Monday 20 November 2017

Players Championship Finals and more on how good van Gerwen is

I've now caught up with the stats, and I'll quickly say something about van Gerwen - he's truly back to his best. He won 73 legs this week, of which 26 were won in 12 darts or less, an average of over 35%. His season to date record, which includes the Grand Slam, is a pedestrian 26% in comparison (nobody with a sample size of 10 or more legs won this season is even in the twenties). Factor in legs won in less than 15 darts, and that's another 32 legs - 58 out of 73, or 79%, higher than his season long average of 76%. Of the field, even hitting 70% is tough - you have Lewis, Anderson, Bain (yes, really), Taylor and van Barneveld at that level with a sample of 30+ legs won. What about when he's not winning? Well in the Slam he finished five points short of a 100 average from 180 visits to the board, solidly above his season long average of just short of 96 - only Anderson and Taylor with at least 20 legs lost are even at 95.

The PDC have published the "draw" to the Players Championship final which we've all known for ages, so let's shove numbers into the master computer and see what people's chances of winning are, as always based on speed of kills, and assuming if we get to 5-5 that they start the last leg an equal amount of the time, i.e. winning the bull is a coinflip. If I've highlighted a player in green they've won less than 50 legs this year so sample size might be an issue but you should be OK to roll with it, if I've highlighted a player in yellow then they have won less than 25 legs this season and you should take care, if I've highlighted someone in red then they've won less than 10 legs this season and you should be ultra careful, if not flat out ignore the information. As always, this doesn't take into account form or injuries (if you bet on, say, Kist based on whatever these numbers suggest, then you're insane). I'll post in seeding order rather than draw order, in order to highlight a hopefully gradual trend from one sided games to coinflips, of course when people don't play the whole circuit, hilarity can ensue:

Rob Cross v Robert Owen - 76.73% Cross
Daryl Gurney v Jeffrey de Zwaan - 60.18% Gurney
Peter Wright v Steve Hine - no data on Hine
Gary Anderson v Mickey Mansell - 69.90% Anderson
Mensur Suljovic v Andy Boulton - 65.71% Suljovic
Michael van Gerwen v Paul Nicholson - 97.34% van Gerwen
Dave Chisnall v Joe Murnan - 66.04% Chisnall
Joe Cullen v Jamie Caven - 83.95% Cullen
Ian White v Raymond van Barneveld - 61.13% van Barneveld
Kyle Anderson v Ron Meulenkamp - 85.11% Anderson
Darren Webster v Antonio Alcinas - 97.85% Webster
Jonny Clayton v Jeffrey de Graaf - 68.37% Clayton
Alan Norris v Jelle Klaasen - 50.20% Klaasen
Michael Smith v Jan Dekker - 67.28% Smith
Kim Huybrechts v Chris Dobey - 85.90% Huybrechts
Richard North v Pete Hudson - 74.40% Hudson
Adrian Lewis v Mike de Decker - 91.88% Lewis
Robert Thornton v James Richardson - 60.49% Richardson
Simon Whitlock v Christian Kist - 62.10% Whitlock
Steve Beaton v Ronny Huybrechts - 61.62% Beaton
Gerwyn Price v Jimmy Hendriks - 77.86% Price
Mervyn King v Brendan Dolan - 90.35% King
Justin Pipe v Mark Webster - 58.08% Pipe
John Henderson v Darren Johnson - 55.80% Henderson
James Wade v Kevin Painter - 63.61% Wade
James Wilson v Willie O'Connor - 53.38% O'Connor
Steve West v Ryan Searle - 77.36% West
Stephen Bunting v Benito van de Pas - 53.95% Bunting
Jermaine Wattimena v Keegan Brown - 51.62% Brown
Peter Jacques v Cristo Reyes - 69.50% Reyes
Vincent van der Voort v Robbie Green - 59.60% van der Voort
Steve Lennon v Zoran Lerchbacher - 89.81% Lennon

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