Sunday, 26 November 2017

Players Championship final day

A bunch more seeds and name players have dropped out now, having lost Anderson, Wright and Cullen from the top 8 on day one, Suljovic and Chisnall went out yesterday, leaving us with just Cross, Gurney and van Gerwen who the seedings would say should reach this stage. A few surprising names left in, I wouldn't have picked Wade to reach this far, Beaton and Clayton are believable enough I guess but it's still a bit noteworthy to see them get through three games already, Dekker's come through two FRH top 10 players, while Pipe's managed to grind out two last leg wins. Looking at the prices today, we've got one stupidly long odds on match (van Gerwen/Dekker), two where we have a solid favourite (Cross/Wade, Gurney/Pipe), then Beaton against Clayton, which appears somewhat evenly matched. I think there's a bet on here - 0.5u Beaton 11/8. I've put all of the first round into my database now and am working on rounds 2/3 as we speak, but the long and short of it is that neither player is doing that much better than their historical stats speak. Beaton's historical stats are a lot better than Clayton's are - the key difference being that Beaton slots in twelve dart legs a lot more often than Clayton does. Beaton's also a bit better in overall legs in fifteen and eighteen darts or less than Clayton does, their scoring when losing legs is basically identical, running the figures through the sheet I had up for calculating round one would put Beaton as a 2/1 favourite, and that is over a best of 11 legs - over a longer distance, the better player should come through even more frequently. Factor in intangibles (Beaton's played a lot more high pressure games, he's a world champion for one, whereas Clayton lacks some experience in longer matches and this is for the biggest payday of his career) and this is a really confusing line to me.

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