Sunday, 15 April 2018

Frustrating

I suppose that's how I would describe how yesterday went - even in non-darts betting my horse in the National sweep fell at the first hurdle. West running into peak Webster is fine, he'd have needed a twelve to get anywhere before Webster opened up an unassailable lead, White won a scrappy game which is fine, then we have Beaton seemingly unable to find a big treble and getting multiple bounceouts, Humphries pushing Cullen close but Joe held in five visits in the decider so fair play, our two big underdog shots had the expected results (might have hoped for more than 1 leg between the pair though), then Nicholson. Oh dear Paul. Hold to go 5-2 up, analysis is looking accurate, Benito holds in five visits, fair enough, but then you leave 40 after twelve on your own throw, miss all three, get broken, get let back in in the next leg on 80, pin the treble but then miss two more match darts, then in the deciding leg hit four straight tons but then throw 41, then miss two more match darts trying to clear up 60 and lose. That's the difference between a small quarter or so unit loss and being stuck nearly a unit and a half. Oh joy.

Last sixteen kicking off in about an hour, let's see what we've got:

van Gerwen/Tabern - this one shouldn't last long. Tabern might actually have better chances than the 12/1 offered suggests but not by much.
Chisnall/White - actually getting quite close in the race to see who's number 2 in England in the FRH rankings (with Wade and Webster not too far behind either), I'm projecting this as close to evens so there may be some value on Ian, but firing an 83 average yesterday when Chisnall is sweeping someone with a 108 average (so completely unassisted) doesn't fill me with confidence.
Gurney/King - good win for Mervyn yesterday, but Gurney's probably a bit of a tougher ask, I'm projecting 70/30 which is close enough to the line that there's no opportunity here.
Smith/Klaasen - Jelle advanced yesterday over a pretty mediocre opponent to snap a losing streak, Smith isn't a mediocre opponent who was given a tough test by Steve Lennon, who's quietly getting a reputation as a solid challenger, albeit not getting the results. Think Jelle's just too inconsistent to realise his expectation, I think the line could be a bit tighter but there's not much there, if he'd averaged more than 83 and thrown more than one five visit leg then I might be a bit more excited.
Hopp/van de Pas - should be Hopp/Nicholson but let's not revisit that, Max got past Peter Wright from 4-4 with a break to win in the tenth, thanks to Peter managing twelve darts in a row without a treble, which allowed Max to completely whiff on 8 for the match and return to pin double two on a sixth visit. I've got Max up at around 70% and he's not priced like that, 0.25u Hopp 4/6.
Cullen/Larsson - nothing much on Daniel who got a bye thanks to Whitlock's illness, apart from the first leg he won Joe's finishing was very solid, so he should get home in this one.
Suljovic/Price - match up of the two relegated players, Mensur averaging about a point better than Price did, but Price's floor form has been good and I don't get why the market is so far in favour of Suljovic. I don't see anything on Twitter to indicate there's a mystery injury so let's bet, 0.25u Price 5/2.
Cross/Webster - had both of these to lose yesterday, neither did, touched on the Darren match a bit earlier but Cross won 6-0 with all but one leg in fifteen darts, Webster is 4/1 but I'm only getting his chances at around 23% so I don't think there's really enough value to risk it here.

Now to catch up on the stats to date in time for the quarter finals.

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