There's at least a line for every game on Betfair now, but everyone else including oddschecker is lagging behind to some extent, so let's pull up five bookies and go through the games, seeing if there's anything we want:
0.5u White 2/5, Betfair are too generous here
0.5u Suljovic 10/21, Betfair again being too nice
0.25u Clayton 20/21, how is this a pick'em, Waites has been good today but Clayton remains class
0.25u Pipe 10/11, similar, not sure how this is close
0.25u Webster evs, this seems deceptively easy
0.25u Lowe 11/5, shouldn't be anywhere near that long against Adie in current form
0.1u Wilson 19/4, seems worth the stab if I've got them substantially closer
Friday, 6 March 2020
UK Open round 4 winning chances
Bets will follow once there's more than a handful of lines up, give it half an hour, but for now, the winning chances of each player:
Got to have been a long time since none of van Gerwen, Price or Wright have been in the top half of favoured players in terms of likelihood to advance, but here we are. I love the UK Open. I hate dartsdata. Back shortly.
Got to have been a long time since none of van Gerwen, Price or Wright have been in the top half of favoured players in terms of likelihood to advance, but here we are. I love the UK Open. I hate dartsdata. Back shortly.
UK Open afternoon live post
Afternoon people,
Just about caught up with the round one results, got 20 games into the database, will post round 2/3 tips as we go, OK performance on the round 1 picks with a half unit gain with just the Heta and Meikle picks still to go.
1250 - 0.25u Sedlacek 4/9 is available on 365
1255 - Checked the rest of the round 2 games that are finalised, nothing is appealing
1310 - OH MY GOD SHERROCK IS ACTUALLY WEARING A RILEY'S SHIRT
1318 - Half tempted by Askew over Klaasen at 11/5, maybe if there's money on Jelle I'll think about it
1330 - Not seeing anything new yet, but it's pretty disappointing that the first Kai Fan Leung game is frozen in time on dartsdata, and the Cheeseman game is nowhere to be seen on Dart Connect, hopefully the latter, given it was on a stream board, will show up on Youtube soon, but we'll see
1337 - 0.25u Heaver 13/8 against McKinstry, their first round games were fairly similar so I guess that this might be a bit closer, a 6-0 has to fill Jason with a bunch of confidence
1411 - Still seeing no further bets, but it looks like dartsdata doesn't recognise that Scott Waites' second round game exists, hopefully Dart Connect picks that one up as well
1415 - Not seen a line yet, but Evetts over Wilson is surely one to look at
1423 - Seeing 8/11 Evetts, which is borderline, will have a look at other bookies. Kuivenhoven against Clemens will be an interesting one to look at, Maik will probably be a bit underrated and may be worth a tenth of a unit play
1424 - Never mind that Kuivenhoven comment, the previous game's finished and that game started before anyone could post a line, lol
1426 - The Waites game has come through, Dart Connect's just a bit funky and not sorting by board, so it was hidden at the bottom
1434 - 0.25u Evetts 10/11 is available on 365
1515 - Can't believe both Meulenkamp and Smith lost, just ridiculous. I found all but a few darts of the de Decker game eventually, but Dart Connect eventually came through for that one. Doubt there'll be any more tips at this stage, nothing looks inspiring so check back for round four, now with less Max Hopp
Just about caught up with the round one results, got 20 games into the database, will post round 2/3 tips as we go, OK performance on the round 1 picks with a half unit gain with just the Heta and Meikle picks still to go.
1250 - 0.25u Sedlacek 4/9 is available on 365
1255 - Checked the rest of the round 2 games that are finalised, nothing is appealing
1310 - OH MY GOD SHERROCK IS ACTUALLY WEARING A RILEY'S SHIRT
1318 - Half tempted by Askew over Klaasen at 11/5, maybe if there's money on Jelle I'll think about it
1330 - Not seeing anything new yet, but it's pretty disappointing that the first Kai Fan Leung game is frozen in time on dartsdata, and the Cheeseman game is nowhere to be seen on Dart Connect, hopefully the latter, given it was on a stream board, will show up on Youtube soon, but we'll see
1337 - 0.25u Heaver 13/8 against McKinstry, their first round games were fairly similar so I guess that this might be a bit closer, a 6-0 has to fill Jason with a bunch of confidence
1411 - Still seeing no further bets, but it looks like dartsdata doesn't recognise that Scott Waites' second round game exists, hopefully Dart Connect picks that one up as well
1415 - Not seen a line yet, but Evetts over Wilson is surely one to look at
1423 - Seeing 8/11 Evetts, which is borderline, will have a look at other bookies. Kuivenhoven against Clemens will be an interesting one to look at, Maik will probably be a bit underrated and may be worth a tenth of a unit play
1424 - Never mind that Kuivenhoven comment, the previous game's finished and that game started before anyone could post a line, lol
1426 - The Waites game has come through, Dart Connect's just a bit funky and not sorting by board, so it was hidden at the bottom
1434 - 0.25u Evetts 10/11 is available on 365
1515 - Can't believe both Meulenkamp and Smith lost, just ridiculous. I found all but a few darts of the de Decker game eventually, but Dart Connect eventually came through for that one. Doubt there'll be any more tips at this stage, nothing looks inspiring so check back for round four, now with less Max Hopp
Wednesday, 4 March 2020
2020 UK Open tips
As ever, we don't have every game available to look at, so I'm going to have to give reads on those games that we know, and estimate the rest, with the nature of the UK Open field a lot of it's going to be somewhat speculative, so let's look at rounds 1-3.
Round 1
de Decker/Ashton - I think this is worth a small stab at Lisa, 0.1u Ashton 11/5, their winning legs aren't too far apart, that there's a big consistency differential is an issue, but maybe the crowd likely being on Lisa's side will make the difference.
Larsson/Meikle - Looks a great spot for someone who's ripped up the Dev Tour recently, 0.25u Meikle 4/5, he's favoured much more than that in my opinion.
Koltsov/van Trijp - Don't think there's much between then, although my data on Danny is limited. Maybe the values on Boris, but it's not much.
Davidson/Borland - Borland hasn't looked brilliant but should have more than enough against Davidson, whose Challenge Tour weekend was very worrying.
Heta/Waites - I can see why this is priced close, but it shouldn't be like that just on reputation, 0.25u Heta 8/11, reputation counts for little these days.
Telnekes/Kleermaker - Appears fairly close, oddly enough, can leave this one alone.
McKinstry/Sherrock - This ought to be close as well and is priced as such, almost want to take Sherrock at slightly odds against based on the crowd, but can pass on it.
Heaver/Noguera - Heaver's meant to be fairly decent, but I don't know where he's at with any sort of reliability to take him at not even 2/1 against a tour card holder who's scoring 89.
Huckvale/Burton - Burton certainly averaged a lot better than Huckvale on the Challenge Tour, and it's only that Adam had some decent results that's leaning me away from him. I guess I can pass, Stephen's only 4/5.
Harris/Taylor - Got a fair bit of data on these two, and it likes Cody comfortably enough, 0.25u Harris 11/10. It's over 60% so 11/10's tasty enough.
Siepmann/Kciuk - This looks very good, Steffen's not even close to Krzysztof, 0.25u Kciuk 4/6, almost tempted to go stronger, this probably ought to be closer to 4/9, if not shorter.
Jacques/Teehan - Small stab on Peter here, 0.25u Jacques 19/20, Teehan's not had the greatest of times since the worlds and Peter is projecting over 60%.
Askew/Ritchie - Ritchie looked alright on the Challenge Tour, and while we know Askew should be somewhat dangerous, I think Greg being a tiny favourite isn't unreasonable.
Smith-Neale/Cheeseman - Know nothing of Cheeseman. Know enough about Smith-Neale that a 2/5 price doesn't seem like it should be that far off the mark.
McGuirk/Rydz - Rydz ought to be the favourite, and is, but Shane appears to have enough quality that I think he'll get home around the one time in three that the market's thinking.
Williams/Owen - Challenge Tour sort by average special this one, 0.25u Williams 11/10, Owen's got course and distance here but it's been some time since he's shown what he can do.
Jones/Blades - Half tempted by Jones, but 4/7's just about too much on the short side given the projections I use will likely overrate him given his wild inconsistency.
van Peer/Roelofs - Owen didn't look great on the Challenge Tour and van Peer's had some success in recent times, so I think Berry ought to be favoured, he is, but I'd want a bit more than 4/7 to really consider it.
Doets/Thompson - Doets tops the Development Tour averages right now. That's almost worth punting on alone, but 2/5 is perhaps a wee bit unforgiving, we'd need to be right so often, I can't justify it.
fan Leung/Self - Kai's a quality operator, looking extremely impressive statistically, so much so that while I'd normally take mostly anyone at 4/1 at this stage I don't think I can do it.
Hunt/Sedlacek - Too close to call in both my projections at the market. Maybe I'm liking Sedlacek more than the market, but thinking he should be 10/11 when he's 11/10 is no biggie and certainly not worth betting on.
Burness/Leitinger - Seems a close game, market is like that, fortunately we don't need to punt so we can leave this one alone, Kevin may have a small edge but that's where the line lies anyway.
Barry/Tabern - Keane being the slight favourite feels correct, maybe Tabern's experience will count for something but it's another one we can just pass on.
Barnard/Brown - Steve's started the season very well. Michael not so much. Why this is so close is beyond me, 0.25u Brown 8/13.
Hamilton/Lynskey - Hammer's looked OK, doing enough on the Pro Tour in comparison to Patrick on the Challenge Tour that a 70/30 projection feels as if it's in the correct neighbourhood.
Beveridge/Rafferty - Think you can make an argument for either, not much to choose from, Nathan's mediocre showing last weekend is almost making me want to punt for Ice Cold (that is a great nickname) at just better than evens, but maybe it was just an off weekend.
Hayden/Clark - Similar game, can barely separate the two on fairly limited information, as the market has it tight we can move on, Rhys being slightly odds on is probably where I'd put the line as well.
Richardson/Penhall - We've got real data on these two - however it's saying too close to call. Darren's almost worth the shot at 13/10 but it's a big event for him and James has been in this sort of spot many times before, which may negate anything we have.
Menzies/Brooks - Cameron's been quiet for a few months now, but looks like he's done enough on the Challenge Tour that, coupled with historical information, his small favourite line against Bradley appears fair.
Beeney/Harms - 1u Harms 1/6, wish I'd have got on at 1/4, Aaron's outclassed against Wesley here.
Smith/Jenkins - Christ, how many razor-thin first round games are we going to get? This is one more in the market, with their Challenge Tour averages extremely similar, move on...
Atkins/Murray - Ah, finally one we can shove into the master computer, which reckons this should be near two to one in favour of Ryan, so 0.25u Murray 8/11
Round 2
de Decker/Ashton v Meikle/Larsson - If Meikle advances, then he should probably be about a flip against either, if it's Larsson that goes through, then he's got to be a decent underdog, don't take either of the other players anywhere south of 1/2. For all these conditional games I'll put where I think the line should be, but on Friday I'll be rushing back to enter live results and suggest live tips. If anyone puts up a really good performance (say no more than two legs won outside of fifteen darts and no really bad losing legs), then pull their chances in ever so slightly.
Koltsov/van Trijp v Davidson/Borland - Willie ought to be a 60/40 favourite against either of these, he's playing well enough.
Heta/Waites v Nentjes - Heta ought to be a 1/2 favourite against Geert, if Scotty gets through then call it evens.
Telnekes/Kleermaker v Razma - Going to be hard to call given Razma's up and down nature, Madars should have an edge but if you can get longer than about 13/8 on Kleermaker then go for it, Derk I'd want a little bit longer.
McKinstry/Sherrock v Noguera/Heaver - This is going to be an awkward one to read. I'd say Noguera's probably 40/60 or there abouts, but I'd just avoid this one as you don't know how either Jesus or Jason will react to the stage situation.
Huckvale/Burton v van der Meer - Should be a tight second round game, would probably line it up around 8/11 for Vincent against either.
Harris/Taylor v Lowe - Jason's playing very well and should be a decent enough favourite, around 60/40.
Worsley v Clark - Model can't separate the two, and neither can the market, move on.
Siepmann/Kciuk v Wilkinson - Hard to see how Wilkinson could be considered a favourite assuming Kcuik advances, but I'd need at least 4/5 to go with the Pole and have any edge, similarly I'd need 2/1 for Carl. If it's Siepmann somehow then Carl should be strongly odds on, if you can get 2/5 or better you'd have a good edge.
Ward v Carlin - Gavin rates decently better here, he's a fair bit more inconsistent than Harry but 0.25u Carlin evs looks very nice to me.
Jacques/Teehan v Meeuwisse - The two first rounders rate quite close on the market, and should both rate very close to Yordi, if the market chucks out 6/4 on anyone take the underdog.
Askew/Ritchie v Rodriguez - Rowby should be easily too solid for either. Hard to gauge a line with the lack of information on the two at main tour level, thinking that the Austrian should come in around 1/2, maybe 2/5, but probably doesn't.
Smith-Neale/Cheeseman v Rydz/McGuirk - Going to be tight to call. I would think that, assuming Adam gets through the first game, it'll be priced around 4/7 for Callan or Shane.
Williams/Owen v Gray - Adrian's not been hugely convincing, but should have a slight edge. If it's priced as a flip I'd probably take Adrian, but would need at least 7/4 to consider either of the qualifiers.
Jones/Blades v Whitehead - Conan projects more or less evens with Jones, and has similar wild inconsistency. If Wayne gets through then it's similar to the Meeuwisse game, if offered 6/4 either side grab it. If Gary gets through, he should be a fairly big dog, would take up to 1/2 on Whitehead in that situation.
van Peer/Roelofs v Evetts - Ted should be a decent favourite in this one, I'd price it 1/2 against van Peer and shorter against Roelofs, to give you a rough idea if they don't respect Ted's game.
Doets/Thompson v Pallett - I get the feeling that Doets is doing well enough that he ought to measure up fairly closely to Dave, all things considered. Another one where if the market chucks out a 60/40 sort of line then go with who the market doesn't like.
fan Leung/Self v Shepherd - Kai should be a prohibitive favourite here. If they think Kirk's got a realistic chance then go on Kai, 1/2 I'd probably take.
Hunt/Sedlacek v Bates - Barrie's in a bad enough place right now that he should be a large underdog. I'd go a 3/1 sort of line, if you can get a chunk better on either Adam or Karel then print the money.
Burness/Leitinger v Murnan - Joe's had a couple of good results, but nothing brilliant - this one ought to be a fairly tight game whoever advances out of it.
Barry/Tabern v Barnard/Brown - Assuming Brown gets through, which he should, then I think he'll have a small advantage against either opponent. As the market doesn't like him in his first game, then I'd imagine we're offered at least 6/4, maybe a lot longer, so keep an eye on this one.
Hamilton/Lynskey v Zonneveld - Might be a good spot for Niels here. I'm seeing him playing just about well enough that he should be a tiny favourite over Andy, and I don't think he'll be priced as such.
Beveridge/Rafferty v van Duivenbode - Another one that should be close, and might be exploitable - Mike I think has the better of it, but it's very marginal, that said, the market may favour the other guy, in which case go with Mike.
Hayden/Clark v Richardson/Penhall - I'd be tempted to avoid this one without seeing how Hayden or Clark do on the day. I'd guess 4/7 on Richardson/Penhall is the sort of price where I'd be avoiding the match.
Menzies/Brooks v Kenny - Kenny's had a good start to the season, but it's not a prohibitively better start - I'd put a line at around 8/11 on Kenny against Brooks, maybe closer to a pick'em against Menzies.
Beeney/Harms v Smith/Jenkins - Harms has enough quality here that he should be value at anything better than 4/5, regardless of opponent - if Beeney somehow gets through then almost no price will be too short on Smith or Jenkins.
Atkins/Murray v Bunse - Christian's looked alright, if he was to play Murray then I'd set a line at 4/5 for the German, adjusting a bit shorter if Atkins advances, if it was Martin going through then I'd bet at 4/6 on Christian, and I doubt I'd ever see a long enough price to go against him.
Baker v McGeeney - This one appears incredibly tight on paper, but we're being offered an alright price on the Mod, so 0.25u Baker 13/8, this is only 52/48 really.
Boulton v Robinson - No idea why this is close, 0.25u Boulton 10/11, this is easily 70/30 in Boulton's favour.
Smith v Michael - This is almost close to a punt on Michael, he's playing well enough that 2/1 is fairly close to value, but he only wins this in the high 30% region, so the edge isn't quite there for me.
Kantele v van Duijvenbode - Oddly, the market may have overreacted to Dirk's recent form. Marko's playing alright, he might have as much as a 40% chance here, so I really should be looking at the 5/2 price here, but it's so hard to back him because of the inconsistency variance and that he's lost a very high percentage of legs which extenuates that problem. The legs he wins are good, they're just real infrequent.
Derry v Kuivenhoven - Looks like an alright spot to go with Maik here, 0.25u Kuivenhoven 8/13, he's got a 70% chance to win here more or less, that's enough of an edge for me.
Round 3
I'm not going to go through every permutation here, just the guaranteed games, the rest will come live as we get down to it on Friday in running.
Humphries v Anderson - I really, really want to bet on Kyle here, the model loves him, but Luke's on fire right now, so I'll pass and regret it.
Huybrechts v Thornton - 60/40 line this one for me. Maybe tiny value on Robert, but it's not enough to consider a bet, Kim's at least trending in the right direction which'll help matters.
Payne v Woodhouse - Market appears to have this one perfect. They have Woodhouse as a tiny 4/5 favourite, I'm seeing 53/47 in Luke's favour. Nothing here.
Searle v Reyes - This is as near as damnit to 60/40 in favour of your newest Pro Tour winner. There's no value in this one either.
O'Connor v Dekker - Yet another game where the line looks good. Willie's playing darts to a good enough level that the 1/2 line is justified, maybe I'd have put it 8/15 but it's nitpicking.
Meulenkamp v North - There's few signs that Richard's getting out of his slump yet, but we can get nearly 4/6 on Ron? That'll do for me, 0.25u Meulenkamp 8/13, this ought to be nearer 4/11 really. He's that much better right now.
Lewis v Smith - Er, how is this one even close in the market? 0.25u Smith 8/11, that's a quite absurd line, Smith should be shorter than 1/2.
Schindler v van de Pas - I wouldn't like to call a winner on this one, and the market doesn't want to call it either. Probably goes to a deciding leg. Very competitive game.
Watch out on Friday for live tips as the afternoon session goes on.
Round 1
de Decker/Ashton - I think this is worth a small stab at Lisa, 0.1u Ashton 11/5, their winning legs aren't too far apart, that there's a big consistency differential is an issue, but maybe the crowd likely being on Lisa's side will make the difference.
Larsson/Meikle - Looks a great spot for someone who's ripped up the Dev Tour recently, 0.25u Meikle 4/5, he's favoured much more than that in my opinion.
Koltsov/van Trijp - Don't think there's much between then, although my data on Danny is limited. Maybe the values on Boris, but it's not much.
Davidson/Borland - Borland hasn't looked brilliant but should have more than enough against Davidson, whose Challenge Tour weekend was very worrying.
Heta/Waites - I can see why this is priced close, but it shouldn't be like that just on reputation, 0.25u Heta 8/11, reputation counts for little these days.
Telnekes/Kleermaker - Appears fairly close, oddly enough, can leave this one alone.
McKinstry/Sherrock - This ought to be close as well and is priced as such, almost want to take Sherrock at slightly odds against based on the crowd, but can pass on it.
Heaver/Noguera - Heaver's meant to be fairly decent, but I don't know where he's at with any sort of reliability to take him at not even 2/1 against a tour card holder who's scoring 89.
Huckvale/Burton - Burton certainly averaged a lot better than Huckvale on the Challenge Tour, and it's only that Adam had some decent results that's leaning me away from him. I guess I can pass, Stephen's only 4/5.
Harris/Taylor - Got a fair bit of data on these two, and it likes Cody comfortably enough, 0.25u Harris 11/10. It's over 60% so 11/10's tasty enough.
Siepmann/Kciuk - This looks very good, Steffen's not even close to Krzysztof, 0.25u Kciuk 4/6, almost tempted to go stronger, this probably ought to be closer to 4/9, if not shorter.
Jacques/Teehan - Small stab on Peter here, 0.25u Jacques 19/20, Teehan's not had the greatest of times since the worlds and Peter is projecting over 60%.
Askew/Ritchie - Ritchie looked alright on the Challenge Tour, and while we know Askew should be somewhat dangerous, I think Greg being a tiny favourite isn't unreasonable.
Smith-Neale/Cheeseman - Know nothing of Cheeseman. Know enough about Smith-Neale that a 2/5 price doesn't seem like it should be that far off the mark.
McGuirk/Rydz - Rydz ought to be the favourite, and is, but Shane appears to have enough quality that I think he'll get home around the one time in three that the market's thinking.
Williams/Owen - Challenge Tour sort by average special this one, 0.25u Williams 11/10, Owen's got course and distance here but it's been some time since he's shown what he can do.
Jones/Blades - Half tempted by Jones, but 4/7's just about too much on the short side given the projections I use will likely overrate him given his wild inconsistency.
van Peer/Roelofs - Owen didn't look great on the Challenge Tour and van Peer's had some success in recent times, so I think Berry ought to be favoured, he is, but I'd want a bit more than 4/7 to really consider it.
Doets/Thompson - Doets tops the Development Tour averages right now. That's almost worth punting on alone, but 2/5 is perhaps a wee bit unforgiving, we'd need to be right so often, I can't justify it.
fan Leung/Self - Kai's a quality operator, looking extremely impressive statistically, so much so that while I'd normally take mostly anyone at 4/1 at this stage I don't think I can do it.
Hunt/Sedlacek - Too close to call in both my projections at the market. Maybe I'm liking Sedlacek more than the market, but thinking he should be 10/11 when he's 11/10 is no biggie and certainly not worth betting on.
Burness/Leitinger - Seems a close game, market is like that, fortunately we don't need to punt so we can leave this one alone, Kevin may have a small edge but that's where the line lies anyway.
Barry/Tabern - Keane being the slight favourite feels correct, maybe Tabern's experience will count for something but it's another one we can just pass on.
Barnard/Brown - Steve's started the season very well. Michael not so much. Why this is so close is beyond me, 0.25u Brown 8/13.
Hamilton/Lynskey - Hammer's looked OK, doing enough on the Pro Tour in comparison to Patrick on the Challenge Tour that a 70/30 projection feels as if it's in the correct neighbourhood.
Beveridge/Rafferty - Think you can make an argument for either, not much to choose from, Nathan's mediocre showing last weekend is almost making me want to punt for Ice Cold (that is a great nickname) at just better than evens, but maybe it was just an off weekend.
Hayden/Clark - Similar game, can barely separate the two on fairly limited information, as the market has it tight we can move on, Rhys being slightly odds on is probably where I'd put the line as well.
Richardson/Penhall - We've got real data on these two - however it's saying too close to call. Darren's almost worth the shot at 13/10 but it's a big event for him and James has been in this sort of spot many times before, which may negate anything we have.
Menzies/Brooks - Cameron's been quiet for a few months now, but looks like he's done enough on the Challenge Tour that, coupled with historical information, his small favourite line against Bradley appears fair.
Beeney/Harms - 1u Harms 1/6, wish I'd have got on at 1/4, Aaron's outclassed against Wesley here.
Smith/Jenkins - Christ, how many razor-thin first round games are we going to get? This is one more in the market, with their Challenge Tour averages extremely similar, move on...
Atkins/Murray - Ah, finally one we can shove into the master computer, which reckons this should be near two to one in favour of Ryan, so 0.25u Murray 8/11
Round 2
de Decker/Ashton v Meikle/Larsson - If Meikle advances, then he should probably be about a flip against either, if it's Larsson that goes through, then he's got to be a decent underdog, don't take either of the other players anywhere south of 1/2. For all these conditional games I'll put where I think the line should be, but on Friday I'll be rushing back to enter live results and suggest live tips. If anyone puts up a really good performance (say no more than two legs won outside of fifteen darts and no really bad losing legs), then pull their chances in ever so slightly.
Koltsov/van Trijp v Davidson/Borland - Willie ought to be a 60/40 favourite against either of these, he's playing well enough.
Heta/Waites v Nentjes - Heta ought to be a 1/2 favourite against Geert, if Scotty gets through then call it evens.
Telnekes/Kleermaker v Razma - Going to be hard to call given Razma's up and down nature, Madars should have an edge but if you can get longer than about 13/8 on Kleermaker then go for it, Derk I'd want a little bit longer.
McKinstry/Sherrock v Noguera/Heaver - This is going to be an awkward one to read. I'd say Noguera's probably 40/60 or there abouts, but I'd just avoid this one as you don't know how either Jesus or Jason will react to the stage situation.
Huckvale/Burton v van der Meer - Should be a tight second round game, would probably line it up around 8/11 for Vincent against either.
Harris/Taylor v Lowe - Jason's playing very well and should be a decent enough favourite, around 60/40.
Worsley v Clark - Model can't separate the two, and neither can the market, move on.
Siepmann/Kciuk v Wilkinson - Hard to see how Wilkinson could be considered a favourite assuming Kcuik advances, but I'd need at least 4/5 to go with the Pole and have any edge, similarly I'd need 2/1 for Carl. If it's Siepmann somehow then Carl should be strongly odds on, if you can get 2/5 or better you'd have a good edge.
Ward v Carlin - Gavin rates decently better here, he's a fair bit more inconsistent than Harry but 0.25u Carlin evs looks very nice to me.
Jacques/Teehan v Meeuwisse - The two first rounders rate quite close on the market, and should both rate very close to Yordi, if the market chucks out 6/4 on anyone take the underdog.
Askew/Ritchie v Rodriguez - Rowby should be easily too solid for either. Hard to gauge a line with the lack of information on the two at main tour level, thinking that the Austrian should come in around 1/2, maybe 2/5, but probably doesn't.
Smith-Neale/Cheeseman v Rydz/McGuirk - Going to be tight to call. I would think that, assuming Adam gets through the first game, it'll be priced around 4/7 for Callan or Shane.
Williams/Owen v Gray - Adrian's not been hugely convincing, but should have a slight edge. If it's priced as a flip I'd probably take Adrian, but would need at least 7/4 to consider either of the qualifiers.
Jones/Blades v Whitehead - Conan projects more or less evens with Jones, and has similar wild inconsistency. If Wayne gets through then it's similar to the Meeuwisse game, if offered 6/4 either side grab it. If Gary gets through, he should be a fairly big dog, would take up to 1/2 on Whitehead in that situation.
van Peer/Roelofs v Evetts - Ted should be a decent favourite in this one, I'd price it 1/2 against van Peer and shorter against Roelofs, to give you a rough idea if they don't respect Ted's game.
Doets/Thompson v Pallett - I get the feeling that Doets is doing well enough that he ought to measure up fairly closely to Dave, all things considered. Another one where if the market chucks out a 60/40 sort of line then go with who the market doesn't like.
fan Leung/Self v Shepherd - Kai should be a prohibitive favourite here. If they think Kirk's got a realistic chance then go on Kai, 1/2 I'd probably take.
Hunt/Sedlacek v Bates - Barrie's in a bad enough place right now that he should be a large underdog. I'd go a 3/1 sort of line, if you can get a chunk better on either Adam or Karel then print the money.
Burness/Leitinger v Murnan - Joe's had a couple of good results, but nothing brilliant - this one ought to be a fairly tight game whoever advances out of it.
Barry/Tabern v Barnard/Brown - Assuming Brown gets through, which he should, then I think he'll have a small advantage against either opponent. As the market doesn't like him in his first game, then I'd imagine we're offered at least 6/4, maybe a lot longer, so keep an eye on this one.
Hamilton/Lynskey v Zonneveld - Might be a good spot for Niels here. I'm seeing him playing just about well enough that he should be a tiny favourite over Andy, and I don't think he'll be priced as such.
Beveridge/Rafferty v van Duivenbode - Another one that should be close, and might be exploitable - Mike I think has the better of it, but it's very marginal, that said, the market may favour the other guy, in which case go with Mike.
Hayden/Clark v Richardson/Penhall - I'd be tempted to avoid this one without seeing how Hayden or Clark do on the day. I'd guess 4/7 on Richardson/Penhall is the sort of price where I'd be avoiding the match.
Menzies/Brooks v Kenny - Kenny's had a good start to the season, but it's not a prohibitively better start - I'd put a line at around 8/11 on Kenny against Brooks, maybe closer to a pick'em against Menzies.
Beeney/Harms v Smith/Jenkins - Harms has enough quality here that he should be value at anything better than 4/5, regardless of opponent - if Beeney somehow gets through then almost no price will be too short on Smith or Jenkins.
Atkins/Murray v Bunse - Christian's looked alright, if he was to play Murray then I'd set a line at 4/5 for the German, adjusting a bit shorter if Atkins advances, if it was Martin going through then I'd bet at 4/6 on Christian, and I doubt I'd ever see a long enough price to go against him.
Baker v McGeeney - This one appears incredibly tight on paper, but we're being offered an alright price on the Mod, so 0.25u Baker 13/8, this is only 52/48 really.
Boulton v Robinson - No idea why this is close, 0.25u Boulton 10/11, this is easily 70/30 in Boulton's favour.
Smith v Michael - This is almost close to a punt on Michael, he's playing well enough that 2/1 is fairly close to value, but he only wins this in the high 30% region, so the edge isn't quite there for me.
Kantele v van Duijvenbode - Oddly, the market may have overreacted to Dirk's recent form. Marko's playing alright, he might have as much as a 40% chance here, so I really should be looking at the 5/2 price here, but it's so hard to back him because of the inconsistency variance and that he's lost a very high percentage of legs which extenuates that problem. The legs he wins are good, they're just real infrequent.
Derry v Kuivenhoven - Looks like an alright spot to go with Maik here, 0.25u Kuivenhoven 8/13, he's got a 70% chance to win here more or less, that's enough of an edge for me.
Round 3
I'm not going to go through every permutation here, just the guaranteed games, the rest will come live as we get down to it on Friday in running.
Humphries v Anderson - I really, really want to bet on Kyle here, the model loves him, but Luke's on fire right now, so I'll pass and regret it.
Huybrechts v Thornton - 60/40 line this one for me. Maybe tiny value on Robert, but it's not enough to consider a bet, Kim's at least trending in the right direction which'll help matters.
Payne v Woodhouse - Market appears to have this one perfect. They have Woodhouse as a tiny 4/5 favourite, I'm seeing 53/47 in Luke's favour. Nothing here.
Searle v Reyes - This is as near as damnit to 60/40 in favour of your newest Pro Tour winner. There's no value in this one either.
O'Connor v Dekker - Yet another game where the line looks good. Willie's playing darts to a good enough level that the 1/2 line is justified, maybe I'd have put it 8/15 but it's nitpicking.
Meulenkamp v North - There's few signs that Richard's getting out of his slump yet, but we can get nearly 4/6 on Ron? That'll do for me, 0.25u Meulenkamp 8/13, this ought to be nearer 4/11 really. He's that much better right now.
Lewis v Smith - Er, how is this one even close in the market? 0.25u Smith 8/11, that's a quite absurd line, Smith should be shorter than 1/2.
Schindler v van de Pas - I wouldn't like to call a winner on this one, and the market doesn't want to call it either. Probably goes to a deciding leg. Very competitive game.
Watch out on Friday for live tips as the afternoon session goes on.
Sunday, 1 March 2020
Belgium done, next stop the arse end of nowhere
King and Suljovic didn't really turn up at all, however van Duijvenbode's run to the semi finals at least mitigated the damage somewhat so we only lost about two thirds of a unit over the weekend. Price ended up winning the thing with a convincing final display over Michael Smith, who'll surely be hugely happy to get another 10k onto his Pro Tour ranking that should push him up the rankings enough so he doesn't need to deal with qualifiers for a while.
Wessel Nijman was able to claim the last Development Tour tournament of the weekend over Martin Schindler, Dom Taylor was in the semis again, could very well be turning into one to watch.
New FRH rankings:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gerwyn Price
4 Rob Cross
5 Michael Smith
6 Nathan Aspinall
7 Daryl Gurney
8 Dave Chisnall
9 James Wade
10 Ian White
11 Glen Durrant
12 Gary Anderson
13 Mensur Suljovic
14 Krzysztof Ratajski
15 Adrian Lewis
16 Stephen Bunting (UP 1)
17 Chris Dobey (DOWN 1)
18 Simon Whitlock
19 Joe Cullen
20 Jonny Clayton
Bunting's the only mover, his first round loss being enough to pinch the top 16 spot for now by less than 30 points. Duzza's within one Pro Tour final of the top 10, while recent hero Dirk van Duijvenbode is now up into the top 80.
I'm not sure what I'm going to post this week, I've posted up early reads for the UK Open, I'll obviously post up actual tips on the Thursday evening and, work depending, will be pretty quick on the Friday to post live tips/thoughts as the day develops (at the very least, I'll post about round four), I know there was some weirdness in one of Danny Noppert's games in terms of shot selection from both players that I wanted to mention, but I'll have to dig through the archives to see what was going on there.
Wessel Nijman was able to claim the last Development Tour tournament of the weekend over Martin Schindler, Dom Taylor was in the semis again, could very well be turning into one to watch.
New FRH rankings:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gerwyn Price
4 Rob Cross
5 Michael Smith
6 Nathan Aspinall
7 Daryl Gurney
8 Dave Chisnall
9 James Wade
10 Ian White
11 Glen Durrant
12 Gary Anderson
13 Mensur Suljovic
14 Krzysztof Ratajski
15 Adrian Lewis
16 Stephen Bunting (UP 1)
17 Chris Dobey (DOWN 1)
18 Simon Whitlock
19 Joe Cullen
20 Jonny Clayton
Bunting's the only mover, his first round loss being enough to pinch the top 16 spot for now by less than 30 points. Duzza's within one Pro Tour final of the top 10, while recent hero Dirk van Duijvenbode is now up into the top 80.
I'm not sure what I'm going to post this week, I've posted up early reads for the UK Open, I'll obviously post up actual tips on the Thursday evening and, work depending, will be pretty quick on the Friday to post live tips/thoughts as the day develops (at the very least, I'll post about round four), I know there was some weirdness in one of Danny Noppert's games in terms of shot selection from both players that I wanted to mention, but I'll have to dig through the archives to see what was going on there.
Cheers Dirk!
van Duijvenbode winning has clawed back roughly half of what we lost yesterday, so we're nowhere near in as bad a spot as it looked yesterday, obviously the highlight news is that van Gerwen is out, but despite that, looking at one book the longest priced favourite is 1/2, so is the semi final lineup as foregone a conclusion as things appear? Let's take a look.
Smith/King - Great result for Michael, nearly fucked it up from a 5-2 lead but got through 6-5, Mervyn was comfortable enough against Kleermaker despite never really hitting top gear. I think Mervyn's got a shot here, over the last six months their stats aren't too dissimilar, so with betway offering a large price we'll go 0.25u King 2/1, Mervyn's probably a good bet at even shorter than that.
Wright/Ratajski - Real tough test for the world champion this. Very tough. I'm reckoning this is around a 60/40 proposition, a lot of books have Wright as a stronger favourite than that, but not enough that there's any real value on Ratajski, I can see 13/8 but that's not quite enough really.
van Duijvenbode/Aspinall - Dirk's still in with a chance here, there's nobody left in the field that seems insurmountable, Nathan's rightly the favourite, but he's only just into the 60% chance bracket with the stats I'm looking at. As such, a small bit of Dirk, 0.1u van Duijvenbode 5/2, seems a decent enough play to me.
Price/Suljovic - Gerwyn crushed Jamie, who wasn't playing badly at all, while Suljovic also looked good against Steve West, who didn't look bad either. Mensur seems undervalued in this one, 0.25u Suljovic 2/1, the Austrian's stat line is very good and not far off Price's at all, this is fairly similar to the King game and analysis.
Elsewhere, Viljanen made another final but lost to Daniel Larsson, Ryan Meikle's made it two from three on the Development Tour defeating Nico Blum, but surprisingly fell early in event four - ran out of steam perhaps?
Smith/King - Great result for Michael, nearly fucked it up from a 5-2 lead but got through 6-5, Mervyn was comfortable enough against Kleermaker despite never really hitting top gear. I think Mervyn's got a shot here, over the last six months their stats aren't too dissimilar, so with betway offering a large price we'll go 0.25u King 2/1, Mervyn's probably a good bet at even shorter than that.
Wright/Ratajski - Real tough test for the world champion this. Very tough. I'm reckoning this is around a 60/40 proposition, a lot of books have Wright as a stronger favourite than that, but not enough that there's any real value on Ratajski, I can see 13/8 but that's not quite enough really.
van Duijvenbode/Aspinall - Dirk's still in with a chance here, there's nobody left in the field that seems insurmountable, Nathan's rightly the favourite, but he's only just into the 60% chance bracket with the stats I'm looking at. As such, a small bit of Dirk, 0.1u van Duijvenbode 5/2, seems a decent enough play to me.
Price/Suljovic - Gerwyn crushed Jamie, who wasn't playing badly at all, while Suljovic also looked good against Steve West, who didn't look bad either. Mensur seems undervalued in this one, 0.25u Suljovic 2/1, the Austrian's stat line is very good and not far off Price's at all, this is fairly similar to the King game and analysis.
Elsewhere, Viljanen made another final but lost to Daniel Larsson, Ryan Meikle's made it two from three on the Development Tour defeating Nico Blum, but surprisingly fell early in event four - ran out of steam perhaps?
Belgium day 3
Before Belgium, props to Ryan Meikle and Berry van Peer on getting Development Tour wins, that rarest of days where Ted Evetts not only doesn't win one, he doesn't make a final (although he did get a semi and last sixteen), also a shout out to Dom Taylor for reaching the semi finals in both events. Also, Kim Viljanen was back in the winners circle edging out Darius Labanauskas in a deciding leg up in his native Finland, we repeat those sets of events today.
So, Saturday, narrow down sixteen games to three bets and they all lose, not ideal given we only needed one to get out with the narrowest of losses, looking at each of these Heta was 1/12 on doubles, most of those were in the comedy leg 2, but he did miss two in leg 4 and a dart at bull in leg 5, I don't think it's unfair to say that if he got two of those three then it's 4-3 on throw to Cross. Huybrechts was similar but closer, 4/19, a lot of de Zwaan's won legs he wasn't in checkout range as Jeffrey looked decent, but three clear in leg six and six clear in leg seven, pin either of those and it's 5-5 and he throws for the match, won't be greedy and say he should pin both and have won. Lennon looked great for five legs, then just forgot how to score which with Wade hitting four straight legs in five visits isn't ideal. Oh well, we continue to today.
van Gerwen/Smith - The English Michael isn't playing badly at all, but we're only being offered 11/4, which given how well the Dutch Michael is playing isn't really enough, I'm seeing between a 25% and 30% chance for Bully Boy, which is right in the range of where the market has the match priced.
King/Kleermaker - Decent shot for the unseeded players to get into the Sunday evening session, the market's thinking about 60/40, maybe slightly more, in favour of King. I kind of agree with that assessment, I think that the little bit of edge that King might have in that he's been in this position in the Euro Tour many times before will also help matters.
Wright/Noppert - Hmm, the market appears to be respecting Noppert a bit more than what it used to do, we can only actually get 9/4 against the world champion. Amazing what a near 109 average will do. That's kind of extinguished any value, I'm seeing Danny at just over 30%, so again, the lines look spot on.
Ratajski/Cross - How times change, this match is even money the pair. If anything, this should be a bit more favoured in the direction of the Pole, it's almost enough to go with him, but not quite, accounting for the fact that we know Cross's class is permanent and if he wants to turn it on, he can do.
van Duijvenbode/de Zwaan - This'll be quick and exciting, Dirk will surely not be worried about Jeffrey having just beaten Ian White and the pace will suit his game perfectly. 0.25u van Duijvenbode 13/8, on current form this one seems too close to call.
Wade/Aspinall - Seeded tie between one guy who dropped out of the Premier League and the guy who replaced him, market is thinking about 60/40 in favour of Aspinall. That is yet another line that I'm thinking is close to perfect, there's not much being given away here at all.
Price/Hughes - Which Jamie's going to show up? If it's the Hughes from the early part of 2019, it should be a real close and tight game, if it isn't, then Price could have this his own way. This is possibly priced a little bit too much in Gerwyn's favour, if we're looking at last six month's data then I'd have thought about 2/1, rather than 13/5, I'm just not convinced that Jamie scored heavily enough yesterday to be able to get enough darts at double.
Suljovic/West - Steve looked very, very good yesterday, stepping up where he needed to against Clayton who really wasn't giving much away at all, Mensur didn't look too bad himself. Don't think there's much value in this one as well, maybe the market is underrating Suljovic ever so slightly, but it's not enough to generate an edge.
So just the one tip then and it's the owner of everyone's favourite walk-on, there's a few that are close, but we'll leave them and see if anything crops up in the quarter finals.
edit - 17/10 on DvD had gone, so adjusted to next best price.
edit - 17/10 on DvD had gone, so adjusted to next best price.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)