Sunday, 2 April 2017

Players Championship 5/6, GOAT Simulator 2 - Electric Boogaloo

Funny how I've been talking about consistency in the last couple of posts, and then Adrian Lewis misses a nine darter for the title yesterday, and takes another nine darts to finish on double 1. Grats to Adie for getting the win, and also to MvG for the title today, who shall I give props to?

Performance of the weekend - Richard North and it's not even close. Anyone getting to two quarter finals in a weekend has to be close to this, but to do it as someone that nobody knows much about, beating the likes of in form van Duijvenbode, also in form van den Bergh and Wade? Nice work. Pity he couldn't get over the line in the Euro qualifiers.

Best tournament performance - North could have grabbed either of these, but I think it has to go to MvG - that wasn't the easiest set of opponents he will see in one of these, and he breezed through it, only dropping 4 legs from the quarter final onwards against Huybrechts/King/Wright. Nice arrows.

Best single match performance - Mark Webster seemed to be on this weekend, missing I believe a shot at double for a nine darter, and Dave Chisnall just casually rolled him 6-0 in a quarter final, so I'll give this one to Chizzy.

Worst weekend long performance -  Benito van de Pas is a contender, losing first round 6-5 both days to Ryan Meikle and Adrian Lewis, but Adie might be forgivable, as such I'll award this to Michael Smith for busting first round twice to Pete Hudson and Shaun Griffiths. Just when we think he's back in form.

Worst single tournament performance - While it would be harsh to give it to someone with an injury losing in the first round to a former world champion, Klaasen 6-0 to Burnett seems fine. There's a few other contenders, but none match the scoreline and differential in quality quite as much as this one.

Re: GOAT Simulator. I have yet to find a video of the 1998 final on the interwebs, but I've pulled the stats off the other four finals I mentioned. Taylor's numbers:

Year (opponent)/12 darters/15 darters/18 darters/19+ darters/losing average
1990 (6-1 vs Bristow)/1/12/5/2/97.18
2001 (7-0 vs Part)/2/15/4/0/108.33
2006 (7-0 vs Manley)/6/13/2/0/97.20
2009 (7-1 vs van Barneveld)/6/15/2/0/109.02

Combine those all and you get the following figures:
12 darts or less - 17.68%
15 darts or less - 82.35%
18 darts or less - 97.65%
Losing average - 102.73

In comparison, Michael van Gerwen, right now, is on 30.65% twelves, 77.15% fifteens, 97.04% eighteens with a 97.31 losing average, over a 372 legs won sample (Taylor - 85). I might run through the Part 2003 and van Barneveld 2007 finals at some point in the near future, but I think we can tell that Taylor got it won by simply not giving the opponents a chance to win easy legs. That fifteen dart percentage is very high, and when opponents were winning, they were being put under decent pressure to do so. He's not hitting that many twelves, in fact it's less than two points higher than what his current numbers are, it's just the continual knowledge of knowing that if you don't go out in fifteen darts, Taylor will. If you don't do that leg on leg on your throw, he will break you, and you will need to chuck in a twelve darter in order to gain an advantage.

I don't have the time to run the numbers this evening, but I'd like to think that MvG has the edge, even if we compare just against the best figures which seem to be the 2009 final. We'll see.

Answer to the previous post's question: Neither won. Both hit three twelve darters - Bristow hit two (one being overkill to win the second set with Taylor way back in 250, one to deny much later with Taylor on 41 after nine darts), Part hit one in the first set with Taylor on 81 after nine. Barney also threw four twelve darters in the 2009 loss out of twelve legs won. Read what you like into that one.

Edit - to include the current adjusted top 20:

1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Gary Anderson
3 Peter Wright
4 Dave Chisnall (UP 1)
5 James Wade (DOWN 1)
6 Raymond van Barneveld
7 Adrian Lewis
8 Mensur Suljovic
9 Phil Taylor
10 Jelle Klaasen
11 Kim Huybrechts
12 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
13 Benito van de Pas (DOWN 1)
14 Ian White
15 Alan Norris
16 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)
17 Michael Smith (DOWN 1)
18 Daryl Gurney
19 Robert Thornton
20 Mervyn King

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