Saturday 14 October 2023

Hildesheim round two - almost perfect

Very happy with yesterday. Scoreline flattered Kurz a bit and Slevin was probably value for at least one more leg if not a couple, but the win wasn't in doubt, Monk got home, then with Evans we're mostly looking for signs that we thought that Dobey 80% was incorrect - I think getting a shot at a 180 then two further match darts is enough. Sure, it'd be nicer for our book to actually hit on one of them, but it's process we're interested in, Evans is one we've touched on a couple of times before this season and we've hit before, and with him in a provisional worlds spot, he may be one we revisit in the near future. Real quick today so apologies for that, but quick is better than nothing:

Cross/van Veen - Nope, Cross correctly small favourite
Searle/Lukeman - Line might be favouring Searle a tad too much but still nope
Noppert/van Dongen - Think they've correctly recognised that Jules is doing better of late and cut the lines just enough that we can't play it as a small flier
Heta/Pilgrim - I mean this is a real tough one to judge. Head says Pilgrim might be small value but at the same time says that betting anyone who isn't a card holder at shorter than 2/1 against Heta is insanity
van Duijvenbode/Killington - Close to a Killington play, but need a bit more than 3/1, 4/1 I'd probably shoot
Rock/Bunting - Either the market's soured on Rock a lot, or Bunting's secret's out. Either way, Stephen's too short to consider and there's not enough value on Josh either
Clayton/Kurz - I feel like 4/1 ought to be considered, but Jonny's just been so solid this season I think that he doesn't allow the half chances that Nico may need to bring this one home
Smith/Gurney - Smith priced with small edge, this seems fine, maybe the short notice callup (how short though? When did Price say no?) affects him a little bit but that's too hard to quantify, if it's an issue at all
Cullen/Monk - I'm sort of half tempted with Monk again given 3/1 is available, but with Joe looking decent of late and Arron not exactly setting the world on fire yesterday, I'm OK to just say no to this one
Chisnall/Clemens - Line looks alright. Gabriel has a bit more than a one in three shot
Aspinall/Wade - Kind of similar to the above except Wade has a few more percent
Schindler/Pietreczko - Interesting dynamic, another 60/40 sort of game which the market has correctly priced with Martin being favoured
van Gerwen/Lennon - Lennon wasn't convincing yesterday, but we know he's been playing much better than his results for a long time now and is awfully underrated. 0.1u Lennon 5/1, I don't expect this to work much more than 30% of the time, but 17% of the time is break even and it feels clearly more than that to me
Wright/Dobey - Might be small value on Dobey here. Got him a smidgeon over 60%, so 4/5 on Ladbrokes, especially given he's dodged one bullet and might be in a spot where he goes on a run, might be worth a gander
Humphries/Krcmar - Luke's going to be too good. 4/1 might be slightly harsh on Boris, but only slightly
Smith/Soutar - Same as above, except move Alan's price in half a point and move his percentage chances up two or three

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