Monday, 17 April 2017

Euro Tour 2 final day - evening session

Well that was disappointing from a gambling standpoint - Price being the main culprit, he could have taken every single leg that Wade won if he'd just thrown a fifteen darter, which is really poor for a man in his form. Smith did what he needed, helped by Rowby having an off day (and his off days are really, really off), while Reyes really didn't get a sniff from the 3-1 lead - van Gerwen holding in twelve twice, holding another in fifteen and then breaking in twelve to get it back on throw, he did break in fifteen to ice the match but Reyes needed another break by that stage. Huybrechts maybe had more chances, 6-4 is close and he let Barney break in fifteen darts twice, his four missed darts at double were all in legs he lost so pin those and it's 6-4 the other way.

Odds are up quickly so a quick quarter final preview - Anderson/Klassen is a huge inconsistency faceoff, Anderson played the better this afternoon, the bookies have it even, so do my stats - both at 36 point something percent to win before a deciding leg. Wade/Wright has Wright installed as greater than a 70% favourite, Wade's not played well at all in either game so far, only finishing three of twelve legs in fifteen darts or less (Wright, by contrast, having nine legs in fifteen or under), so a Wright bet is tempting. The figures say Wright takes in regulation over 60% to Wade's 17%, Wright should take enough of the remainder to make this a bet, coupled with Wade playing less than solidly I'll have a stab - 1u Wright 2/5. Whitlock/Smith sees Smith installed as a small underdog, both had the same profile in today's game with three legs in fifteen darts and three in eighteen a piece. I have Whitlock at 40% in regulation to Smith's 34%, so the line looks close enough to me. Barney/MvG should be spectacular, Barney of round 2 loses, Barney of today has a chance, but he's given less than a 20% chance by the bookmakers. I have him at that figure without even considering what happens if it gets to 5-5, it is a short race and he shouldn't be that long odds. 102 average today with 50% on doubles and nearly twice as many 140+ scores as standard tons looks tough to beat, van Gerwen should but I don't think he does it enough to not bet on the elder Dutchman - 0.25u van Barneveld 9/2.

Definitely won't have anything up before the semis/final, should hopefully have a wrap up post after all's said and done.

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