Tuesday 14 November 2017

Grand Slam Day 5 - Last 16 Bottom Half Preview

Will post similar tomorrow for the top half once tonight's results are in, but that may be the last of anything in depth, I fly out to Germany for a booze/football weekend early on Friday morning so I very much doubt I can do the quarter finals justice (but may be able to get bets up).

Glen Durrant v Dave Chisnall

Legs won: Durrant 14 (3 twelve darters, 9 fifteen darters, 1 eighteen darter, 1 nineteen darter or worse), Chisnall 11 (3/3/4/1)
Legs lost: Durrant 10 (97.15 average), Chisnall 12 (85.38)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg (data from 2017 Lakeside onwards) - Chisnall 63.48%, Durrant 19.71%

Those chances of winning seem a bit deceptive - they come primarily from Lakeside where Durrant, as commented on this blog previously, wasn't hitting twelve dart legs with any sort of regularity, which is a big part of Chisnall's game. Just looking at the numbers in this event, and Durrant looks a lot, lot better - being extremely tidy, scoring heavily when he's not been able to win legs, whereas Chisnall has got away with getting some legs slowly, and not got away with quite a few others. Durrant is installed as the favourite, and that might be justified given Chisnall already lost two games here, but it wouldn't surprise me if Chisnall won - it just needs him to be consistent and hit some doubles, two things that have always been a huge problem for him.

Stephen Bunting v Peter Wright

Legs won: Bunting 15 (1/5/8/1), Wright 12 (1/7/4/0)
Legs lost: Bunting 10 (98.43), Wright 9 (101.40)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg: Wright 62.70%, Bunting 20.06%

Two players who could easily not have qualified, which seems odd given that Bunting swept his group and nobody else won more than one game - Bunting survived match darts against de Zwaan, and in a decider against Mitchell, had Scott throw probably his worst leg of the entire tournament to only leave 86 on throw after eighteen darts. Wright coasted against Cadby but was outplayed against Durrant and survived a match dart against Norris in a win or go home scenario. The bookies have Wright as a 3-1 favourite, if you look at the chances of winning then Wright's about three times more likely to do so based on the numbers we have, Bunting's numbers are a lot closer in this event than overall, but Stephen simply doesn't finish enough legs in fifteen darts to be able to hold on for long enough against someone of Wright's quality.

Mensur Suljovic v Berry van Peer

Legs won: Suljovic 15 (2/10/2/1), van Peer 11 (0/4/3/4)
Legs lost: Suljovic 10 (93.00) van Peer 13 (74.20)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg: Suljovic 96.28%, van Peer 1.08%

Let's take that last figure first - van Peer didn't qualify for any of the European Tour events, so the only sample we have is from this event, where it's fair to say he's not had the best of it. Suljovic swept his group but hasn't had things entirely his own way, being forced to a deciding leg twice, but realistically the van Peer story ends here, Suljovic is so incredibly consistent now that even if he threw in two or three duff legs and gifted Berry a chance, Suljovic will be able to grind it back pretty quickly, while he's got through, he's not killed quickly and will give Mensur more than enough chances. 2u Suljovic 1/16

Gary Anderson v Michael Smith

Legs won: Anderson 15 (4/7/3/1), Smith 14 (2/7/4/1)
Legs lost: Anderson 6 (97.10), Smith 12 (102.65)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg: Anderson 62.64%, Smith 20.33%

Similar betting scenario to the Bunting/Wright game where Anderson's around a 3-1 favourite and the chances of winning my model generates are somewhat similar. Anderson, however, has a limited sample size, consisting of more or less just the Matchplay and this, but in this he's looked excellent. Smith, however, has been no slouch himself, only missing out on sweeping the group by tiny margins, and it's excellent news that he appears to be returning to form. There might be very small Smith value, but given how quickly his form can disappear and that he is facing what looks to be a peaking Anderson, I'm not going to rush out to bet on it.

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