Wednesday 15 November 2017

Grand Slam Day 6 - Last 16 Top Half Preview

Betting, er, didn't go to plan, nice of Phil to mail it in once qualified in the final game for a second year running

Michael van Gerwen v Steve Lennon

Legs won: van Gerwen 15 (7 twelve darters, 3 fifteen darters, 5 eighteen darters, 0 nineteen darters or worse), Lennon 10 (2/4/3/1)
Legs lost: van Gerwen 7 (99.79 average), Lennon 10 (91.88)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg (data from 2017 Lakeside onwards): van Gerwen 77.60%, Lennon 10.32%

Bit of caution needs to be applied here, Lennon has a very small sample size, only having made a handful of European Tour events and only getting the one win whilst there, so his stats look pretty decent without having to hit many elite legs at all. Getting here on account of whitewashing Jamie Hughes and being a beneficiary of Hughes nearly doing the same to Gerwyn Price, he's qualified with just the one win. van Gerwen won all three games but could easily have lost against Rob Cross, and naturally found matchups with Ross Montgomery and Joe Murnan fairly easily. For Lennon I think getting out of the group stages is job done, with van Gerwen being 1/25 I'm not going to be betting him either.

Raymond van Barneveld v Rob Cross

Legs won: van Barneveld 15 (0/13/1/1), Cross 14 (5/7/2/0)
Legs lost: van Barneveld 7 (87.52), Cross 8 (93.73)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg: van Barneveld 49.97%, Cross 30.61%

Now we get to a much more interesting event - this is somewhat of a statement game for Cross, who's hit some blistering peaks with five legs in twelve darts or less, while Barney has been very consistent, clocking off all his legs very quickly with all but two legs in five visits or better. Surprisingly, Barney's stats look better, with a greater percentage of legs won in four and five visits throughout the year, but this comes from a much smaller sample size than Cross who's not too far behind. Barney's an 11/8 underdog which hints at value based on season long results, but Cross' recent form and ability to stay close over a much larger sample evens things out enough for me.

Phil Taylor v Darren Webster

Legs won: Taylor 13 (2/6/3/2), Webster 9 (0/5/4/0)
Legs lost: Taylor 10 (88.43), Webster 12 (90.18)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg: Taylor 59.44%, Webster 22.73%

Firstly let me say what a joke it is that the PDC can't figure out better tie breakers that necessitate a nine dart shootout for Webster to make it through, should clearly be either legs won or head to head in some order, but he's here now and the market is giving him a little bit more than a 20% chance to make it. Taylor hasn't looked amazing, in particular against Wade he was awful statistically, but Webster's not exactly been forcing the issue, only really having a good performance against Noppert, if Darren had a touch more form then I might have fancied a little flyer, but this is a long event and Taylor will have had a day to rest up, so will avoid it with the value based on the stats being minimal, if it exists at all.

Daryl Gurney v James Wade

Legs won: Gurney 15 (1/9/4/1), Wade 11 (1/4/5/1)
Legs lost: Gurney 5 (91.36), Wade 9 (82.90)
Chances of winning before a deciding leg: Gurney 67.34%, Wade 17.02%

Right James, you've been given a reprieve by Phil having an uncharacteristic bad match, go and do something with it. Will he? Probably not. Wade's performing here has mirrored Wade's performing all season, not finishing half his legs in under fifteen darts, not getting close to the 90's in losing legs, not hitting very many twelves at all. Gurney's always been underrated in my stats for whatever reason, probably because like Wade he's not the tidiest on finishing in fifteen darts, but he's a lot better and has certainly been improving this of recent. Gurney's installed at 4/9, which looks good to me given Gurney's form, stats and ability to turn it on on TV this past year - 1u Gurney 4/9.

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