Friday 6 October 2023

GP quarters

Dobey got it done to further push us into the black for the tournament, which would have been better if we'd have had the stones to actually go with Schindler as well. Do we like anything for the quarters?

Dobey/Cullen - Maybe we go with this? Dobey's slightly odds on at 5/6, but I'm thinking he's probably got slightly better chances than that, pushing up to around 60%. That's not enough for me, Joe's not exactly been playing badly so I'm happy enough to say that we don't have enough edge.

Price/Schindler - Probably the end of the road for Martin here, although Price has looked less than convincing and that 3-0 second round win was a bit misleading. Feels like a classic 75/25 sort of game, and Schindler's 10/3, so nothing really doing here.

Smith/Gilding - Michael's cruised through to this stage with very little resistance, while Gilding has been a bit fortunate to get to this stage, numbers not looking great and it's probably another case where he's probably dropping out at this stage. Projections are actually giving Andrew a bit more of a chance than the market is, floating around the 35% mark, such is the relative mediocrity of Smith's game this year - so we ought to be somewhat interested in odds approaching 3/1, the short term statistics are just too much of a turn off to realistically consider this one. Easy to believe this'll be a case of Smith stepping the game up when it matters.

Wright/Humphries - Should we be firing on Humphries in this one? Luke's not dropped a set yet, but the averages are kind of meh and he needed every leg in four of those five sets. Wright's not been good this year but the raw averages for this tournament look a bit higher than Luke's are. I'm seeing around 75% chances for Luke, maybe a touch more, I think this is enough to go with, 0.25u Humphries 1/2 with Coralbrokes, widely available 4/9 seems also fine, we've got enough edge here to fire on a favourite.

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