullen looked a little bit better though in dropping Mike de Decker. Another moderately tight one, I've got Ross as a tiny favourite, the market has it basically pick em at evens, if you need to bet it'd not be on Joe, but we don't need to bet.

Back Friday for the quarters.

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