Sunday 1 April 2018

Munich day 2 bets

Interesting day yesterday, real surprised to see Lewis go out but Meeuwisse hit some lights out darts that didn't give Lewis many chances from leg 8 onwards, and those that he did get he missed. Dobey probably played the best of everyone in that five leg spell, Aspinall's got to consider himself pretty unlucky (and me having bet on him) with the standard he played at but Lennon didn't give him much to work with apart from in a weak first leg from both, I'm happy with the Berndt bet, when betting at greater than 3/1 you're just hoping that they stay close often enough that they might get a chance, he managed to get match darts but couldn't take them, oh well. Can't complain about that one when we got out of jail with Tabern I guess.

Won't repost any stats with new data, as they're not going to change too much, but let's look at what lines oddschecker is showing today:

Price 8/11 v Humphries 6/4 - this ought to be a Price bet, and if Humphries starts like he did against O'Connor then Luke probably leaves himself too much to do, I just really wonder about Gerwyn's state of mind. Maybe with him finally being eliminated officially it's a weight off his shoulders he can start to play a bit more freely again, let's go with that assumption given the model's reckoning he wins 2 in 3 ignoring external factors, but lean smaller than we might have done normally - 0.25u Price 8/11

Chisnall 8/13 v Webster 6/4 - for all intents and purposes the market has this as 60/40, the model has shifted a little bit more in favour of Chisnall this morning by about a percentage point, but it's not quite enough to have any real edge, even taking into account Webster not playing that great against Dekker, which may have been down to travel, and if so he should be stronger today.

Huybrechts 8/13 v West 13/8 - basically the same line, except here I have the game being a lot closer. It's shifted a fair bit from yesterday's prediction given West didn't win a single leg in fifteen darts, but I think there's still about enough there that we can take a poke at this one with Kim not being in the greatest of form - 0.25u West 13/8

King 8/15 v Hopp 7/4 - I had both Rodriguez and Hopp as slightly longer than 2/1 shots before yesterday, so the line may hint at a King bet, it's shifted slightly further in favour of King, with Hopp only getting the two legs in par yesterday, but mix in that King's had continual health issues that could spring up at any time (although I think staying in Germany since Leverkusen and travelling across more leisurely may help that), Hopp's homefield advantage and that Hopp, as a confidence player, finally has a win, there's enough doubt to not bet.

Anderson 1/3 v Tabern 7/2 - Tabern got three legs in par yesterday, which didn't change the prediction at all from yesterday which put Tabern at around a 1 in 3 punt, which points to a bet. That Tabern let Wattimena win three legs where he'd had eighteen or more darts to win the leg is a bit of a concern, a lot of this being missed doubles where he didn't look really that close to hitting, but this seems like a value bet, i.e. one that we have to make even though it probably loses - 0.1u Tabern 7/2

Whitlock 4/9 v Brown 5/2 - Brown had little trouble with Langendorf yesterday, and it was a mix of four good legs that he won, two where he got there, two he should have won but didn't, letting Langendorf break in six visits, and one where Langendorf held pretty decently. I've got this at around even and remain unconvinced about Whitlock, Keegan's been playing well enough all season that this should be closer - 0.25u Brown 5/2

Norris 4/9 v Alcinas 21/10 - Antonio played well enough to overcome an in form James Wilson yesterday, taking three legs in par and taking what Wilson let him outside of that. I continue to have Norris as an underdog on projections so this may be an even stronger play than the Brown bet - 0.25u Alcinas 21/10

Gurney 1/4 v Meikle 4/1 - Odds seem about perfect, Meikle did what he needed to do but did not look good in the process, Gurney is a huge step up and should be an easy winner.

Cullen 1/3 v Meeuwisse 11/4 - Meeuwisse's performance yesterday has tightened up the projections enough that I've got it at 75/25 which is what the line is telling us, so nothing here, Cullen should come through and it's a big ask for Yordi to pull off the sort of heroics he did yesterday twice in a row.

White 10/11 v Bunting evs - White continues to be criminally underrated in the market, Bunting looked pretty good yesterday but over the course of the season he's not come close to White's standard, I have him at better than a two in three shot so this is easy, 0.5u White 10/11

Klaasen 9/5 v Wade 4/7 - Line looks really close to spot on in a rematch from last week, there's not enough value in either one to consider a bet, Wade should come through unless Jelle can find some good legs and hit a couple of twelves, ideally on the Wade throw.

Smith 4/9 v Dobey 11/5 - This should be a bit tighter than the line suggests, Dobey was really hot yesterday (although it'd be nicer if he'd cleaned the match up faster, heck, Schindler had a dart for 5-5 and the throw), and while Smith's started the season like a freight train there's enough edge here to go with the underdog, it should be a bit closer to 13/8 or so - 0.25u Dobey 11/5

Wright 2/9 v Payne 4/1 - Josh basically had one real good leg yesterday, making a meal over a game against Rasztovits where Michael managed to get a match dart, Peter's a huge step up and while I don't think he's quite as big a favourite as the line suggests, factor in recent form and I can't recommend a Payne bet.

Suljovic 2/5 v Noppert 21/10 - The model reckons that Noppert is a tiny favourite, but we're really short on Suljovic data and he continues to have a losing average well in excess of his winning average, he's effectively eliminated from the Premier League now so maybe he can relax a bit, but there's too much weird stuff going on here to bet. Noppert didn't exactly look good against Ratajski, who looked even worse.

van Gerwen 1/9 v Lennon 8/1 - Lennon dealt with Aspinall despite Nathan averaging 102, if he plays as he did then he's in with a shot, it's a long shot but it's better than an 8/1 shot. I tend to think he can't do that twice in a row and he'll give away a leg or two that he can't afford to.

Cross 2/9 v Clayton 9/2 - Line looks perhaps as if it's favouring Cross a bit too much, but Clayton looked right average yesterday apart from the couple of twelves he threw, that's not going to be any good against Cross.

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