Sunday, 23 April 2017

Euro Tour 3 - Final Session

Probably should have bet a few of those leans, no?

Odds are out for the final session. van Gerwen is rated around 90% to beat White. So far he's had 4 twelve darters and a further 5 legs in fifteen darts, which is going to be real hard to beat. White however actually has ten of his total twelve legs won in fifteen or less, although only two of those were twelve dart legs. This appears to be the in form White, but I'll refrain from going against van Gerwen, even though the odds look to be there to do so, simply because this looks close to peak MvG, and you don't do that.

Benito van de Pas is not even a 60/40 favourite against Cross. That's showing respect for Cross's game, I wonder if it is showing too much and makes it a bet on van de Pas. Cross, in his eighteen legs won so far, only has the one leg in twelve darts, and only half of all legs in fifteen. Benito also only has one leg in twelve darts, and less than half of all legs in fifteen (only winning the twelve legs as he's seeded obviously), which isn't too far off his historical figures of around 10% of legs in twelve and 55% in fifteen. I'm lacking significant data on Cross, only having his UK Open loss in the database, so I'll hold off.

Wright's 75% against Price. While he has a four game winning streak, including the major final, their earlier meeting in Europe was only 6-5. Their speed to finish this afternoon was identical, although Wright was a lot better in round 2. I'm not sure if this isn't a Price bet with both players being unconvincing today.

Klaasen and Suljovic are very close to even money, with Mensur being the slight favourite. This weekend, Klaasen's two games were identical, both with three in fifteen darts and three in eighteen. Mensur has it 4-2, with a couple of the legs against Bunting actually being twelve darters. Historical stats have Jelle as a touch better finishing in twelve darts, with Mensur being a touch better in fifteen and eighteen. With Jelle not having hit a twelve all tournament, this is a concern, but Mensur isn't that big a favourite to fire at 4/5.

Other thoughts now that I've plugged all the stats in - King is really playing quite well. White played out of his skin today, but after a slightly sluggish start vs Green, every won leg against Huybrechts was in fifteen or less, and he tacked on another three of the four he won against White while averaging 97 in the legs White won for good pressure. He won't claw back into my live top 20 this weekend, but is getting close after Cullen knocked him down. Mark Walsh had three twelve darters in his first round match which is quite absurd. Warrick Scheffer's numbers looked surprisingly good. No idea what Josh Payne was doing. Blum won four of six legs in 19 darts or more, as Payne was averaging just 79 when losing. Yet Payne won three of four legs in 15 or less?

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