Wednesday 19 December 2018

40 yard screamer then hit the bar

That seems like a decent summary of today's betting. We nail the Dolan over Cullen punt perfectly, god knows how the game actually looked, I was at work, but 3-0 is kind of comical, then we just miss out on the Asada over Wade upset, oh well, Seigo's done himself incredibly proud and certainly booked himself into an invite for the Asian stages of the World Series tour... oh.

Elsewhere today, Aspinall beat Nentjes comfortably, de Graaf didn't show up at all and while Malicdem needed to work he got there in the end, Huybrechts rolled back the years to obliterate Larsson, Wilson ended up on the wrong end of a very good showing from O'Connor, Whitlock basically failed and Smith was given an alright test by Meulenkamp but got through.

It's all a bit rushed, but tomorrow we have:

Wattimena/Barnard - Michael didn't play great in his opener which seems quite a long time ago now (think it was Friday?), it was about 64/36 before kickoff and 65/35 now, edging a bit more in Wattimena's favour on a more recent sample to more than two in three. With the line running at 1/2 Wattimena, I won't be punting on this one. Looking at the recent sample, gun to head I'd go Jermaine given the model has tended to underrate him slightly, but there's no guns here, so it's fine.

Norris/Lennon - I do hope to got that Steve puts Alan away as he should do and doesn't have some crap legs as he's shown on occasion over the last month or two, this is more than a 70% shot for Lennon, and if you go since the Matchplay it seems a virtual lock, although Norris has only won fifteen ranked legs in that timespan. 0.5u Lennon 4/7, winning's a habit that Norris doesn't have since forever. His penultimate result in the Players Championship was a 6-0 turnover. To Benito van de Pas.

Bunting/Humphries - Bookies have this fairly close, probably based on Luke looking very impressive in dispatching Adam Hunt, probably his best televised performance, albeit on a small sample. Season long I'm seeing 55/45 Bunting, but it's more like a 2-1 advantage of late, which makes sense given that Stephen had his best TV run right before here (although Luke also had his best floor run right at the end. No bets here.

Beaton/Dobey we covered already and are on Beaton, so Reyes/Rodriguez - if anyone's brave enough to touch this given how inconsistent both players have been for the entirety of their careers then good luck to them, the general line seems about 60/40 in favour of Cristo, which is a bit more in favour of the Spaniard than I was thinking, looking at roughly 55/45 year long - although over the last few months it's probably looking even better for Rowby, despite that being the timespan where Cristo's had his one key TV result. 0.25u Rodriguez 13/10, his figures were good in the opener and like in that game the pace should suit him, it's not the greatest play in the world but I think there's enough edge all things considered to go small on it.

King/Dekker's even more of a layoff for the round one winner than Barnard, as such we've already taken a gander at it, same with everything else for tomorrow evening actually, so we've just got the two add-ons for tomorrow's matches. A betting update as I think it's needed - we're up just over a unit on a 12% ROI, I don't know why I feel disappointed, I guess it's just because the ones we did lose have been completely brutal - the Jones missed match doubles (can I write it off as a scratch if I said I bet on Paddy Power where they refunded it as a free bet?), the Mansell non-performance, Asada pushing Wade to overtime today, de Sousa hugely outperforming, if just one of those hits we're crushing the tournament. Still, let's not get greedy, shall we?

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