Friday 13 October 2023

Hildesheim round one morning real quick post

Was meaning to get this out last night but was pretty wiped out, been under the weather all week so will just get this out sharpish and to the point.

Krcmar/Joyce - Looks a tight one on paper. Have Joyce as a tiny favourite, might be playing a bit better in general than Krcmar is, 8/13 might be a little bit of an exaggeration but I'm not liking the idea of jumping all over Boris at 6/4.

Lukeman/Razma - Another tight one on paper, here I've got Razma as a tiny favourite in the numbers, but it feels like Lukeman's improved somewhat over the last few months after a moderately barren first half of the season, so I'll call this one a pure flip. Again the market is a little bit off on this one, rating Razma as a 6/4 dog - if I restrict the data to just H2 of 2023, that's exactly what the projections say, so I guess it's a case of if you want to trust longer term quality or more recent form. With Madars needing the win to sure up a spot at Dortmund, there's that additional added pressure, so I'm fine with not going for it all things considered.

Waites/Killington - Bit of a free hit for both here, not heard a massive amount from either all season and neither are remotely near the Dortmund scenarios as they'd both need to bink. I was going to say this was a play on Killington looking at the initial line on oddschecker of evens, given I'm seeing it 65/35 - while George is a bit more inconsistent, he is scoring more than Scott is and I can't justify moving things down to more than 60/40, but when you go into the individual bookies, everywhere's shifted to 8/11, 4/6 sort of lines (indeed, a quick F5 of the main page does shift a best price into 4/5), which isn't really enticing.

Lennon/Kirchmann - Lennon's probably safe for the worlds already, but getting a HNQ in round one should be the safety net he needs. We still think Lennon's really good and just not getting the results, Kirchmann is relatively unknown but did finish the quali with back to back 90 averages running through Schlichting and Gotthardt 10-1 combined, so can clearly play somewhat - that's enough to say not to jump on to 1/7 on Lennon, as weirder things have happened.

Sedlacek/Soutar - Probably too much to ask for either player in this all-hair derby to get to Dortmund, but both are on the outside looking in for the worlds, but not by much, so it's kind of important for both players here. Another one that appears way too close to call, market putting Soutar at evens and Sedlacek slightly odds on appears perfectly fair to me.

Slevin/Kurz - The second HNQ comes in, and Kurz looked really, really good yesterday - 90 average or better in all five matches going 25-8 in legs is the sort of thing we thought he would be able to do more often if he set his mind to getting on the tour what must be at least five years ago now. Slevin, after what looked like a really promising start to the season, has failed to deliver somewhat since and is looking like real run of the mill scoring and I can only say he's worth the bet against given how good Nico looked yesterday - 0.25u Kurz 21/10 on Ladbrokes.

Smith/Pilgrim - Weird one where the veteran tour card holder with bundles of experience is the underdog to the non-card holder, but that's kind of where we are at, and it doesn't seem ridiculous - Darryl has been doing some fantastic stuff around the non-128 world and we've got enough data that using the master computer seems fair - and that says he should win five in eight games. So more or less bang on the 8/13 quoted.

Kovacs/van Dongen - Patrik makes another appearance on the Euro Tour, still yet to really trouble us and the numbers have not been fantastic, particularly given he's facing Jules, who's looked much, much improved over the last 2-3 months. I'm not sure than him being priced at near 5-1 on is necessarily a true reflection of the difference in quality between the players, but we can only get 4/1 on Kovacs and I don't see him winning much more than 20% of the time, if that much at all, to recommend a play.

I'll put out the evening session in a separate post, might be soon after, might be at lunchtime.

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