Wednesday 25 October 2023

Euros round one

Well that was one heck of a Pro Tour series, with unexpected winners and a lot of surprising deep runs, which have really thrown the cat amongst the pigeons in terms of the worlds race - I was thinking £25k would be enough, now I'm thinking that it could need nearer to £26k to be sure? Guess a lot will depend on the strength of field of PC29/30, we'll see. Anyway, we've got another major incoming, I'll hold off on new FRH rankings until after we're done, but let's look at round one:

Noppert/Gilding - Feels like neither is in top form, despite Noppert getting a Pro Tour win about a month ago, maybe he has the slightest of edges at around 55/45. Gilding's a touch longer than that, but only in some places and not longer enough to recommend a play.

Aspinall/Searle - Both appear quiet since the Matchplay at least, but the numbers are still solid for both, especially Nathan who looks to edge this around 55-60% of the time. He's 8/11, which looks a perfect line.

Chisnall/Dobey - Dave's been one of the standout players of the season, while Dobey is playing strong stuff, just not getting the results overly frequently, but still looks to be favoured about the same amount Aspinall is. The market puts him as at evens, which we'll take, 0.25u Dobey evs, ideally we'd want slightly odds against, but with this looking like a good spot for Chisnall to be under maybe more pressure given the seeding, I'll go with evens.

Cross/van den Bergh - Rob's defending champions money, but I don't think that'll matter so much against someone in such mediocre form as DvdB, Cross projecting just over a two in three favourite in this one. 4/7 looks really close to a play, 8/13 (which might be out there on obscure books) might be worth a small play, I'd really want 4/6 before opening up on this one.

Price/Barry - Not really sure what Keane's done to get here, I don't remember too many deep runs but he's here and that'll help his rankings, and I think there's a possible lottery ticket here despite Price's obvious quality. I'd put Keane at approaching 30%, 7/2 is there or there abouts, but I think I'd really want 4/1 or better before I could recommend a play to be honest. It might move closer to the off in our favour so keep an eye out.

Wright/Clemens - Pretty much the best sort of draw Clemens could want in getting someone who's been relatively out of sorts all season. Wright isn't even on page one of the stats and this looks truly like a flip. As such, we can go with the price Ladbrokes are offering, 0.25u Clemens 29/20, lots of books have this at about 5/4 but we need to be approaching 6/4 before we really want to punt, and we can do.

Smith/van Barneveld - Not sure what Barney has really done this season to get into the field and remain a seed in the Pro Tours, but he's doing something, which is more than what could be said for Smith, at least outside of TV. Michael I think ought to be comfortable enough, but Barney's got chances in the low 40% bracket, which would indicate we're looking for better than 2/1. Ladbrokes give us that, 0.25u van Barneveld 23/10

Schindler/Bunting - Martin's still looking for a first tour win, while Bunting continues to fly under the radar in terms of quality. Very hard one to call, I can't split the pair, so with the market favouring Stephen, we're looking at Schindler on home soil here, but with the odds not really shifting beyond 5/4, we're not quite getting the edge we want in this one.

Heta/van Veen - Gian's making what seems like an effective TV debut here, and Heta's not a great draw, although maybe a bit better than it would have been this time last year. van Veen I think is playing well enough that he's got a clear 60/40 edge, so of course we're snapping off the odds against 365 are offering, 0.25u van Veen 11/10

Ratajski/Cullen - Krzysztof has a win in one of these and is another player that appears undervalued, recovering form after a bit of a blip around twelve months ago, while Cullen is without a title this year as far as I can see, and looks like he's playing a touch better than Ratajski is. The line favours Joe marginally so we're not really interested in this one from a betting perspective.

Rock/Gurney - Nice local derby here, Josh perhaps surprisingly hasn't added to his title haul this season (yet), while Gurney is playing at a deceptively strong level, and has been pretty much all season. He's playing well enough that this only seems like a 45/55 dog situation here, and it's fairly surprising that we can't get better than 13/10 on Daryl, making this a no bet, but maybe a line that moves if there's a bit of Rock hype nearer the off.

Clayton/de Sousa - Jonny has a Euro Tour win this season, which is a lot more than Jose's done, it being hard to recall too much that he's done in 2023, but it's clearly been enough to get into the field. Clayton's around a two in three favourite in the market - maybe it should be a little bit tighter than that, but I don't think Jose's level of play is quite enough to really start considering 7/4 as a play.

van Duijvenbode/Wade - Dirk's been solid at floor level, but whiffed both finals at Euro Tour level and his best games seem to have been front loaded, which might help Wade, who feels like is playing at the best he has done for a few years. This appears really deceptive in terms of how close it is and I think Wade's got approaching 45% chances here - the market's caught on however and isn't offering better than 11/10 sadly.

Humphries/Dolan - Luke's broken through at major level and will look to go back to back against Dolan, who's not bad, but with scoring only just over 90 in the sample I'm looking at, feels like is making up the numbers at this level. Humphries looks like he should win somewhere between three in four and four in five times - so 2/7 looks a perfect line.

van Gerwen/Razma - Michael's actually outside the top three in scoring over the last six months, which does surprise but he'll have more than enough for Madars here, whose scoring is way down but appears to have just about enough that we're not just going to autoclick on van Gerwen at 1/6. If anything, we should be considering the 5/1 on Razma we can see here and there. There's a skill differential, but it's not quite as big as the market suggests.

Pietreczko/Smith - The newest Euro Tour winner on home soil against the defending champion is a real intriguing game to finish, this one should mean a little bit more for both, we'll see how it goes but Ross is hitting form at the right time having binked the latest Pro Tour, and should grab this one a touch closer to 65% of the time than 60%. The market gives us 8/11 which is close to worth considering.

That's the lot, fill your boots.

No comments:

Post a Comment