Friday 13 October 2023

Hildesheim round one evening

Let's continue while I've just got a few things refreshing at work:

Wilson/van Veen - Looks rather one sided this one, James will hit decent performances here and there but has never really regained the levels he was at within the BDO, or when he was in the periphery of the top 32 for that matter. Gian we know all about at this stage, maybe the odds listed are a slight exaggeration as I've got Wilson as probably closer to 30% than 20% to win it, but 7/2 doesn't seem unreasonable.

Hempel/Monk - Arron's had a few decent runs and games here and there, while Florian's been mostly anonymous for some time but has also had an occasional good game more often of late. Looks about 60/40 Monk to me, Monk has a fairly bad consistency score but so does Hempel, I don't think the home crowd will be that big a deal on a Friday night session, 0.25u Monk 6/5

Klaasen/Wade - Would be great to see Jelle back on the tour, but the numbers are not inspiring and against someone of Wade's calibre and consistency, it's hard to see the former Lakeside champion making any sort of inroads in this one that often. Fairly limited data says 35% but looking at how that's constructed it's a clear overestimate, Wade being 1/3 looks just fine to me.

van der Voort/Gurney - I'm not sure if I can recall a single game of Vincent's this season, and he is currently a fair bit out of the world championship picture which would seriously hurt his chances of retaining a card just over twelve months from now - if he doesn't decide to just pack it in as I believe he's at least mentioned as a possibility in some interviews. Daryl's continuing to appear in major events and has appeared to be trending upwards decently this year, and a position as a solid favourite is more than justified, I'm seeing right in the middle of 70% and 75%, so a price of 4/11 looks spot on.

Pietreczko/Mansell - Ricardo's been real unfortunate to miss majors this year, and he still has some work to do to get to Dortmund - one win over Mickey would probably do it, a Sunday appearance would surely lock it up, but Mansell's not been playing bad this year at all and his scoring is at a point where this really does look too close to call. 11/8 on Mansell is not a necessarily bad punt, I guess it comes down to if you think that the home crowd will be more of a factor than Ricardo presumably knowing that this is an important game. Make your own call.

Clemens/Jansen - Clemens is correctly a favourite here, it feels such a long time ago since Danny won that title out of nowhere, and while he's been pretty poor since, there have been some signs of improvement, albeit occasional. Gabriel being 1/4 is a tad harsh, but I'm just not comfortable looking at Danny until he's the inverse price - which he clearly isn't.

Dobey/Evans - Really important game for Chris here, currently in position 33 for Dortmund, a win would bump him above Beaton and level with Dolan, neither of whom are here (not sure what the countback situation is with the latter), and while this is in no way the worse draw he could get, Lee isn't someone you can take for granted, he is in a worlds spot right now and a steady 89 rate of scoring is enough to keep Dobey honest here. Sure, Dobey is favoured, but I'm going to take a stab against him, 0.1u Evans 4/1 on 365, this is one that's going to not work a lot of the time, but if I've got Lee as just over 30% and he's priced at 20%, that's too much edge to not have a small shot at.

Bunting/de Graaf - Jeffrey's in again through the Nordic tour, but he's got probably the worst draw he could have got, Stephen's going to continue to just plug away and put up great numbers quietly, and looks like he'll outclass de Graaf here. 5/1 on Jeffrey looks just about perfect.

So two in the evening session to add to Kurz in the afternoon session.

No comments:

Post a Comment