Saturday, 14 April 2018

Saarbrücken round 2

Not yet had time to put all of yesterday's results into the database, but six legs in the context of a 200, 300+ leg sample isn't going to make a huge difference to any projections. Looks like yesterday was bang on break even, I'm fine with Menzies playing well to come back and Nicholson playing well to pull away from Aspinall, Keegan Brown we'll never speak of again. Today here's what I like:

- West's had a quietly good start to the season, he comes in priced as a small underdog, my model has him as a small favourite, there's not much edge put averaging 99 makes me comfortable enough to think we're getting the better end of his range - 0.25u West 6/5.
- Have talked about White's form quite a bit, Menzies is also doing well but not quite in White's league, he had a great run of legs yesterday but even accounting for that White should still be better than a 2/1 favourite, and he isn't priced that way. Bit cautious given Menzies having a good game and relatively small sample, but 0.25u White 8/13 regardless.
- Price has looked much improved since the Premier League is behind him, he's a big favourite against Shepherd and is priced perfectly to match.
- Kuivenhoven's got no stats other than yesterday, his finishing speed wasn't impressive so I think Klaasen just rolls him here, at 2/9 I won't be betting it though.
- Beaton/Tabern could have been a major quarter final a decade ago, the market has this a bit closer than I think it should be, Beaton's not been spectacular and Tabern's made more noise but I think that's relative to expectations, even taking into account Alan's good finishing yesterday I've still got Steve at over 60% so 0.25u Beaton 4/5.
- Not a huge amount of data on Perales, he won yesterday through getting four legs in over six visits, that's not going to cut it against Chisnall.
- Lennon blitzed Thornton yesterday, Smith's a step up but he looked OK against van Gerwen, he's certainly a live dog but I've got Smith winning more than two times in three so we're not really given an edge to bet on Steve.
- King/Wade is a big clash, Wade looks too short to me but King's back could flare up at any time so I won't touch this.
- Gurney against a home player could be fun, Eidams did nothing yesterday to make me think that he can compete though, this is close to a Gurney bet even at 1/7 that's how one sided this could be.
- van de Pas is a favourite? What? That's the most ridiculous thing I've read all week, there's not a huge sample on Benito winning because he hasn't been winning but his losing average so far this year is 78 which says all you need to know, 0.5u Nicholson 6/5.
- van Gerwen/Noppert should go the way you think it'll go most of the time. It doesn't go that way enough of the time to not make us go 0.1u Noppert 9/1, that's too long, he's got at least a one in six shot.
- Wright/Hopp, oh boy this one will be red hot off the back of a van Gerwen game, the line looks close to spot on though, if Hopp can bring his recent for in then he has a shot but Wright should be too strong.
- Cullen against Humphries is intriguing, Luke threw in six five visit kills to beat Ronny Huybrechts and with Cullen being quite inconsistent this year I think we can value bet this one, I still have Cullen the favourite but more like a 10/11 shot, 0.25u Humphries 11/8.
- Suljovic/Wattimena is a bit of a clash of styles, Mensur's probably a bit too big of a favourite in the market but I do have limited data due to him missing a chunk of the Pro Tour, and he's now not got the Premier League commitments so it might be a bit misleading (see also Price, Gerwyn). Also you don't know how Wattimena will react to facing someone throwing darts that looked like one of my practice sessions.
- Last up is Cross/van den Bergh in a world championship rematch, that showed how close the two of them are relatively speaking and Dimitri has continued to play great stuff despite not getting the results to show for it. Cross is correctly a favourite but some of those prices are a bit silly, 0.25u van den Bergh 18/5.

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