Saturday, 15 April 2017

Euro Tour 2

Bit late to get anything up before the afternoon session, but the evening session looks like it could be a good one, so let's see what we have:

Jeffrey de Graaf - Ricky Evans: This is priced as even money, which I find a bit odd, de Graaf's only made the last sixteen on tour once this season and that was a couple of months ago, and while Evans hasn't even done that, his statistics are a lot better - de Graaf only has 8/21 won legs in under fifteen darts, compared to Evans' 15/26, and Evans is scoring better while losing, so I think there's enough there for a punt - 0.5u Evans evs

Sven Groen - Mervyn King: King's playing some of the best darts he's played in years, reaching five floor quarter finals or better so far. He's prohibitively odds on over a short distance, I have no data on Groen but he's not been that impressive so far since gaining his tour card.

Steffan Siepmann - Andrew Gilding: Siepmann I know nothing about (dartsdatabase offering little help), Gilding we know something about, but at 3/10 I don't want to be rushing on given the relative lack of form since the UK Open. That he didn't play the last two Pro Tour events is also somewhat of a red flag.

Ronnie Baxter - Kyle Anderson: Baxter made a good run at the UK Open, but hasn't made it to the last 32 on the floor more than once this year, Anderson's super inconsistent but should have enough class to pull through, not sure about the 1/3 odds though.

Daryl Gurney - Adrian Lewis: God damn this is explosive for a first round match, you've got someone who made two floor finals last week against a twice world champion who hit a nine darter just two days ago. Lewis is priced around a 60/40 favourite, and is solidly ahead of Gurney in terms of twelve and fifteen darter percentages, but Lewis also throws in the odd duff leg and against a man in Gurney's form it only takes one of those on your own throw to be out. Line looks OK so will leave it alone.

Dirk van Duijvenbode - Robert Thornton: Thornton had an alright weekend last time out, reaching round 3 in one event and winning his board on the other, van Duijvenbode had a good UK Open and made a tour quarter final last month but is on a four game losing streak since beating Whitlock for his only money since then. DvD has good odds and while I don't have a great deal of data on him, he is certainly capable of putting together enough legs often enough to make this a bet - 0.25u van Duijvenbode 9/4

Robert Marijanovic - John Michael: Michael's about a 60/40 favourite on the betting lines, and is playing alright - winning his board last time out and this being the second event of the two he qualified for on the same day. Marijanovic I have a lot less data on and find it hard to think he's that far inferior to place a bet either way.

Michael Plooy - Raymond van Barneveld: Barney's 12/1 on, Plooy lost 6-5 last time out with some alright legs, but couldn't get the crucial one against Kist. I can't see a way for him to win against Barney, so will leave this one alone.

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