Sunday 15 October 2023

Very very quick round three thoughts

Lennon had darts at double in both the legs he lost early to go up 5-0. Those are the fine margins you need to take in order to beat someone like MvG, if he's faltering slightly you've got to punish. Letting him break in seven visits and then not breaking in eighteen yourself when given the chance (heck, Lennon wasn't even on a double after eighteen), can't be doing that, but still confident enough that Steve is outperforming market value and we may well see him again later on this year. Real quick as we're close to go time:

Clemens/Smith - Looks moderately tight but the Englishman is favoured in projections by a near 60/40 margin, he's nominally around 4/6 so clear no bet.

van Gerwen/Cullen - 2/1 on Joe is half tempting. He looked OK yesterday, one mutual bad leg aside, and I'm seeing this around 60/40 as well, it's nearly enough, but not enough to really go with. I'll probably just wait until nearer the off, see if the exchange moves and have a small personal play.

Killington/Pietreczko - JFC what the hell did George do yesterday. Ricardo wasn't half bad either. This one actually looks fairly close on paper, believe it or not, although George has a much, much higher inconsistency rating, so I'd taper what was a wafer thin edge to George more towards 55/45 in favour of Ricardo, maybe more given the crowd and the pressure now being off Pietreczko in terms of making the Euros. Market is tending to give the German the edge ever so slightly so nothing here.

Bunting/van Dongen - This is a really wide open section, and another game where the initial projection calls it 60/40, that's just how well Jules has done of late to keep it that tight to someone consistently good like Bunting is. Yeah, it's another game where inconsistency is a factor, but I'll weigh that off against Jules' form being loaded towards the second half of my sample size and stick with the original numbers - which are putting van Dongen at about 11/8. Nothing to see here.

Heta/Lukeman - Martin's not without chances here, been playing better the last two weeks and he should sneak this more than one in three times - but not that much more. bet365's 13/8 is fairly close to where I'd have it, 7/4 looks like the correct line but it's another one where with the vig the bookies are giving up nothing.

Kurz/Wright - Do we keep on the Kurz hype train? I think it's an automatic play, 0.1u Kurz 3/1, someone who does what Kurz has done in the qualifier and then against Slevin and Clayton should be considered a strong enough opponent that he easily has more than a 25% chance against Peter Wright in his current form. Especially as match six of a card in Germany, regardless of how much they love Peter there.

Humphries/Wade - Damn, Wade is continuing to look strong. Maybe the best he's looked since the UK Open win? Humphries on the other hand also looked phenomenal in his first game as a major champion. I've got 71% Luke, he's 2/5 in a few places which is the exact corresponding line, so no bet.

Cross/Smith - Hmm, thought the markets might favour Michael a bit more, what with being the world champion and that, and ignore that the bulk of his games this season haven't been great (or at least world class level, still very good compared to mere mortals, or the bulk of the 128 for that matter) and actually Cross is outplaying him overall. They're not, but they're not really offering what I'm seeking on Smith here, I'd have shaded it as Cross 10/11 whereas you can get Cross 11/10, Betfair has 6/5 which I'm thinking about, I'll probably watch and see if the exchanges go out to about 2.3 or there abouts and then have a small play myself.

Will be watching the rugby later so no future tips likely, if Kurz does win then I think that we probably get an overreaction in pricing for the quarters and the value goes sadly.

No comments:

Post a Comment