Thursday, 12 April 2018

Saarbrücken round 1

Looks like a fairly solid field of qualifiers, there's a couple of randoms but as they've drawn each other it simply gives us a game to completely ignore rather than a couple we might try to take punts at, some odds are actually out so let's start projecting - everything's from 2018 in terms of sample:

Stevenson/Shepherd - 56/44, neither have had a bad start to the season but Stevenson's been a touch better. Line is way too close to the projections so nothing here.
Edgar/West - 47/53, the line has West as a huge favourite, Edgar's been very good but unlucky with draws, although he has posted on Twitter (probably jokingly) that he has some sort of minor injury. Will pass as such as the line's so wildly off that there's too much chance of shenanigans.
Jenkins/Menzies - 54/46, odds have Jenkins as the slight underdog, Menzies has done decently well so far in his PDC career but Terry's not been slouching and isn't rusty in the slightest, let's go here - 0.25u Jenkins 11/10.
Kuivenhoven/Muller - what the hell is this. Interesting to see new names I guess.
Dekker/Larsson - I don't have anything recent on Larsson. He hasn't been bad when we've seen him and there could be some value given Jan's propensity to not show up in Europe, go with it if you like but I'll hold off for now until we've seen him throw.
Eidams/Williams - 75/25, there's not a big sample on either, both just playing the UK Open qualifiers, but Eidams has a big edge on the stats, homefield advantage and more stage games. Worth the shot - 0.25u Eidams 8/13.
North/Noppert - 48/52, North's finally starting to get it on the stage, 5/4's not quite enough to risk anything against a quality operator.
Perales/Woodhouse - 49/51, this seems like one of these that we'd have no idea about in the pre-dartconnect era, the model has it real close but despite most places putting Woodhouse at 60% there's so much vig that I can't get anywhere near the edge I need to bet Perales.
Horvat/Tabern - Dragutin didn't play the UK Open qualifiers so I don't have recent data, I feel like the line seems right with Tabern being a smallish favourite.
Humphries/Huybrechts - 68/32, Ronny's dropped under the radar of late with just two cashes since the worlds, Luke's understanding the senior game a lot more now and this looks a good spot - 0.25u Humphries 8/13.
Lennon/Thornton - 63/37, Lennon played some proper darts in the last Euro Tour event, and I can only assume the market is this close on name value, seems like value here - 0.25u Lennon evs.
Lerchbacher/Hopp - 47/53, Hopp's returned to form hugely this past couple of weeks so probably has better chances than the projections suggest, Lerchbacher also has the home crowd to factor in so an 8/13 Hopp line doesn't look enticing either way.
van den Bergh/O'Connor - 77/23, van den Bergh has just been killing it without getting the results his play suggests, this really does seem like a keep backing him and eventually it'll work scenario, 0.5u van den Bergh 1/2.
Nicholson/Aspinall - 32/68, Aspinall has been one of the stand out players so far this season, and has done it quietly enough that these sorts of spots come up for us, 0.25u Aspinall 8/11.
Wade/Kanik - 75/25, Wade is probably the strongest player entering this round right now and the market is priced up accordingly, getting 5/1 on Kanik could be value but I'm not feeling it with the form Wade is in.
Brown/Wattimena - 67/33, what a match this could be to get the crowd fired up, two young quick players throwing some good stuff, so let's put it on last, jesus. Brown is priced well enough to bet here, 0.25u Brown 4/5.

That'll do for now, check back in tomorrow evening for second round projections and bets.

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