Tuesday, 14 November 2017

Grand Slam Day 4

Bottom half's now done, huge congrats to Berry van Peer, unbelievable what the lad's done. Nothing overly shocking elsewhere, last 16 preview will follow, but tonight's games first:

Mark Webster and Noppert are priced as a flip, don't want to get involved in this one but if I did it'd be on the Welshman, if he gets a couple of legs Noppert would be eliminated and might start mailing it in.

The other Webster's greater than 2/1 vs Gurney, who he of course beat to win his Pro Tour title this year, seems like a decent shot given he will likely need to win to advance, the only problem would come is if Mark won big and forced him to win big himself, so will avoid this one as well.

van Gerwen's basically never losing against Murnan, so straight on to Cross/Montgomery. Ross is longer than 4/1 in a race to five that's a straight elimination match. He's won six legs, five of those in fifteen darts of less, three of those being twelve darters or better. He's only averaged 86 in his losing legs though, which is a big gap, although if he nailed some of his doubles against van Gerwen like he did against Murnan then it might be a lot higher. He'll have to continue to play this standard, keep tight on the doubles as he did in game two, and probably hope that Cross has a slip or two, but I'm comfortable enough recommending a tiny underdog punt - 0.1u Montgomery 22/5.

Green should cruise against Machin, he's simply putting enough points on the board to get home - 0.5u Green 8/15. Wade needs to win against Taylor and I can't see how that happens ever, 0.5u Taylor 1/3.

Gerwyn Price is a big favourite against Jamie Hughes, I'm not sure that I love the odds enough despite Hughes struggling and already being out, the pressure will probably be off and in a home venue the crowd should become a factor. That just leaves Barney against Lennon, a similarly priced game and one Lennon probably has to win. He's looked OK and it could happen but it's the biggest game of his career and the pressure may tell, so I'll avoid this game as well.

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