Wednesday, 29 March 2017

Odds and sods

Few random things that aren't worthy of a post on their own:

- I've added a few darts links to the sidebar. I'd add some forums but the only one that was not completely terrible (but suffered from terrible moderation) seems to have died.

- Paul Hogan hit a nine in the home internationals and nobody seemed to notice. I'll probably add the stats from that event to the database as although I assume it can't be ranked it is at least competitive for those that are in it and anything on BDO players is surely useful.

- Watching events live. I'd love to go more. I've been twice - the first time was on the European Tour in Munich (the one Henderson made the final of) where I went to the afternoon session on the final day, and it was absolutely worth it, although the tables had sold out. Eight matches of high quality, good reasonably priced beer, pleasant atmosphere, no complaints (apart from the comedy price they were selling Eclipse Pro's at). I also went to the opening session of the Grand Prix last year - nowhere near as good. Televised so absolutely masses of downtime, a late start on a Sunday evening, only having Foster's (no Guinness in Dublin is surely a first), no facilities to pay by card or withdraw cash, ran so slowly I had to miss the last three games in order to get the last tram back because the venue is in the middle of nowhere, and badly directed. Who knew the Citywest wasn't located at the tram stop with Citywest in the name? Me and all the German leprechauns for a few. Get it in the city, or, better, now that you've removed the free Irish entrants, over here. Maybe in the north - we have the Matchplay and that's it. Worlds are in London. UK Open was up here but now it's in Minehead like the Players Championship Finals. European Championship is in Belgium. Grand Slam would just about be doable but I have no reason to ever go to Wolverhampton.

- Six events over the next six weekends is quite packed. I should hopefully be able to get bets for round 1 of the next Euro event up as it's over Easter, the others might be a push with work.

Monday, 27 March 2017

He's consistently inconsistent

Thinking about the comments on Huybrechts in the previous post, I've had a quick thought about how to factor consistency using the stats that I have available. It seems quite easy to do - multiply the number of legs won by 501, total up the number of visits in winning legs, bang, a figure for average in winning legs.

Of course, my stats don't differentiate between a 13 darter and a 15 darter, but I don't see that as an issue, that you kill in 1 dart in the fifth visit just means that your skill is in giving yourself more time. A fifteen is a fifteen - if it's hitting tops on a third dart after missing two, it reflects that you've scored heavily earlier. If you check out 170 to do so, it reflects your finishing prowess. It should even out.

The losing average figure has one issue - it can be inflated or deflated by your opponent to an extent. If you leave 81 after nine darts and your opponent goes out, that's nice. If you end up drakking about on the doubles because your opponent is doing the same, then it's not, but that has a solution - hit your doubles.

So what does the table look like? Let's take the top 32 in the world as of right now (official, not mine), and sort by losing average minus winning average. The higher this figure is, the more it should show that you're keeping good enough order consistently when you're not winning. In theory. Let's go:

1 Phil Taylor -0.21
2 Peter Wright -0.46
3 James Wade -1.24
4 Gary Anderson -1.25
5 Jamie Caven -1.37
6 Benito van de Pas -1.42
7 Dave Chisnall -1.53
8 Mark Webster -2.13
9 Raymond van Barneveld -2.14
10 Daryl Gurney -2.36
11 Steve Beaton -2.47
12 Ian White -2.58
13 Cristo Reyes -2.60
14 Mensur Suljovic -2.70
15 Simon Whitlock -3.04
16 Gerwyn Price -3.06
17 Stephen Bunting -3.22
18 Michael Smith -3.51
19 Michael van Gerwen -3.87
20 Terry Jenkins -3.89
21 Justin Pipe -3.91
22 Joe Cullen -4.20
23 Jelle Klaasen -4.24
24 Adrian Lewis -4.34
25 Brendan Dolan -4.52
26 Mervyn King -4.82
27 Darren Webster -5.10
28 Alan Norris -7.03
29 Robert Thornton -7.99
30 Vincent van der Voort -8.68
31 Kim Huybrechts -8.68
32 Kyle Anderson -8.78

There's some interesting figures there, but it does seem to have some correlation with the rankings as a whole - of the worlds top eight, six of them are in this top ten list. It also does seem to look in general like you have streakier players towards the bottom, and more consistent players towards the top - Taylor, Wright and Wade would be in most people's lists as for the most consistent on the circuit. Let's quickly knock some outliers out - Caven is likely so high as his average in winning legs is horrible at below 86 - he's consistent, but in a bad way. van Gerwen is likely so low because his average in winning legs is over 101 - you can't physically score that in a losing leg unless the other guy goes out in 15 on throw or 12 to break. He has the second highest losing average in my database (less than half a point behind Anderson, minimum 10 legs won), but that can't counteract being the highest in terms of winning average by a clear 2 points.

Thoughts on the methodology?

Sunday, 26 March 2017

Euro Tour 1 aftermath

Before that, props to Aaron Dyer on getting another Challenge Tour win, and also Lee Evans on picking up one as well.

So Peter Wright's finally got over the van Gerwen final issue, congrats to him but I do wonder what would have happened if MvG, after starting leg 3 with a maximum, had managed to kill the 321 left in 18 darts, rather than letting Wright break to get back into things. We'll never know.

Best player performance: There was quite a lot of chalk here, the quarter finals had filtered out all the qualifiers and all the top four seeds were still left, I'll give it to the champion - having to come through two tight struggles against Kist and Price, but also looking superb in rolling over Bunting, Huybrechts and van Gerwen for a loss of just seven legs in those games.

Best single match performance: Johnson over Wade is a contender, there's lots of good scoring from plenty of players, Wattimena over Roith catching the eye, but I'll give it to van Gerwen over Wattimena, finishing every leg in under 15 darts, two of them in twelve or less, only losing the one leg where he'd left 13 after twelve darts.

Worst player performance: Wade blowing a 5-1 lead obviously. Smith probably close.

Worst single match performance: Jan Dekker, after rolling over Michael Smith like it's an easy thing to do, he then loses 6-0 to Benito van de Pas, averaging 71 in the process. Not like Benito played that well there, he only finished two of his legs in fifteen darts or less, Dekker could easily have come close, he just opted not to do so.

New adjusted rankings:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 James Wade
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic (UP 1)
9 Phil Taylor (DOWN 1)
10 Jelle Klaasen
11 Kim Huybrechts
12 Benito van de Pas (UP 1)
13 Simon Whitlock (DOWN 1)
14 Ian White
15 Alan Norris (UP 1)
16 Michael Smith (DOWN 1)
17 Gerwyn Price
18 Daryl Gurney
19 Robert Thornton
20 Mervyn King (NEW)

I've also managed to get a pivot table on my huge data spreadsheet to work, kind of, so I can now see data from the nearly 7000 legs of darts it knows about (beginning from September 2016). Taking a 30 leg won minimum as a cutoff (which covers over fifty players), I can now see at a glance who's the best at various stats. So here's how things stand:

Highest percentage of legs in 12 darts or less:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Kim Huybrechts
4 Adrian Lewis
5 Raymond van Barneveld
6 Mervyn King
7 Phil Taylor
8 Peter Wright
9 Vincent van der Voort
10 Jelle Klaasen

Highest percentage of legs in 15 darts or less:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Adrian Lewis
3 Gary Anderson
4 Raymond van Barneveld
5 Kim Huybrechts
6 Peter Wright
7 David Pallett
8 Phil Taylor
9 Mensur Suljovic
10 Simon Whitlock

Highest percentage of legs in 18 darts or less:
1 Vincent van der Voort
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Mensur Suljovic
4 Phil Taylor
5 Raymond van Barneveld
6 Gary Anderson
7 Daryl Gurney
8 Robbie Green
9 Peter Wright
10 Cristo Reyes

Highest average in losing legs:
1 Gary Anderson
2 Michael van Gerwen
3 Phil Taylor
4 Peter Wright
5 Raymond van Barneveld
6 Dave Chisnall
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic
9 Cristo Reyes
10 Daryl Gurney

Think the most surprising thing to me is Huybrechts - how the hell has he got relegated from the Premier League? Before people start screaming sample size at me, Huybrechts is in the top five for most legs won in this sample - behind only MvG, Wright, Wade and Barney. It can only be inconsistency - in the legs he's lost, he averages only 88.

Euro Tour 1 Final Day

Maybe I should have titled this post Back in Black, given that's what Darren Johnson has made me. There's been a lot of Wade collapses in the past but that is quite the special one. Pity that van den Bergh couldn't complete the sweep, but I don't expect to win every long shot I back, only for them to win enough that I end up in the long run. Winning at least one leg would have been nice though...

Quite a lot of chalk yesterday, although the two seeds (other than Wade) that didn't get through are somewhat of a shock to me, Smith seemed to be finally getting it, then to go 5-0 down to Dekker? I had a brief look and it just looks like missed doubles, but still... Whitlock not getting close to Painter is worse, letting him break in 18, hold in 24, that's a very poor showing.

Late start today (pesky clock change), don't see anything I like betting wise in the last 16. Doubt I am able to look too much at the quarter finals, maybe if the odds are up very fast before I head out for the England game, I don't know. With the way the draw looks I can't envisage there being too much value, maybe if we get something like Price/Suljovic and Price isn't the favourite it might be worth it, but I won't hold my breath.

Challenge Tour is also going on this weekend, interesting to see that Tabern and Lukeman's UK Open runs don't seem to be flukes, even if neither got over the line yesterday, Dyer who won the first one is a complete unknown to me, Milford I've at least notice pick up the odd Pro Tour cash and European Tour qualification, so maybe if he's able get in to some of the main tour events, he could start to make bigger moves. That said, I'd guess he's quite low down on the backfill list following Q-School, and due to the PDC's stupid European qualification changes it's not like he can bink qualification for one of those either.

Should be back later today, or at the latest tomorrow, with a round up of Hildesheim, in terms of my adjusted rankings Jenkins is already out of the top 20, to be replaced by King or Cullen, depending on if Cullen beats Suljovic. Bunting's the only other option but he'd need to final and he plays Wright next, so that's not that realistic. Suljovic can pass Taylor again with a win, Chisnall could move up to fourth potentially with Wade out already.

Friday, 24 March 2017

Euro Tour 1

Firstly, praise the sun! The current event on the dartsdata page has somehow made the UK Open scorelines reappear, so I've quickly noted down everything I need and will add them into the master computer this weekend, along with the information from this weekend's event. I may try and backfill some data from the Pro Tour, as it seems like a few games that were streamed are on Youtube. We'll see how much time I have.

Anyway, as usual Hopp somehow contrived not to qualify for this weekend's tournament. Information is incredibly limited as to what actually happened, but let's look at tomorrow. Odds are up pretty fast, everything apart from Whitlock/Painter is up, so let's go:

Price is just shorter than a 2:1 favourite, seems right, both are in good form
White's about the same against Bowles, think that's not right, Bowles couldn't manage a single fifteen darter which won't cut it against someone of White's calibre - 0.5u White 5/11
Klaasen is a dog to McGowan? I know there was an article on him having an injury, and by the looks of things he played like complete arse, but really? Probably should have watched last night to judge for myself. 0.5u Klaasen 11/8 anyway as McGowan wasn't exactly good today either
Smith's nearly 3/1 on, that seems very short against Dekker. Neither Dekker nor Quantock seemed that good scanning the numbers... will pass though as Smith seems to be remembering how to play darts
Reyes a 2:1 favourite against Nicholson, that doesn't seem like a bad punt, Paul only had a couple of fifteen darters today and Reyes is seeded for a reason - 0.5u Reyes 1/2
Huybrechts is a huge favourite against Portela which seems fine, Kim's game against Evetts was one of those I looked at earlier and that was exceptional darts
Bunting only a small favourite against Pallett. Bunting's game seems to have gone to pieces, and the times I've looked at Pallett he looks OK, but I need longer than is offered
Norris strong odds on against Corner. Will pass, Corner had a couple of OK legs and I do wonder if Norris blowing the chance he had against Price might have him slightly off his game
Johnson seems like a good bet against Wade - 0.25u Johnson 4/1, last four legs he won he ran off in 15 or less, he's off the back of a good Pro Tour run, it could happen
Chizzy almost a 3/1 favourite against van den Bergh, Dimitri looked on point today so will go for another dog gamble, 0.25u van den Bergh 11/4
Don't know much about Harvey. 102+ average is nice over a 10 leg match, but Benito's a different level
Wright 1/10 vs Kist? Come on
van Gerwen's even shorter against Wattimena
Suljovic has been a bit quiet since the worlds, so will avoid betting against King who's playing OK the last month despite a tempting price
Cullen probably isn't worth a bet against Bain, if Bain can turn over Dobey he might have chances

Monday, 13 March 2017

Players Championship 3/4, ET1 qualifiers

I leave the country for two minutes and all hell breaks loose! What on earth happened this weekend, crazy sets of results. Congrats to Rob Cross on, while playing to a very good standard, did win his title out of nowhere, Simon Whitlock on another win which gives him a big bump in my live rankings below, and Kim Huybrechts, Ryan Meikle and Joe Cullen on hitting nine darters.

Best weekend long performance - somewhat of a tricky one this, nobody made both quarter finals so it's hard to give it to someone on consistency for that, Cross would be an easy shout if he'd got further than the last 32 yesterday, Whitlock managed to go out in the first round, so I'm going to look lower down the order and see who managed to cash better than they would be expected to and qualified for the European Tour. King did the qualifying but missed one of the Pro Tour events completely, Paul Nicholson also had somewhat of a return to form with two cashes, qualification, and the scalp of Peter Wright, Jamie Bain got a couple of mincashes and qualified, Dobey continued to be solid. I'm going to give it to Bain - while it's only a couple of grand of prize money, I think he can be very happy with his returns.

Best tournament long performance - Darren Johnson. Cross would again be the easy call, but scalps of van Barneveld, Price, Norris and King doesn't look as impressive as beating Chisnall, van Barneveld (in rounds 1 and 2 for crying out loud), van de Pas and van Gerwen.

Best single match performance - Almost tempting to give it to Caven for whitewashing Wilson, but Willie O'Connor over Michael van Gerwen is more worthy.

Worst weekend long performance - Chuck could be close having won just four legs in two games against Terry Temple and Rob Cross. Bunting also had two first round defeats, to Andy Jenkins and the aforementioned Jamie Bain. That said, neither of those needed to qualify for Europe, and Brendan Dolan did. And didn't. He lost there to Darron Brown, not even in the final round, and fell first round to Rob Cross and Robert Thornton in the main floor events. Thornton beating Dolan was the only reason he didn't miss on all three completely either. But I'm going to go for a big name in Peter Wright - won through the first round each time, but then lost in round 2 to Paul Nicholson and Christian Kist, which for our newest major champion can only be described as a major underperformance.

Worst single match performance - Few contenders here, Barney using the Barney rule to play the UK qualifier then lose to John Bowles is probably the pick from the European qualifier, Wilson losing 6-0 to Caven is comical, but I'll opt for Jamie Lewis for forcing me to put Terry Roach on my ranking spreadsheet, thanks to being unable to win a single leg.

Still need to update the running betting total following the UK Open (edit - 14/03/17 - now amended). Something to do this week along with continuing to collate the live data.

Updated live top 20 rankings:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 James Wade
5 Dave Chisnall
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Phil Taylor
9 Mensur Suljovic
10 Jelle Klaasen
11 Kim Huybrechts
12 Simon Whitlock (UP 2)
13 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 1)
14 Ian White (DOWN 1)
15 Michael Smith
16 Alan Norris
17 Gerwyn Price
18 Daryl Gurney
19 Robert Thornton
20 Terry Jenkins

Friday, 10 March 2017

Weekend update

My takes on what'll happen in tonight's Euro Tour qualifier and the two Players Championship events this weekend won't be up until at the earliest Monday, or more likely Tuesday - I'm away for the weekend without access to be able to update. The qualifier should be of great interest - there's some big names there including Kyle Anderson, Steve Beaton, Chris Dobey, Brendan Dolan, Mervyn King, Adrian Lewis, Robert Thornton, Raymond van Barneveld and both the Websters. That's very strong and with 18 places up for grabs, it's going to take some good play for the upcoming players who have got good starts to the season to even qualify, add on that only Gary Anderson out of the top 16 in the Pro Tour rankings didn't enter, going more than one and done will be really tricky.

I haven't watched a single dart of the Premier League, but the level of parity is very surprising - even Huybrechts and Klaasen, who are currently bottom and two points adrift of Lewis, are getting in positions to win, Kim drawing three, Klaasen winning one, drawing another, being in a good position against Barney yesterday etc. With three weeks to go before the bottom two cutoff, it's still wide open, Klaasen's run in isn't the hardest, Huybrechts' is tougher, they both have to play Lewis which will be critical. Meanwhile at the top, Wright and van Gerwen look like the picks so far, but it wouldn't take much for someone just below to go on a run and claw them back. I might watch some of next week just because it's Rotterdam, we'll see.