Wednesday 1 January 2020

Worlds final preview

Quickly before I start, things go from bad to worse for the BDO in light of the hottest name in darts withdrawing from their event - that's an enormous blow, especially considering that the post on their website indicating that Prium is in for Sherrock has a huge "get your tickets now or watch on these obscure TV channels!" banner at the top of the page with, er, Sherrock, front and centre, and their Twitter feed having a most recent tweet from five days ago saying that, er, Sherrock will feature in their event. Jesus christ. You can't blame social media for everything, and then go into complete radio silence on social media when the shit hits the fan, leaving as a most recent post something that could easily be construed as false advertising.

So, there's another darts tournament going on right now, and it's a replay of the final from six years ago, sadly this year I don't have one of the finalists at 100/1 each way, but it is what it is:

So, yeah, 0.25u Wright 5/2. We've been laying van Gerwen all year on account that the market is generally overvaluing him, and that the distance in quality between van Gerwen and the field is greatly reduced from what it was 12-18 months ago. The simple fact of the matter is that Wright will probably not have a better chance ever to defeat van Gerwen in a major final than he does right now (at the outset at least, he probably had slightly better chances with six darts at 32 for the Premier League title than he does to win the worlds) - he has come through much greater tests than van Gerwen has in this event, and he is scoring better - the legs he's won in this event, he's won faster than van Gerwen has:

van Gerwen's won a higher percentage of legs, sure, but Wright is scoring more in legs when he's winning, he's getting more power legs of twelve darts or better, he's staying in closer order when he's losing legs, everything points to him having a much better chance of taking this one than the market is currently suggesting. Sure, Michael's not had a brilliant tournament, but while he's certainly capable of suddenly upping several gears and blowing Wright away, that's factored into all the calculations. We'll go with Snakebite to take his second major title.

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