Thanks Ricky Evans for blowing that 5-1 lead :)
Some interesting stories on day 1, all but one of the Germans making it through (although one needed Gilding averaging 66 to do so), Barney hitting three twelve darters or better, Gurney turning over Lewis and Pipe losing 6-0 to someone from Sweden who isn't Magnus Caris. On to day 2:
Ian White (11.54% twelve darters, 54.62% fifteen darters, 90.00% eighteen darters, 89.54 losing average) v Jeffrey de Graaf (11.11%, 40.74%, 85.19%, 86.92) - de Graaf's used up his life here and is running into someone who can produce the good leg as often as he can, but is a lot more consistent in all other areas. White's around a 70% favourite which I think is probably a bit high when running simulations, but I think White's consistency sees him through enough.
Stephen Bunting (8.47%, 50.85%, 91.53%, 88.02) v Ted Evetts (16.13%, 41.94%, 83.87%, 89.38) - Evetts has as many twelve darters in my database as Bunting, having won only half as many legs. Bunting's a bit more consistent in other areas, as such he should win this before a deciding leg about half the time, but that's not enough to offset the odds we're offered on Evetts, so I'll have a small play - 0.25u Evetts 7/4
Steve West (7.69%, 42.31%, 86.54%, 85.84) v Kyle Anderson (10.87%, 60.87%, 91.30%, 84.26) - the only thing that West has in his favour is he's less likely to have complete duff legs, which isn't enough really. Anderson isn't much of a betting favourite here at all, maybe the weak average today having an effect, but my simulations have him over 60% without needing a decider which is enough for me - 0.5u Anderson 3/4
Michael Smith (14.44%, 60.00%, 92.22%, 90.43%) v Dragutin Horvat (2.86%, 45.71%, 77.14%, 82.77) - Smith is the far superior player and Horvat's only realistic chance is that the bad Smith from last year turns up. Smith's 80/20 at the bookies, which seems correct give or take a percentage point, so I'll leave alone
Kim Huybrechts (20.00%, 70.53%, 92.63%, 88.25) v Daniel Larsson (16.67%, 33.33%, 83.33%, no data) - Huybrechts isn't Pipe so I can't see Larsson repeating. Kim's 7/1 on which given the lack of data on Larsson, I'll ignore.
Simon Whitlock (9.90%, 67.33%, 91.09%, 91.19) v Jonny Clayton (4.65%, 48.84%, 83.72%, 88.14) - Whitlock is around a 75/25 favourite. The figures I have see him clean up before a deciding leg 65% of the time, and 20% of games get to 5-5, so there's no edge here.
Gerwyn Price (7.79%, 60.39%, 88.96%, 89.23) v Max Hopp (7.55%, 35.85%, 90.57%, 84.76) - Should be an exciting game this with the home crowd likely to get involved, but Price will put away Hopp's continual 18 dart legs more than often enough to get home here, 0.5u Price 8/15
Benito van de Pas (10.69%, 54.20%, 90.84%, 90.63) v Rowby John Rodriguez (3.33%, 46.67%, 83.33%, 87.16) - Rowby, if he turns up, could push Benito, whether he does it enough to justify a bet at 5/2 is another question. He needs around 30% equity to bet, and I only have him winning 21% before a decider, with another 23% of games getting to 5-5. It's very close, and I don't think he was that convincing today to fire.
James Wade (8.33%, 57.84%, 92.65%, 91.34) v Robert Thornton (14.47%, 53.95%, 88.16%, 84.92) - Wade's shorter than 2/1 on, and while he has a huge advantage in terms of not taking legs off, just looking at the legs he wins Wade doesn't win enough and it should actually be a Thornton bet. I don't want to bet on Thornton in a spot like this though, as Wade is the worst type of opponent for him to face.
Joe Cullen (9.65%, 57.02%, 92.98%, 88.52) v Stefan Siepmann (16.67%, 16.67%, 66.67%, 65.23) - Siepmann didn't need to do much to win today. He'll need to do a lot better against Cullen and I really don't think he can. Cullen's 1/10 though, so no bet here.
Mensur Suljovic (11.17%, 67.60%, 96.65%, 92.81) v Jamie Lewis (8.82%, 44.12%, 85.29%, 87.43) - Lewis got through against Lerchbacher who's a solid opponent when he's not missing doubles, which he was. Suljovic is obviously a lot harder of a test, as such the bookies have it as a 75/25 game. I've got Suljovic winning over 70% of the time before a deciding leg, with Lewis barely winning 10%, and I think Mensur claims enough of the remainder to make it a bet - 1u Suljovic 1/3
Jelle Klaasen (14.84%, 65.16%, 88.39%, 90.00) v Daryl Gurney (10.32%, 61.11%, 96.03%, 91.31) - Gurney's the betting favourite, but only around 60/40. Klaasen's injury may have something to do with that, as may Gurney's form and Klaasen losing first round in both events last week. My figures have Klaasen as having the edge, but only around 55/45, and they don't take into account the factors mentioned above, so I'll leave this alone and hope it's exciting.
Peter Wright (15.79%, 70.47%, 94.15%, 95.96) v Mark Webster (6.41%, 50.00%, 89.74%, 87.75) - Wright's form has been a bit indifferent since the UK Open, but not so much that he's not well over an 80% favourite on the market. Webster I don't think is quite live enough to bet, he has chances but only around what the market thinks. If it was 6/1 instead of 9/2 I might be tempted.
Alan Norris (7.52%, 66.17%, 92.48%, 86.82) v Raymond van Barneveld (19.31%, 71.29%, 96.04%, 94.65) - on another day this could easily be a last day evening session match, oh well. Norris apparently doesn't have even a 1 in 3 shot according to the bookmakers, if Barney plays like he did today, at least in the legs he won, then I don't think it's even that much. My stats think the line is right, so will not bet.
Michael van Gerwen (30.65%, 77.15%, 97.04%, 97.31) v John Michael (5.26%, 52.63%, 84.21%, 77.68) - Michael has maybe a chance of some sort of miracle, but is it enough to bet at 12/1? I have it as 4% wins 6-4 or better, with another 10% of legs going to a decider. It's not enough.
Cristo Reyes (12.50%, 61.25%, 93.75%, 91.48) v Mervyn King (15.94%, 53.62%, 92.75%, 88.94) - bookies have the final game as a coinflip, which is a nice way to finish. These stats have Reyes as a small favourite, but they don't take into account King's decent play on the floor, so I won't be betting this one. King was hitting doubles today and averaging decently, so will just watch and hope this goes the distance.
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