Sunday 15 April 2018

Saarbrücken quarter finals

Ah, that's better. Thanks to Mensur for missing that match dart, has clawed back more than half of what we'd lost on this tournament to date. To the quarters:

One day I'll work out how to size images for Blogger right.

Interesting that the projections have all the matches with the higher seed around a 2/1 favourite, give or take a few percentage points - the King/Smith match (if you ignore William Hill obviously pricing it the wrong way round which will clearly be palped) and the Hopp/Cullen matches are in and around that area so I'll ignore them (possibly very tiny value on Smith at 8/15 I guess). The other two are a bit more interesting. Price has come through two close games, while Cross messed up a couple of attempts at the nine darter (having eight perfect in the final leg, missing double 12 by a mile) in what was a bit of a slug fest. Price and Cross split their series 1-1 on the Pro Tour last year, although both were already in the books this time last year, so it was while Cross had really yet started to motor, obviously Cross smashed Price up in the Premier League but that's an exhibition so who cares. We can get 7/2 Price which when the projections say he wins more than one time in three looks good. The van Gerwen/White game is also priced up with van Gerwen as too big a favourite for my liking. While van Gerwen's 14-4 up all time against White, and smacked him about in their last meeting 10-1 at the European Championship, there's hope here. White beat van Gerwen in their last European Tour match 6-1, and also whitewashed him in a Pro Tour final about two years ago. Some of their longer matches have also been quite close - 16-13 in the 2015 Matchplay quarter (the one van Gerwen won) and 10-8 in the 2014 UK Open quarter. We don't need this to work too often, and it has worked before, also couple in van Gerwen looking pretty ordinary in large parts of the game against Alan Tabern, White looking sublime in whitewashing Dave Chisnall (himself who'd just averaged 108 the day before) and White also having won a title in the last month, then I think for the second time this weekend we can go with the bet. I'm going to go small on both but the bets are:

0.1u Price 7/2
0.1u White 11/2

No comments:

Post a Comment