Sunday, 1 April 2018

Munich final day

Obviously pretty chuffed with how today's gone, had some players not show up but that's not a huge deal when more than were expected did so, there's lines up so let's look at round 3 - word in advance, do not expect any updates after this one before the end of the tournament, I've got a football double header tomorrow so will be just on the phone from about 10am and not be in any position to analyse the outcomes:

Smith/Wade - Smith looks around 63/37, he played pretty well against Dobey who wasn't playing badly but couldn't quite click into the extra gear needed against Smith when he was showing up. Wade took a while to get going and was a bit of a beneficiary of Klaasen throwing junk in leg 5, but did what was needed after that. Odds are giving it about 60/40 which is close enough to par that I'm not interested.

Suljovic/Hopp - my god, how are the fans going to react to this one? I've got this running at 65/35, and I've said repeatedly that the stats on Mensur are underestimating him as we've not got a metric ton worth of data due to no UK Open qualifiers, but we're being offered 3/1 on a confidence player that's come through two games already on home soil against someone whose main advantage on the European Tour will be negated to some extent. I don't think it's a big edge, so will play small - 0.1u Hopp 3/1

Cullen/West - Cullen hit an absolute god shot to take out Meeuwisse, nailing 164 to finish with Yordi on 82 after 12 on his throw in a deciding leg. West needed to grind it out a bit but did so, I've got this at about 58/42 Cullen, the bookies are offering 6/4 on West, it's not quite enough for me.

Wright/Tabern - Tabern's run is probably going to end here. He's been decent value for small punts in the last two rounds, but it looks like it runs out here - with the model giving him 21% and only getting 9/2, there simply isn't the edge to make things worth while.

Cross/Humphries - Luke was lights out first on against Gerwyn Price, but this is a step up against the world champion, who just did his job holding before powering away in the last three legs against Johnny Clayton. I've got it around 80/20, so do the bookmakers, let's move on.

Gurney/White - Daryl had no trouble as expected against Ryan Meikle, a bad seventh leg excepted, and comes up against Ian White, who didn't really show any signs of breaking Bunting until he was offered good chances later in the game which he took, the model gives Gurney as a 55/45 favourite yet we're being offered better than that on Ian, so let's have a nibble, 0.25u White 13/8

Brown/Webster - Two non seeds clash in the last sixteen, Brown needing to come from 3-0 down against Whitlock while Webster had to get back from 5-3 down against Chisnall, both absolutely blitzing their last three legs - if you want to see clutch darts check out these games. The model is giving Brown as the favourite, so let's go with that at the odds given - 0.25u Brown 6/5

van Gerwen/Norris - lol norris

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