Saturday 22 December 2018

World Championship round 3 projections and bets

There we have it. I've run the numbers, so let's see what we think in terms of bets, we'll go in order of play - we already did Joyce/Norris yesterday and punted on Joyce, so what else do we have?

Chisnall/Huybrechts - I don't think there's much in this really, Dave is projecting a little bit better than what the lines suggest, but Kim played really well in the first round. Chizzy did as well, he needed everything to squeeze out the win over Payne, but I'm inclined not to bet given that Kim's game was almost like a return to the form we've basically not seen all year and the game could be tighter as a result.

Gurney/Lewis - This is actually lining up to be much closer than you might think, Gurney looked close to unstoppable on scoring against Smith, doubling was a different matter, but Jamie's only a point or so behind on year long points per turn, and is hitting a comparable percentage of legs in four and five visits. Sure it went five sets but Lewis was hitting the big scores frequently, and if he can keep up with Gurney, which I think he can, he might be able to cause an upset - 0.25u Lewis 5/2, Jamie Lewis causing a big upset in the round of 32 of a world championship is perfectly plausible.

Searle/O'Connor - One of a few games where we've got no seed at all, Willie taking down James Wilson in a tight one while Searle overcame one of the best sets we've ever seen from Mensur to get a huge turnover. It's more or less evens on the market, so 0.25u Searle evs, he got the bigger win and while Willie was good against Wilson, against Meeuwisse he was somewhat average.

Anderson/Wattimena - Should be straightforward for Gary. I can't recommend betting the Flying Scotsman at double digits to one on, and with the way Wattimena played being what he's done all year, namely just taking a bunch of cheap legs not overly quickly, I can't see how Anderson gives him enough chances to consider the 10/1 punt.

van Gerwen/Hopp - 2u van Gerwen 1/12, Hopp may be able to play well enough to grab a set, but van Gerwen is simply that much better, just look at the graph, it's 97% season long and over 98% on recent form. van Gerwen played excellently against Tabern and I do not see how Hopp will be able to hit enough of his good scoring legs or huge outshots often enough over a race to four sets.

van der Voort/Dobey - Another game where the bookies can't separate them, so it's a case of whether you favour a large sample, where I'm seeing Dobey coming out slightly on top, or a smaller form based look, where Vincent, who's been looking great so far, rates to be a strong favourite. I'm leaning the former, Dobey's not exactly been playing bad himself over the last couple of months, but if you want to ride the Dutch train while it's still going then I won't blame you.

Dolan/King - Another close one in the market, and another one that differs wildly when you compare all form, where King's a lot better, or more recent games, where it's Dolan who ought to take it. It's 5/6 King which offers a little bit of value on the former, but I can't pull the trigger, King seemed to be running out of steam a little bit later in the game, this one is longer, Brendan's not going to go away. Will avoid this one.

Wade/Brown - 0.25u Brown 14/5, the game of Brown's against Klaasen went as expected, Keegan will need to up his game a bit, but over the course of the year he's not that far off Wade, who really should have been out against Asada, and with Wade maybe not being in the greatest of places he may not produce quite the game needed. There's a consistency issue in this one, Keegan does throw in some bad legs so the difference between winning and losing averages is about twice that of Wade's, but I can't see how that'd bump Wade's win chances to the near 75% they need to be to not bet on Brown here.

Lewis/Labanauskas - I think Darius' run probably comes to an end here, the compilers have this as a 75/25 game in favour of Jackpot, who saw off a decent performance from Ted Evetts in straight sets. That's where I see things more or less as well, over recent games we don't have a great deal on Darius, it's just this and a couple of Euro Tour events, so I'm not reading a great deal into the projections thinking this is going to be tighter just looking at those matches.

Aspinall/Anderson - Nathan pulled out a big shock coming from two down to defeat Gerwyn Price, and is priced (boom boom) as a 60/40 dog to Kyle Anderson, who was a bit fortunate to get past Noel Malicdem. Kyle's play was good enough to make me think he's on good enough form that we can go 0.5u Anderson 8/13, he's rated as much higher on the season long performances and we see it so often where someone gets a big breakthrough win just like Aspinall has, only to go and underperform in the following round.

Cross/Reyes - Really not much to see here, Rob is a big odds on price, and while there may be a tiny bit of value I'm not going to chase it, there's been enough from Cristo to make me think he has a small chance to get things done.

Petersen/West - 1u West 5/11, Steve looked good in taking down Richard North and I'm going to keep betting against Petersen until he goes away. The season long numbers speak for themselves and Devon will surely not be able to pull off yet another miracle over a longer format this time.

van den Bergh/Humphries - Dimitri's second game was much, much better than his first, not giving Clayton much of a chance, while Luke took down Stephen Bunting with a comparable performance. There might be small value on Luke, year long there's not much there but on more recent form he's up around the 40% mark which makes slightly better than 2/1 half tempting - if Dimitri didn't look like he's clicked into gear.

Smith/Henderson - Don't see any great value, Smith took care of Meulenkamp with the minimum of fuss, while Henderson needed everything to get past Gabriel Clemens, this will probably be a game too far for Hendo, 4/1 seems an accurate appraisal of his chances.

Alcinas/van de Pas - 1u Alcinas 8/13, the tiny sample on Benito over recent games is a bit of a concern before you look at that it comes from more or less six good legs out of 100 played, over the course of the season Toni's been so far superior that I can't see how he doesn't get into a lead and hold it, when you can get this price on any top 50 player against someone who conceded a match dart to a Canadian qualifier you have to take it.

And that's the lot. Norris appears to have flown out of the blocks so let's see if Joyce can halt things at all.

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