Saturday 28 October 2023

Euros round two

What a couple of days of action! The number 1 seed gone, the defending champ gone, the tournament favourite should have been gone (Madars isn't going to get over that one in a while unfortunately), and while there's plenty of big guns still in there, it's already looking a bit of an interesting tournament. Up to first to ten now, while (as we've discussed before) it doesn't give as much of an advantage to the better player as many think, every little helps, so let's go with round two.

Dobey/Bunting - Chris took care of a slightly off Chisnall fairly comfortably, while Stephen eliminated Schindler even more solidly, and this one rates to be extremely close with the two of them side by side on scoring in the last six months. Maybe Dobey has the slightest of slight edges, but with the market shading him only a slight favourite as well, there's no betting interest here.

Price/Aspinall - Gerwyn didn't really need to get out of second gear to beat Keane Barry, while Nathan was asked a few questions by Searle and the 6-3 scoreline could easily have been closer on another day. Nathan's got decent chances here, it's more than 40% - but it's not really that much more than 40%, and with the market not giving us better than 13/8, while it's an OK price, I'm not feeling sufficient certainty about our edge to recommend a play here.

van Veen/Gurney - Gian looked excellent in eliminating Damon Heta, while Daryl continues an under the radar excellent season dropping just the two legs to Josh Rock who was averaging a ton. This seems moderately tight again, with Gian having an edge but it's only 55/45 or there abouts, and the market either isn't sufficiently on the GvV hype train or recognises Gurney's playing well, as they're only offering 11/10. No play here.

Smith/Wright - Matchup of players who did for our bets (two up, two down, tiny profit) - Michael didn't need to do anything special against Barney, while Peter forced a big comeback against Clemens, finishing in style in a decider, but while Wright played well Gabriel should really be finishing from there. Smith's got an edge, but it's not by that much, he's maybe playing better on TV than the floor where the bulk of the data is here so let's call it 60/40. Wright's 6/4, Smith's 4/7, we can move on easily.

Cross/Noppert - Rob won as expected against Dimitri, while Danny was outstanding in whitewashing Andrew Gilding, only trailing van Veen for the highest average of the round. Cross looks the better player overall though, with winning chances getting closer to 65% than 60%, and the market appears to have recognised it somewhat, pricing him at 4/6, which is better than break even but, like with other games, I don't have the confidence in such a small edge to recommend a play, particularly with Noppert's first round performance fresh in the memory.

Wade/de Sousa - James was pretty darned mediocre against Dirk, but with the Dutchman apparently struggling with some sort of injury he didn't need to be, while de Sousa got maybe the upset of the round in defeating Jonny Clayton, being the beneficiary of a comedy miscount for a change (Clayton going 18, 20 bull on 86 for reasons unknown). This rates to be extremely close - I'm actually seeing de Sousa as a tiny favourite in the projections (so small, it's closer to 50% than 55%), but with a decent consistency advantage to Wade, so I'm calling this a pure flip. The market likes Wade somewhat, and 13/10 on the Portuguese number one is the closest I've seen to a bet yet - 7/5 would probably be enough for a small nibble, so consider him if the market moves or you see better on exchanges.

van Gerwen/Pietreczko - Michael needed to dodge match darts against Madars Razma, while Ricardo got ahead early against Ross Smith and made no mistake seeing it out with an average solidly into three figures. Pietreczko isn't going to be intimidated given he defeated MvG on the way to winning his Euro Tour title, but he is a significant underdog here, not even projecting to win one in four, with the lines putting van Gerwen at 3/10, we're not even slightly interested in this one.

Humphries/Ratajski - Luke dropped one leg against Dolan in a match that was as comfortable as we thought it might be, while Krzysztof nearly hit a nine in a competitive game against Joe Cullen, which saw the usual Sportradar fuck up and scrambling to get the statistics from it. Luke's the better player, and while Ratajski is someone we do rate, he's a pretty big dog here in the 70/30 range, which I thought might be tighter. Luke's 1/3 so we're not touching that, Ratajski is nowhere near long enough to consider, we'd need more than 3/1 to even start thinking about it and with the market vig we're not there.

So no bets, but there's some spots where if you take a slightly more optimistic perspective on some players, you might find a bet of your own which would at least be break even. Should be back before the quarters.

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