Sunday, 16 December 2018

Some more of the second round matches analysed

With fifteen first round games in the book already, we'll be half way through that stage in about an hour or so, let's have a quick look at some of the games that have already been finalised and see if there's any value in them. Obviously, five of those fifteen games have already been played, and we looked yesterday at the Chisnall/Payne and Wright/Alcinas matches, so there's not too many to do, which is good as the punt of the round starts fairly soon.

Wattimena/Barnard's the first game, which is all the way on Thursday afternoon, Michael being somewhat fortunate to overcome the decent looking de Sousa. Jermaine's a guy that's crept into the top 32, but whose numbers don't really look amazing whenever I look at them, it's the first time that he's been the seed with a bit more expectation on him, and I think Barnard will be a lot more comfortable having had one game in the books that was a real tester. The season long stats are saying 65% Wattimena to within a hundredth of a percent, which with the current line being 4/9 Jermaine 2/1 Michael isn't that enticing. Over a more recent sample it clicks right in to what the market suggests, so there's no bets here.

Beaton/Dobey's an interesting one later in the same session, Chris coming through a somewhat disappointing Boris Koltsov in straight sets, Beaton's the opposite of Wattimena in that his numbers appear generally better than what his results have shown, so while I've been laying Jermaine a fair bit I've often been backing the Adonis throughout the year. For this one, I'm finding it very hard to split them - I had Beaton as just a favourite by less than half a percent on a season long sample pre tournament, it's increased to nearly 51% after Dobey's first round game. However, if we drill into more recent matches since the Matchplay, it's looking like two to one in favour of Beaton. This seems somewhat counter-intuitive given that it's Dobey that appears to have been coming into form and we've not seen much out of Beaton, but we've got a good 100+ legs in that smaller sample for both players, and Beaton's outperforming Dobey on every relevant metric. Given he'd be just value season long with him being odds against, 0.25u Beaton 6/5, Dobey wasn't really tested and if he comes in a bit cold as a result it could be costly.

In the evening we've got three games we can look at, the first being Mervyn King against Jan Dekker. Dekker got through Lisa Ashton, first set aside Dekker seeming generally the better player, although he looked awfully nervous and his action appeared somewhat suspect as if he was afraid to release the first dart, although it was normally accurate when he finally did. Mervyn rates around 60/40 to take this on the year long sample, while the bookies have it slightly closer at 4/5 King and 5/4 Dekker. Looking at the more recent form guide since the summer break it transforms to 70/30 - in favour of the Dutchman, Mervyn looking honestly bad compared to his early season form (where, of course, he managed to claim his title). I don't want to bet Mervyn as the season long stats don't give enough of an edge, and I don't want to bet Dekker simply because he didn't look right at all in the opening game.

This is then followed by Adrian Lewis against Ted Evetts, Ted coming through a game against Simon Stevenson relatively easily. The line's at the 80/20 Lewis level, which is close to where I had the line before the tournament, I'd got it read at 79% Lewis. As such, I'm not going to touch this, although looking at Lewis' figures since the summer break, I wouldn't be shocked if Evetts can keep this close - Adie's stats really aren't that great and while Ted's only just thrown 80 legs in the database since then, he's actually scoring more points per turn than Lewis is, and while Adie's finishing legs faster in five and six visits in that sample, Ted's just killing him on four visit checkouts. Adie still rates to be the favourite, although only 55/45. As it's such a small sample on Evetts there, I'm not going to use it, but just bear it in mind before you start betting Lewis to win 3-0, Ted claiming a set or more really wouldn't be a surprise.

Final match of that session is Mensur Suljovic against Ryan Searle, Ryan getting through what rated to be a close game fairly easily just like Evetts did, taking Stephen Burton apart 3-0. Searle's generally available at 4/1, and I'm wondering if there isn't a spot of value there. He'd certainly need to improve his game from yesterday to stand a chance, but year long he's north of 35% to take the match according to the projections I have. His legs in par of fifteen darts compared to Mensur is only a couple of percentage points behind. Strangely, given that Searle's early part of the season was not great at all, Suljovic's win chances increase to 75% if I filter to just after the Matchplay. That'd still indicate a Searle bet, so let's go small - 0.1u Searle 4/1, I should probably go a quarter of a unit but I just have the sense that Mensur's at the stage where he just doesn't mess up these sorts of games as often as he should. Then again, he did lose to Cristo Reyes in a major just two months ago.

On the Friday afternoon we've got Benito van de Pas against Jim Long. Urgh. Why couldn't this have been Mansell then we can bet all the chips? I'm simply not going to analyse this and go 0.1u Long 5/1, purely based on three things - Benito is that bad at this stage that he shouldn't be that far odds on against anyone, Long may not be quite so bad having had a game to settle on the stage, and given how awful that game was Benito will have the pressure of being expected to win - something that he's not done much of at all all year.

We then have Steve West against Richard North, this should be a heck of a lot better quality with West getting close to winning titles this year and North gaining a lot of stage experience. West was rated in the high 50% range before the tournament on my projections, such is the level that North's playing at, so with North at 13/8 we might be having a look at that. Despite North hitting all those 180's, West's winning chances actually went up about half a percent after the first round game, and after the summer break there's an indication that West is in better form - 65% to take the game just based on games played since then. As such, I'll leave this game alone and just expect some decent arrows.

Final one we can look at, and I'll be quick as the Clemens game is starting, is Klaasen against Brown. Keegan looked great yesterday, although that few legs really didn't shift any win percentages season long - it's still Keegan better than 2-1 to win it, and very nearly up in the 70% range. After the break it's even more emphatic, Brown being more than 80% to win. 0.5u Brown 8/11, I might go stronger but Jelle's game has been such all year that he's been alright for four to five legs, and then fallen apart - if that can nick him a quick set, then maybe he can get home if Keegan slips up.

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