Will post similar tomorrow for the top half once tonight's results are in, but that may be the last of anything in depth, I fly out to Germany for a booze/football weekend early on Friday morning so I very much doubt I can do the quarter finals justice (but may be able to get bets up).
Glen Durrant v Dave Chisnall
Legs won: Durrant 14 (3 twelve darters, 9 fifteen darters, 1 eighteen darter, 1 nineteen darter or worse), Chisnall 11 (3/3/4/1)
Legs lost: Durrant 10 (97.15 average), Chisnall 12 (85.38)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg (data from 2017 Lakeside onwards) - Chisnall 63.48%, Durrant 19.71%
Those chances of winning seem a bit deceptive - they come primarily from Lakeside where Durrant, as commented on this blog previously, wasn't hitting twelve dart legs with any sort of regularity, which is a big part of Chisnall's game. Just looking at the numbers in this event, and Durrant looks a lot, lot better - being extremely tidy, scoring heavily when he's not been able to win legs, whereas Chisnall has got away with getting some legs slowly, and not got away with quite a few others. Durrant is installed as the favourite, and that might be justified given Chisnall already lost two games here, but it wouldn't surprise me if Chisnall won - it just needs him to be consistent and hit some doubles, two things that have always been a huge problem for him.
Stephen Bunting v Peter Wright
Legs won: Bunting 15 (1/5/8/1), Wright 12 (1/7/4/0)
Legs lost: Bunting 10 (98.43), Wright 9 (101.40)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg: Wright 62.70%, Bunting 20.06%
Two players who could easily not have qualified, which seems odd given that Bunting swept his group and nobody else won more than one game - Bunting survived match darts against de Zwaan, and in a decider against Mitchell, had Scott throw probably his worst leg of the entire tournament to only leave 86 on throw after eighteen darts. Wright coasted against Cadby but was outplayed against Durrant and survived a match dart against Norris in a win or go home scenario. The bookies have Wright as a 3-1 favourite, if you look at the chances of winning then Wright's about three times more likely to do so based on the numbers we have, Bunting's numbers are a lot closer in this event than overall, but Stephen simply doesn't finish enough legs in fifteen darts to be able to hold on for long enough against someone of Wright's quality.
Mensur Suljovic v Berry van Peer
Legs won: Suljovic 15 (2/10/2/1), van Peer 11 (0/4/3/4)
Legs lost: Suljovic 10 (93.00) van Peer 13 (74.20)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg: Suljovic 96.28%, van Peer 1.08%
Let's take that last figure first - van Peer didn't qualify for any of the European Tour events, so the only sample we have is from this event, where it's fair to say he's not had the best of it. Suljovic swept his group but hasn't had things entirely his own way, being forced to a deciding leg twice, but realistically the van Peer story ends here, Suljovic is so incredibly consistent now that even if he threw in two or three duff legs and gifted Berry a chance, Suljovic will be able to grind it back pretty quickly, while he's got through, he's not killed quickly and will give Mensur more than enough chances. 2u Suljovic 1/16
Gary Anderson v Michael Smith
Legs won: Anderson 15 (4/7/3/1), Smith 14 (2/7/4/1)
Legs lost: Anderson 6 (97.10), Smith 12 (102.65)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg: Anderson 62.64%, Smith 20.33%
Similar betting scenario to the Bunting/Wright game where Anderson's around a 3-1 favourite and the chances of winning my model generates are somewhat similar. Anderson, however, has a limited sample size, consisting of more or less just the Matchplay and this, but in this he's looked excellent. Smith, however, has been no slouch himself, only missing out on sweeping the group by tiny margins, and it's excellent news that he appears to be returning to form. There might be very small Smith value, but given how quickly his form can disappear and that he is facing what looks to be a peaking Anderson, I'm not going to rush out to bet on it.
Tuesday, 14 November 2017
Grand Slam Day 4
Bottom half's now done, huge congrats to Berry van Peer, unbelievable what the lad's done. Nothing overly shocking elsewhere, last 16 preview will follow, but tonight's games first:
Mark Webster and Noppert are priced as a flip, don't want to get involved in this one but if I did it'd be on the Welshman, if he gets a couple of legs Noppert would be eliminated and might start mailing it in.
The other Webster's greater than 2/1 vs Gurney, who he of course beat to win his Pro Tour title this year, seems like a decent shot given he will likely need to win to advance, the only problem would come is if Mark won big and forced him to win big himself, so will avoid this one as well.
van Gerwen's basically never losing against Murnan, so straight on to Cross/Montgomery. Ross is longer than 4/1 in a race to five that's a straight elimination match. He's won six legs, five of those in fifteen darts of less, three of those being twelve darters or better. He's only averaged 86 in his losing legs though, which is a big gap, although if he nailed some of his doubles against van Gerwen like he did against Murnan then it might be a lot higher. He'll have to continue to play this standard, keep tight on the doubles as he did in game two, and probably hope that Cross has a slip or two, but I'm comfortable enough recommending a tiny underdog punt - 0.1u Montgomery 22/5.
Green should cruise against Machin, he's simply putting enough points on the board to get home - 0.5u Green 8/15. Wade needs to win against Taylor and I can't see how that happens ever, 0.5u Taylor 1/3.
Gerwyn Price is a big favourite against Jamie Hughes, I'm not sure that I love the odds enough despite Hughes struggling and already being out, the pressure will probably be off and in a home venue the crowd should become a factor. That just leaves Barney against Lennon, a similarly priced game and one Lennon probably has to win. He's looked OK and it could happen but it's the biggest game of his career and the pressure may tell, so I'll avoid this game as well.
Mark Webster and Noppert are priced as a flip, don't want to get involved in this one but if I did it'd be on the Welshman, if he gets a couple of legs Noppert would be eliminated and might start mailing it in.
The other Webster's greater than 2/1 vs Gurney, who he of course beat to win his Pro Tour title this year, seems like a decent shot given he will likely need to win to advance, the only problem would come is if Mark won big and forced him to win big himself, so will avoid this one as well.
van Gerwen's basically never losing against Murnan, so straight on to Cross/Montgomery. Ross is longer than 4/1 in a race to five that's a straight elimination match. He's won six legs, five of those in fifteen darts of less, three of those being twelve darters or better. He's only averaged 86 in his losing legs though, which is a big gap, although if he nailed some of his doubles against van Gerwen like he did against Murnan then it might be a lot higher. He'll have to continue to play this standard, keep tight on the doubles as he did in game two, and probably hope that Cross has a slip or two, but I'm comfortable enough recommending a tiny underdog punt - 0.1u Montgomery 22/5.
Green should cruise against Machin, he's simply putting enough points on the board to get home - 0.5u Green 8/15. Wade needs to win against Taylor and I can't see how that happens ever, 0.5u Taylor 1/3.
Gerwyn Price is a big favourite against Jamie Hughes, I'm not sure that I love the odds enough despite Hughes struggling and already being out, the pressure will probably be off and in a home venue the crowd should become a factor. That just leaves Barney against Lennon, a similarly priced game and one Lennon probably has to win. He's looked OK and it could happen but it's the biggest game of his career and the pressure may tell, so I'll avoid this game as well.
Sunday, 12 November 2017
Grand Slam Day 3
The group stage is now already two thirds done, and we drop to a more sedate pace now with groups E-H finishing tomorrow. Two of these are half finished already, with Durrant and Anderson advancing and Cadby and Whitlock being eliminated respectively - these face off respectively and I'm not touching them as they're close to dead rubbers, although the Durrant price being offered up by BetVictor at 8/13 is mighty tempting. These two groups have straight elimination games between Wright and Norris, and Menzies and van Peer. Berry's dartitis issues have been talked about plenty and I won't go into them here, Menzies has been playing solidly enough to get it, but at 1/3 there's just about enough doubt to ignore the game. Norris comes in as a very big underdog to Wright, even longer than van Peer is against Menzies, but Peter's playing excellent stuff while Norris has been pretty ordinary throughout, so I think the line here also looks fair.
This leaves the Suljovic and Bunting groups - Mensur's up against James Wilson, needing just the four legs to be absolutely safe on leg difference, and he's nearly as big a favourite again. Suljovic has slotted in 7/10 won legs in under fifteen darts, including two four visit kills, while Wilson's at 6/8, also with two four visit kills, so the averages might be misleading a bit. Wilson's on the same leg difference as Smith who has the easier out against McGeeney, and I think it might be worth a small punt - 0.25u Wilson 5/2, only needing 30% for it to be profitable I'm fancying it. On that Smith/McGeeney game, Mark has been very disappointing and I expected more, only winning the four legs and two of them were 19+ dart gifts, Smith's around the same price as Mensur but I think the differential here is much greater, his kill speed against Wilson was not as good as against Mensur, but in the legs he lost against Wilson he was averaging over 112 so the game was still clicking well throughout - 0.5u Smith 4/11.
In the Bunting group, Stephen plays Scott Mitchell knowing three legs will see him through, he's looked pretty decent if not killing quite as quickly as I'd want him to, but it's a fair bit quicker than Mitchell was, who did alright against Chisnall but just got outplayed, while against de Zwaan he was flat out ordinary with just one of his five won legs in fifteen darts or less. Bunting's a small favourite and I like the chances of him locking the group up - 0.25u Bunting 8/11. The final game is Dave Chisnall against Jeffrey de Zwaan, Chisnall's a big favourite and too big to contemplate betting, de Zwaan has enough that he can get home enough to make it not a Chisnall bet, but I think that Dave should come through, Jeffrey's got to feel a bit disappointed, missing match darts in game one and missing 13 at double in game two, it'd be a statement win if he could get there but he must win at least 5-3 and hope that Bunting wins, which isn't too ridiculous but a bit of an outside shot.
Of the groups that finish on Tuesday, Cross will play Montgomery in a straight fight to join van Gerwen in the last sixteen, Cross having missed match darts tonight (sigh) while Montgomery hit a third twelve darter of the tournament tonight to power home against Murnan. This may be closer than the line looks but it's hard to back against Cross at this stage, and van Gerwen/Murnan isn't worth betting on. The other groups have all seen real disappointing performances from the BDO lads with only Noppert still technically alive but needing at least a 5-1 win and a big win from Gurney as well. Gurney I think should have enough to handle Darren Webster which would make the equation simple for Mark Webster, beat Noppert and you're through. In the Barney group, Lennon's whitewash of Hughes has given him a chance if he can upset Barney, while Price can lock up a spot with a 5-1 win over Hughes regardless of results elsewhere. In the Taylor group, you'd think he should have enough to handle James Wade, who's looked pedestrian in both games, which leaves Robbie Green with close to a free pass, having a three leg advantage over Wade already, meaning that the only Taylor win that'd not advance him is a 5-4 Taylor win, and even then he'd need to lose every leg against Machin.
This leaves the Suljovic and Bunting groups - Mensur's up against James Wilson, needing just the four legs to be absolutely safe on leg difference, and he's nearly as big a favourite again. Suljovic has slotted in 7/10 won legs in under fifteen darts, including two four visit kills, while Wilson's at 6/8, also with two four visit kills, so the averages might be misleading a bit. Wilson's on the same leg difference as Smith who has the easier out against McGeeney, and I think it might be worth a small punt - 0.25u Wilson 5/2, only needing 30% for it to be profitable I'm fancying it. On that Smith/McGeeney game, Mark has been very disappointing and I expected more, only winning the four legs and two of them were 19+ dart gifts, Smith's around the same price as Mensur but I think the differential here is much greater, his kill speed against Wilson was not as good as against Mensur, but in the legs he lost against Wilson he was averaging over 112 so the game was still clicking well throughout - 0.5u Smith 4/11.
In the Bunting group, Stephen plays Scott Mitchell knowing three legs will see him through, he's looked pretty decent if not killing quite as quickly as I'd want him to, but it's a fair bit quicker than Mitchell was, who did alright against Chisnall but just got outplayed, while against de Zwaan he was flat out ordinary with just one of his five won legs in fifteen darts or less. Bunting's a small favourite and I like the chances of him locking the group up - 0.25u Bunting 8/11. The final game is Dave Chisnall against Jeffrey de Zwaan, Chisnall's a big favourite and too big to contemplate betting, de Zwaan has enough that he can get home enough to make it not a Chisnall bet, but I think that Dave should come through, Jeffrey's got to feel a bit disappointed, missing match darts in game one and missing 13 at double in game two, it'd be a statement win if he could get there but he must win at least 5-3 and hope that Bunting wins, which isn't too ridiculous but a bit of an outside shot.
Of the groups that finish on Tuesday, Cross will play Montgomery in a straight fight to join van Gerwen in the last sixteen, Cross having missed match darts tonight (sigh) while Montgomery hit a third twelve darter of the tournament tonight to power home against Murnan. This may be closer than the line looks but it's hard to back against Cross at this stage, and van Gerwen/Murnan isn't worth betting on. The other groups have all seen real disappointing performances from the BDO lads with only Noppert still technically alive but needing at least a 5-1 win and a big win from Gurney as well. Gurney I think should have enough to handle Darren Webster which would make the equation simple for Mark Webster, beat Noppert and you're through. In the Barney group, Lennon's whitewash of Hughes has given him a chance if he can upset Barney, while Price can lock up a spot with a 5-1 win over Hughes regardless of results elsewhere. In the Taylor group, you'd think he should have enough to handle James Wade, who's looked pedestrian in both games, which leaves Robbie Green with close to a free pass, having a three leg advantage over Wade already, meaning that the only Taylor win that'd not advance him is a 5-4 Taylor win, and even then he'd need to lose every leg against Machin.
Grand Slam Day 2
Day 1's in the books, won't get too greedy and complain about de Zwaan's missed match darts, he got himself into a position which is all you want really, Durrant saved the day with what bad stats will call an impressive performance (pending looking at good stats myself), not a huge number of surprises but van Peer over Whitlock came out of nowhere, Menzies keeping it fairly close against Anderson raised somewhat of an eyebrow, while Robbie Green and Mark Webster's wins are a bit of a surprise.
Oddschecker's still unable to split games by day so it looks horrible, will try my best to interpret what they're saying:
0.25u de Zwaan 6/4 v Mitchell, Scott's two won legs were five visit legs and he was in position to get another couple if Chisnall hadn't killed first waiting on 24 and 64 after twelve darts, but the other three legs were nothing special, leaving 101 after 12 , 46 after 15 and 138 after 15 (!), so de Zwaan, who's in form, should have the game to nick this 40% of the time.
0.25u Menzies 2/1 v Whitlock, against Anderson he was putting himself into positions to finish in fifteen darts quite well, although he only actually got one of his legs in five visits - leg three he had a dart for it, leg four he was on double after 12, leg six he was on a finish after 9, while Whitlock really wasn't scoring at all against van Peer - only the twelve darter in leg 6 looked impressive. Seems a decent outside punt.
0.25u Montgomery 6/5 v Murnan, Joe was basically just scoring the entirety of the match, only getting two darts at double in the whole game, at the end of a 137 out and one with his eighteenth dart of the second leg, and he still only averaged high 80's. That's not good, and Montgomery showed enough scoring that he should be able to generate more chances at double in this one.
0.25u Cross 7/2 v van Gerwen, Rob shouldn't be that much of a dog to anyone in the world in a race to five legs. when he's played van Gerwen he's generally been able to keep it fairly close early on so it wouldn't take too much for him to push over the line, and we don't need it to happen that often for it to be a profitable bet.
Oddschecker's still unable to split games by day so it looks horrible, will try my best to interpret what they're saying:
0.25u de Zwaan 6/4 v Mitchell, Scott's two won legs were five visit legs and he was in position to get another couple if Chisnall hadn't killed first waiting on 24 and 64 after twelve darts, but the other three legs were nothing special, leaving 101 after 12 , 46 after 15 and 138 after 15 (!), so de Zwaan, who's in form, should have the game to nick this 40% of the time.
0.25u Menzies 2/1 v Whitlock, against Anderson he was putting himself into positions to finish in fifteen darts quite well, although he only actually got one of his legs in five visits - leg three he had a dart for it, leg four he was on double after 12, leg six he was on a finish after 9, while Whitlock really wasn't scoring at all against van Peer - only the twelve darter in leg 6 looked impressive. Seems a decent outside punt.
0.25u Montgomery 6/5 v Murnan, Joe was basically just scoring the entirety of the match, only getting two darts at double in the whole game, at the end of a 137 out and one with his eighteenth dart of the second leg, and he still only averaged high 80's. That's not good, and Montgomery showed enough scoring that he should be able to generate more chances at double in this one.
0.25u Cross 7/2 v van Gerwen, Rob shouldn't be that much of a dog to anyone in the world in a race to five legs. when he's played van Gerwen he's generally been able to keep it fairly close early on so it wouldn't take too much for him to push over the line, and we don't need it to happen that often for it to be a profitable bet.
Friday, 10 November 2017
Ten things to watch for in the Grand Slam plus bets
The penultimate PDC ranking event before the worlds is just hours away, here's a few things I'm interested in looking at:
1) Can Michael van Gerwen claim a big TV title?
Sure he won the European Championship, but it was a fairly weak field with a bunch of big names missing. He still got there and you can only beat the players you face, and he looked great in doing so as well as in the unranked World Series finals, but this is a different story - a rapid fire group stage including one opponent in Rob Cross that is easily the worst draw he could face, the slightest slip against either of the outsiders and he could be in trouble. Get through that and he has longer games to play with, but this is going to be tough throughout - the only top 20 FRH players missing are van de Pas, Huybrechts, White, Klaasen, Cullen and Lewis, chuck in the best of the BDO as well and it's not straight forward in the slightest.
2) How's Phil doing?
He's not thrown a ranked dart since winning the Matchplay, and since then he's lost in exhibitions to Cadby, Barney, Anderson and Wright. Not bad players in the slightest, but people will surely turn it on a bit more on the ranked stage, and if Phil at this stage is losing in tournaments he's prioritising, then who knows what's going on?
3) Will Cadby make a statement?
I'm not sure on whether Corey can join the PDPA tomorrow and play their last chance qualifier, but I would guess not, so it leaves this as the last time we'll see him before Q-School (if that's the route he chooses to take). He's in a group jammed through of great players who he'll see (rightly) as his peers, he just needs to do it, then try to get out of the group and go from there in longer matches.
4) How will the BDO players do?
I've touched on this at fair length in the previous post, I think anyone that isn't Montgomery or Menzies certainly has at least a shot at making it out of the group stage. They'll all need to play well, and in some cases play a lot better than they have been doing recently, but the talent and the situation is there if they can put it together. As I frequently say, this is a darts blog, not a PDC blog, and seeing the BDO players perform against opponents I know and have good samples on will always be useful for analysis, and fun to see full stop.
5) How will the "unknowns" do?
There's a few players that have made it, either by qualifying or outright, that we've not seen much of, at least on the big stage - Joe Murnan's been around for a couple of seasons and while he can't expect to advance, would at least like to beat Montgomery and get cash in the bank to help retain Tour Card status in 2019 after a bad year. Lennon's in a group that doesn't have an unwinnable game, and this will surely help him in terms of stage experience before the worlds. de Zwaan's a bit like Murnan in that he's played on the world stage before, but has dropped in form a bit before really peaking this autumn, at just 21 it's still incredibly early in his career and he will be a threat to everyone in his group. van Peer got to the world youth final last time out, and will surely just be looking to get over Menzies and gain stage experience, his 2017 is a lot worse than his 2016 so whatever he can get will be useful.
6) How much LOL can we have with potential rematches?
In their infinite wisdom, the PDC appear to have set things up so that group opponents who advance will rematch in the quarter final stage. This is beyond ridiculous and would be very, very easy to avoid, but they're not known for being the smartest in tournament formats.
7) Webstermania!
Always fun when you've got two players with the same surname face off against each other in a group stage.
8) Netherlandsmania!
As the #1 and #8 seeds, and with point six in mind, if van Gerwen and van Barneveld both make it through and don't finish in the same spot in their group, they'll meet in the last 16, or, if they're both winners or runners up, would meet in the quarters assuming Rob Cross doesn't throw a spanner in the works (or, knowing Cross, the whole toolkit).
9) Can Wade get going?
Interesting group he has with Taylor, Machin and Green, there's little reason why he couldn't make it out of the group and face someone in the Gurney/Websters/Noppert group, and who knows from there?
10) Will the commentators make stupid comments about BDO players needing to raise averages to compete with the PDC elite?
Of course.
Oddschecker is a trainwreck to try to work out who's actually playing tomorrow, so I'll not even try to comment on all games, just place bets:
0.25u de Zwaan 13/8 vs Bunting- he's in form, and while Bunting is improving, it's not enough
0.25u McGeeney 10/3 vs Suljovic - he's the BDO number 1, that is surely enough against anyone that isn't MvG in a race to five at that price
0.25u Durrant 23/10 vs Wright - he's the BDO world champion, that is surely enough against anyone that isn't MvG in a race to five at that price
1) Can Michael van Gerwen claim a big TV title?
Sure he won the European Championship, but it was a fairly weak field with a bunch of big names missing. He still got there and you can only beat the players you face, and he looked great in doing so as well as in the unranked World Series finals, but this is a different story - a rapid fire group stage including one opponent in Rob Cross that is easily the worst draw he could face, the slightest slip against either of the outsiders and he could be in trouble. Get through that and he has longer games to play with, but this is going to be tough throughout - the only top 20 FRH players missing are van de Pas, Huybrechts, White, Klaasen, Cullen and Lewis, chuck in the best of the BDO as well and it's not straight forward in the slightest.
2) How's Phil doing?
He's not thrown a ranked dart since winning the Matchplay, and since then he's lost in exhibitions to Cadby, Barney, Anderson and Wright. Not bad players in the slightest, but people will surely turn it on a bit more on the ranked stage, and if Phil at this stage is losing in tournaments he's prioritising, then who knows what's going on?
3) Will Cadby make a statement?
I'm not sure on whether Corey can join the PDPA tomorrow and play their last chance qualifier, but I would guess not, so it leaves this as the last time we'll see him before Q-School (if that's the route he chooses to take). He's in a group jammed through of great players who he'll see (rightly) as his peers, he just needs to do it, then try to get out of the group and go from there in longer matches.
4) How will the BDO players do?
I've touched on this at fair length in the previous post, I think anyone that isn't Montgomery or Menzies certainly has at least a shot at making it out of the group stage. They'll all need to play well, and in some cases play a lot better than they have been doing recently, but the talent and the situation is there if they can put it together. As I frequently say, this is a darts blog, not a PDC blog, and seeing the BDO players perform against opponents I know and have good samples on will always be useful for analysis, and fun to see full stop.
5) How will the "unknowns" do?
There's a few players that have made it, either by qualifying or outright, that we've not seen much of, at least on the big stage - Joe Murnan's been around for a couple of seasons and while he can't expect to advance, would at least like to beat Montgomery and get cash in the bank to help retain Tour Card status in 2019 after a bad year. Lennon's in a group that doesn't have an unwinnable game, and this will surely help him in terms of stage experience before the worlds. de Zwaan's a bit like Murnan in that he's played on the world stage before, but has dropped in form a bit before really peaking this autumn, at just 21 it's still incredibly early in his career and he will be a threat to everyone in his group. van Peer got to the world youth final last time out, and will surely just be looking to get over Menzies and gain stage experience, his 2017 is a lot worse than his 2016 so whatever he can get will be useful.
6) How much LOL can we have with potential rematches?
In their infinite wisdom, the PDC appear to have set things up so that group opponents who advance will rematch in the quarter final stage. This is beyond ridiculous and would be very, very easy to avoid, but they're not known for being the smartest in tournament formats.
7) Webstermania!
Always fun when you've got two players with the same surname face off against each other in a group stage.
8) Netherlandsmania!
As the #1 and #8 seeds, and with point six in mind, if van Gerwen and van Barneveld both make it through and don't finish in the same spot in their group, they'll meet in the last 16, or, if they're both winners or runners up, would meet in the quarters assuming Rob Cross doesn't throw a spanner in the works (or, knowing Cross, the whole toolkit).
9) Can Wade get going?
Interesting group he has with Taylor, Machin and Green, there's little reason why he couldn't make it out of the group and face someone in the Gurney/Websters/Noppert group, and who knows from there?
10) Will the commentators make stupid comments about BDO players needing to raise averages to compete with the PDC elite?
Of course.
Oddschecker is a trainwreck to try to work out who's actually playing tomorrow, so I'll not even try to comment on all games, just place bets:
0.25u de Zwaan 13/8 vs Bunting- he's in form, and while Bunting is improving, it's not enough
0.25u McGeeney 10/3 vs Suljovic - he's the BDO number 1, that is surely enough against anyone that isn't MvG in a race to five at that price
0.25u Durrant 23/10 vs Wright - he's the BDO world champion, that is surely enough against anyone that isn't MvG in a race to five at that price
Tuesday, 7 November 2017
Grand Slam draw and random comments
The PDC had the final qualifier for the Grand Slam yesterday, and with that, barring weird withdrawals, the last chance for anyone to get into a position to get any more ranking cash prior to the worlds. Jenkins didn't even enter it, so he's done, Dolan managed to lose to Caven so he's out barring a great run at Minehead, anyone else was probably too far back but Robbie Green has two shots to perform a miracle at least. In other random news, Josh Payne has managed to keep his worlds hopes alive by reaching the world youth final, where he'll face Dimitri van den Bergh, I believe that if Dimitri wins there's no spot for Josh and the slot will just go to the PDPA qualifier, so it's win or bust really, shame for Cadby but oh well. The Chinese qualifier has produce a random kid who got whitewashed by Wade in the Shanghai World Series event, and it looks like Marko Kantele got the second SDC slot. Also, it seems that the site that Burton wrote for is on hiatus, which is a shame. Also, as mentioned in a previous post, Rob Cross is now up in the FRH top 10.
So, the draw, what do we have?
Group A: van Gerwen/Cross/Murnan/Montgomery
Seems to be two clear favourites here, van Gerwen and Cross everyone knows about, and should have more than enough to advance from this field. Murnan's a bit of a surprise qualifier, having beaten Benito in a deciding leg first round up and then getting nobody decent following, needing a decider against Ryan Palmer in the last round and only making a single last sixteen all season, so I can't see how he can get close. Montgomery's been around since forever but is on debut here, the limited stats I have on him aren't great and his performances in BDO majors are pretty mediocre, so his game against Murnan could be an early contender for worst of the tournament.
Group B: van Barneveld/Price/Lennon/Hughes
Think there's realistic chances for Hughes here, who's a back to back BDO semi finalist and looked good this time last year, in as close to a home field as he'll get. Barney's maybe a touch rusty and Price hasn't really cracked through into the threat to anyone level, so over a short race Hughes may have some equity. Lennon's going to make his PDC worlds debut this year after a solid season, coming through van den Bergh, Beaton and Cullen in the qualifier, his numbers from the European Tour seem solid so this group could be wide open.
Group C: Taylor/Wade/Green/Machin
Taylor's going to still be solid, and I can't see any of this lineup troubling him even over a short distance, so it's probably a race for second. Wade looked OK in spots last weekend so should probably be the favourite, but Green had to come through a tough qualifier facing North, Temple, Klaasen and van der Voort, so may be returning to some of the form he showed around this time last year. Machin's here on account of winning the World Trophy, where he showed some ability to finish quickly and consistently, so if he plays like he did then he could have a shot, but such is the comedy of the BDO's qualifying system he's never even played Lakeside, so this could be a huge shock in terms of big stage play.
Group D: Gurney/Webster/Webster/Noppert
Interesting group, let's deal with the seed first - Gurney's not a lock to advance out of the group by any means but should do so, I feel only Darren has the explosiveness to threaten him. Noppert has had a really disappointing year, not winning a thing or even making a final, so while he clearly has the game he's not shown it since Lakeside. Mark Webster is in on account of making the World Cup final, which doesn't mean a great deal, while Darren needed to qualify, and did so very comfortably, dropping three legs to Caven but whitewashing both his other opponents. I think the Demolition Man also gets through, but all four could advance if they find form.
Group E: Wright/Norris/Cadby/Durrant
Jesus Christ this group is stacked. I'll look at who I think is the weakest player here in Norris, who has an FRH ranking of 11 so has clearly been doing enough, mostly on TV, so may do alright on the stage. Cadby has had multiple chances to make the worlds but couldn't take any of them, so something might not be right, but did make a World Series final so when the cameras are on he can show up. Durrant needs no introduction, the current Lakeside champion has had a solid season when he's played and showed this time last year that he can hang with the elite players, which leaves Peter Wright, who's won more than ten titles this year. It wouldn't surprise me to see any combination of these players qualify, this is a brutal group.
Group F: Chisnall/Bunting/de Zwaan/Mitchell
Chizzy should have enough to advance, although in a short race it doesn't take too many misses at double to break things badly. Bunting had a fairly comfortable qualification with wins over Richardson, Shepherd and Kamphuis, and has shown occasional glimpses that he's getting back to form, so should probably be the favourite to take the second spot. de Zwaan is on fire right now, reaching Minehead with a semi final Pro Tour run, needing Cadby to knock him out of the world youth at the quarter final stage, having drawn the number 1 seed in the first round and won, and made it here by beating Clayton, White and Thornton, a very respectable combination. Mitchell's a former Lakeside winner who's had a good season, and given this group isn't the toughest, he could upset the apple cart if he plays his A game.
Group G: Suljovic/Smith/Wilson/McGeeney
I'm thinking the first two here are favourites to advance, but in a short format the others aren't out of the equation. Mensur's in too good form to not grab one of the spots, while Smith's been very up and down and can't afford to be down against Wilson, who seems to do his best work in shorter formats, qualifying with a last round victory over a resurgent Keegan Brown, on TV he's kept a lot of games close before falling away so in a race to five he could fall over the line just enough to nick second. McGeeney's a player a lot of casuals may not know about with just two Lakeside appearances where he went out in the second round two times, but he's been very good for a while now, winning the Dutch Open, big events in Germany, England and Switzerland as well as making the World Masters final, to reach the top of the BDO rankings.
Group H: Anderson/Whitlock/van Peer/Menzies
This group doesn't seem too interesting really, Anderson and Whitlock should have far too much for both the world youth finalist from 2016 and the last of the BDO qualifiers on rankings, winning some events in Scotland to push him up the ranks. Whitlock's form is enough that I can't see him struggling against anyone but Anderson, which should be a straight face off for the group win. van Peer's been gaining a lot of floor experience but hasn't matched anything like what he was doing in 2016, so could have issues getting a point in this one.
So, the draw, what do we have?
Group A: van Gerwen/Cross/Murnan/Montgomery
Seems to be two clear favourites here, van Gerwen and Cross everyone knows about, and should have more than enough to advance from this field. Murnan's a bit of a surprise qualifier, having beaten Benito in a deciding leg first round up and then getting nobody decent following, needing a decider against Ryan Palmer in the last round and only making a single last sixteen all season, so I can't see how he can get close. Montgomery's been around since forever but is on debut here, the limited stats I have on him aren't great and his performances in BDO majors are pretty mediocre, so his game against Murnan could be an early contender for worst of the tournament.
Group B: van Barneveld/Price/Lennon/Hughes
Think there's realistic chances for Hughes here, who's a back to back BDO semi finalist and looked good this time last year, in as close to a home field as he'll get. Barney's maybe a touch rusty and Price hasn't really cracked through into the threat to anyone level, so over a short race Hughes may have some equity. Lennon's going to make his PDC worlds debut this year after a solid season, coming through van den Bergh, Beaton and Cullen in the qualifier, his numbers from the European Tour seem solid so this group could be wide open.
Group C: Taylor/Wade/Green/Machin
Taylor's going to still be solid, and I can't see any of this lineup troubling him even over a short distance, so it's probably a race for second. Wade looked OK in spots last weekend so should probably be the favourite, but Green had to come through a tough qualifier facing North, Temple, Klaasen and van der Voort, so may be returning to some of the form he showed around this time last year. Machin's here on account of winning the World Trophy, where he showed some ability to finish quickly and consistently, so if he plays like he did then he could have a shot, but such is the comedy of the BDO's qualifying system he's never even played Lakeside, so this could be a huge shock in terms of big stage play.
Group D: Gurney/Webster/Webster/Noppert
Interesting group, let's deal with the seed first - Gurney's not a lock to advance out of the group by any means but should do so, I feel only Darren has the explosiveness to threaten him. Noppert has had a really disappointing year, not winning a thing or even making a final, so while he clearly has the game he's not shown it since Lakeside. Mark Webster is in on account of making the World Cup final, which doesn't mean a great deal, while Darren needed to qualify, and did so very comfortably, dropping three legs to Caven but whitewashing both his other opponents. I think the Demolition Man also gets through, but all four could advance if they find form.
Group E: Wright/Norris/Cadby/Durrant
Jesus Christ this group is stacked. I'll look at who I think is the weakest player here in Norris, who has an FRH ranking of 11 so has clearly been doing enough, mostly on TV, so may do alright on the stage. Cadby has had multiple chances to make the worlds but couldn't take any of them, so something might not be right, but did make a World Series final so when the cameras are on he can show up. Durrant needs no introduction, the current Lakeside champion has had a solid season when he's played and showed this time last year that he can hang with the elite players, which leaves Peter Wright, who's won more than ten titles this year. It wouldn't surprise me to see any combination of these players qualify, this is a brutal group.
Group F: Chisnall/Bunting/de Zwaan/Mitchell
Chizzy should have enough to advance, although in a short race it doesn't take too many misses at double to break things badly. Bunting had a fairly comfortable qualification with wins over Richardson, Shepherd and Kamphuis, and has shown occasional glimpses that he's getting back to form, so should probably be the favourite to take the second spot. de Zwaan is on fire right now, reaching Minehead with a semi final Pro Tour run, needing Cadby to knock him out of the world youth at the quarter final stage, having drawn the number 1 seed in the first round and won, and made it here by beating Clayton, White and Thornton, a very respectable combination. Mitchell's a former Lakeside winner who's had a good season, and given this group isn't the toughest, he could upset the apple cart if he plays his A game.
Group G: Suljovic/Smith/Wilson/McGeeney
I'm thinking the first two here are favourites to advance, but in a short format the others aren't out of the equation. Mensur's in too good form to not grab one of the spots, while Smith's been very up and down and can't afford to be down against Wilson, who seems to do his best work in shorter formats, qualifying with a last round victory over a resurgent Keegan Brown, on TV he's kept a lot of games close before falling away so in a race to five he could fall over the line just enough to nick second. McGeeney's a player a lot of casuals may not know about with just two Lakeside appearances where he went out in the second round two times, but he's been very good for a while now, winning the Dutch Open, big events in Germany, England and Switzerland as well as making the World Masters final, to reach the top of the BDO rankings.
Group H: Anderson/Whitlock/van Peer/Menzies
This group doesn't seem too interesting really, Anderson and Whitlock should have far too much for both the world youth finalist from 2016 and the last of the BDO qualifiers on rankings, winning some events in Scotland to push him up the ranks. Whitlock's form is enough that I can't see him struggling against anyone but Anderson, which should be a straight face off for the group win. van Peer's been gaining a lot of floor experience but hasn't matched anything like what he was doing in 2016, so could have issues getting a point in this one.
Tuesday, 31 October 2017
Random bunch of stats
Have added a couple of links to the links section, could probably use tidying up. I wanted to add someone else who'd posted a few links on Twitter but can't find him, although I think he's changed the title of his blog and it's on there under its current name (and I sure as hell am not searching my internet history for "darts"). Have also corrected the date for when the betting tracking is accurate to as I forgot.
The worlds seeds are looking pretty safe given Kist's injury, so a quick bunch of stats for the seeds on what they've done so far this season (i.e. after the worlds and in ranked stage matches):
Legs played:
Legs won:
Legs won to legs lost comparison:
Finishing speed (blue = four or less visits (hi Kyle!), red = five visits, yellowy-orange = six visits, green = seven or more visits, sorted by 15 or less dart legs:
Average points per turn:
The worlds seeds are looking pretty safe given Kist's injury, so a quick bunch of stats for the seeds on what they've done so far this season (i.e. after the worlds and in ranked stage matches):
Legs played:
Legs won:
Legs won to legs lost comparison:
Finishing speed (blue = four or less visits (hi Kyle!), red = five visits, yellowy-orange = six visits, green = seven or more visits, sorted by 15 or less dart legs:
Average points per turn:
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