Tuesday, 11 December 2018

World Championship round 1 bets and round 2 early reads

I won't be putting up any round 2 bets in the form of "Alan Norris vs winner of two players either of who will beat Alan Norris" yet, as apart from the first couple I'll have enough lead time to see who actually wins and look at the match itself, so for Cross against (likely) de Zwaan, keep an eye out during the evening session on Thursday for when de Zwaan inevitably beats Kumar, and I'll chuck up something for the Jamie Lewis game as well. Probably during Dekker/Ashton, or at least before the game in question.

So, session by session:

13th:

de Zwaan/Kumar - This feels like one that'd be super safe to shove into an accumulator, but I don't see any real point in betting de Zwaan at 1/20. There's got to be a 5% shot that he develops Dave Chisnall level doubleitis, we have Waspgate, Fartgate 2 - Electric Boogaloo, Kumar has the game of his life, de Zwaan trips over the oche like an Asian qualifier and breaks his wrist breaking his fall...
Schindler/Harris - The line looks pretty good to me. I'm reading this at 62% Schindler and he's 4/6, Martin didn't have the greatest of weekends at Minehead and Harris is certainly no mug.
Dekker/Ashton - Hard to get a real read on Lisa, although by all accounts she played pretty good stuff in winning the Finder Masters this weekend just gone (props also to Glen Durrant - going to try to see if anyone recorded the livestream to get some stats). Market's got Jan at 75% which I'd guess is about right.
Cross/de Zwaan or Kumar - If this is de Zwaan, which it almost certainly will be, then it'll be a de Zwaan bet. He's coming in at around 2/1, 5/2 in places if you're looking at Cross versus winner of markets, and the projections I have are putting him north of 40% to win the game.

14th (afternoon):

Barnard/de Sousa - Hard one to judge. de Sousa isn't someone we know a great deal about, but his numbers in the qualifier looked fairly respectable, and Barnard, while ripping up the Challenge Tour, hasn't exactly been putting up amazing numbers on the main tour. 0.25u de Sousa 11/4, I think Michael should win but this does look like one where the Portuguese lad could easily steal it 30-35% of the time, so let's take a shot.
Tabern/Raymond Smith - The market has this very much close to evens, which I think could be worth a little shot on Raymond, Tabern's best work seemed to be earlier in the season and, like Barnard, his numbers aren't incredibly threatening. There's a big difference between getting near 3/1 and punting on someone who's odds on.
Nicholson/Burness - Nothing here. I'm seeing Paul at safely over 70%, which isn't quite enough given that he's 1/3 to take the match. Kevin really hasn't done anything on tour all year that makes me think that we should punt on this one the other way either.
J Lewis/Schindler or Harris - Jamie's the favourite, and I'm thinking that the present lines are just about close to correct (I'm just using Hills to get early reads as they've priced up both possible opponents), Harris I think would have a one in three shot, while Schindler's much closer at about 55/45, may well end up betting the German dependent (assuming he wins obv) on how the opening game runs and how the market settles.

14th (evening):

Noppert/Lam - I want to say bet Noppert at 1/3, then Lam goes and wins a huge soft tip event. Really quite annoying that. Thought Royden might have enough name value to go with Noppie, I guess not.
Stevenson/Evetts - 0.25u Stevenson 13/10, I'm not entirely sure how Evetts is the favourite? Stevenson's been putting up better numbers all year long.
Dobey/Koltsov - This projected as Dobey being a prohibitive favourite, but I'm chucking it out as 50 or so won legs back in the UK Open qualifiers where Boris I don't think played that well anyway is really a great sample. I think Chris has picked his game up enough where Koltsov won't actually realise the 25% he needs to pick him, if you fancied a handicap market of Koltsov +2.5 then I don't see why not.
G Anderson/Nicholson or Burness - It's running at stupid to one on for Gary naturally, if it was somehow Burness then I wouldn't touch it, Nicholson maybe? I'm thinking that 10/1 or so that's being floated about is probably worth a little nibble if Paul looks decent, season long has him getting up towards 20% to win it.

15th (afternoon):

North/Marijanovic - Line looks close to perfect, Marijanovic is 6/4 and I've got him at 40% within fractions. North ought to do it based on recent TV games, but Robert's certainly very, very live.
Mansell/Long - 1u Mansell 1/4, I really don't see how Jim will be able to put up the sort of game that'll be able to threaten Mickey over a best of five set matchup. He might be able to chuck in the odd leg here and there, maybe even nick a set, but taking three off someone who's won on tour this season seems too much of an ask.
Payne/J Smith - 0.5u Payne 8/11, this looks like simple name value, but when the name's not really played much at all this year and is against a tour winner from this season, we take things if we don't even need 60% to be profitable.
Hopp/Noppert or Lam - Market looks to be reading it right. I've got Noppert as a marginal favourite and the bookies agree, god knows what'd happen if it was Lam that came through, I'd probably go Hopp in that spot. It'd be a weird matchup given the projections typically hate both Hopp and Noppert.

15th (evening):

Alcinas/Ross - 1u Alcinas 2/7, he just seems like he'll be far, far too classy for someone who's been pulled in at the last minute.
Searle/Burton - I'm finding it very hard to separate these two players who have got a fair bit in common and seem to be peaking at the right time, I favour Ryan ever so slightly but the market does as well, if you wanted to play the momentum game and go with Stephen then I don't think you'd be making a mistake.
Brown/Sedlacek - It's really a bit too short to be betting Keegan. From the little we have seen from Karel, Brown should have no trouble, but at near 1/5 odds it just seems likely enough that Keegan has one of those games where nothing works and he can't find a treble to bring the Czech into the game.
van Gerwen/Tabern or Smith - If it was Tabern then a typical line of 16/1 looks close to right. If it was Smith however, and he thoroughly outplayed Tabern, then I could see a micro stab at it if we're offered similar odds. Let's wait and see.

16th (afternoon):

Clemens/Kirk - 1u Clemens 8/15, I know Aden won through the qualifier, but he's been so far outplayed by Gabriel all season that I'm struggling to understand the line. The projections have this one at 95% so this looks like an incredibly strong play. Clemens even answered the stage/getting a win in a major event question in Minehead. Pile on.
O'Connor/Meeuwisse - This line, however, looks decent. I'm thinking the Irishman claims this just a little bit more than 60% of the time, Yordi's sample is small but not insignificantly small, so 8/13 on O'Connor doesn't offer any value whatsoever.
Dolan/Liu - Yep, Brendan's 1/8, I think this should be safe to put into an acca with how Brendan's been playing, but I won't recommend a bet simply because of what I said in the preview - Liu beat someone who didn't look terrible last year, weird things happen in set play, let's avoid this.
Chisnall/Payne or Smith - I don't think we'll be betting this one. Payne's a tentative 5/2 or there abouts, and I'm seeing Dave at around 70% to come through if it was Payne.

16th (evening):

Humphries/Hunt - Another match where the market's looking pretty good. Humphries has been better than Hunt all year, not by a great deal but enough where I'm thinking about 65/35, and with the line being 8/13 Luke then I can't see any value.
Edgar/Labanauskas - 0.25u Edgar 11/10, there's no doubting that Darius is a very solid player, but I'm getting Matt at over 55% to claim the win, if we're given odds against then I think we need to take that shot.
Ross Smith/Lim - 0.5u Smith 3/4, it boils down to Smith having put up great stats all year - we're talking not too dissimilar to the likes of Darren Webster, while Lim is Lim, I can't help but think that Lim being Lim is keeping the line closer than it should be.
Wright/Alcinas or Ross - Will probably end up being a small stab on Alcinas here. He's currently 6/1 on Hills and season long I'm thinking it should be around 3/1, at least I'm getting him with 25% equity. Will need to sanity check based on the first round game, if Antonio looks bad I could easily pass it.

17th:

van der Voort/Ilagan - 0.5u van der Voort 3/10, I think we can go with this one safely enough, Vincent's been under the radar a bit but I'm not convinced by Lourence's game at all, even given what he's done on the Asian Tour. VVDV usually brings his best stuff here, and his season long game isn't too dissimilar to, say, Hendo.
Jones/Petersen - 1u Jones 8/11, Devon simply isn't good. I've got Wayne at 82%.
Joyce/Dobromyslova - I don't think there's much here, Ryan's game has come off the boil a touch but I think he should still have enough to handle Dobromyslova. It's too short to consider anything really.
van Barneveld/Edgar or Labanauskas - I think we'll be looking at laying Barney in this one. The other guy is better than 2/1 in each case and I'm not seeing Barney as having a better than two in three shot, especially if it's Edgar that comes through.

18th (afternoon):

Thornton/Larsson - We don't have enough on Larsson to really consider whether around a 2/1 punt is worth the gamble, he's probably competent enough but Rob's shown some spurts so I'll just pass this one.
Evans/Rodriguez - Almost worth a punt on Rowby. I think the line should be nearer 13/8 Rowby rather than 2/1, but it's hard to recommend anything as it'll rely on the Austrian to bring his good game given how Ricky's been playing, and it just doesn't happen enouhg.
Ratajski/Asada - Nothing here. Krzysztof is probably a bit too short, but he's just been too good to think that Asada will be able to pull this out enough to make the 7/2 offered a decent punt.
Webster/van der Voort or Ilagan - Will almost certainly be a Vincent punt if Vincent comes through. I'm seeing 45%, Hills have him longer than 2/1.

18th (evening):

Lennon/Bailey - No bets here. The Australians have generally been fairly decent when they've come over, so I can understand wanting to look at James given the great price we're offered, but I think Steve will just be too strong.
Meulenkamp/Portela - Line's looking just about perfect, I'm projecting Ron in the 70-75% bracket and the line is 4/11, should be one of many you can think about sticking in an acca to boost the odds, but not enough to warrant any sort of single bet.
van den Bergh/Puleo - Dimitri's 1/12, I'm tempted to put a couple of units on as this should be safe, but if van den Bergh suddenly had a bout of floorgameitis then he could slip up and get nervy possibly. Just pop it in an acca and move on.
Gurney/Smith or Lim - Probably laying Gurney here. Smith's up at a 35% chance to win the game and Hills currently have him at 5/1 (with Lim oddly 4/1, despite them pricing Lim up as the underdog to win the first round game).

19th (afternoon):

Aspinall/Nentjes - No bet. Geert's sample is mostly from the UK Open qualifiers, and if I'd have seen a bit more of the same recently I'd have taken the 2/1 or there abouts, but only having 37% when we don't know how his game has developed doesn't scream out bet to me. Nathan's won a title since then.
de Graaf/Malicdem - It's almost tempting to have a small stab on Noel at 3s, it'd be all to easy for Jeffrey just to look good for one set and then be very ordinary for the rest.
Cullen/Dolan or Liu - Assuming it's Dolan, we're probably betting Dolan. I'm seeing him safely above 40% to win the game, nearly 45%, the early lines are around 3/1? Sure, that's a full year sample and stage Cullen is a bit better, but it'll surely still be value if Brendan looks remotely competent.
Huybrechts/Thornton or Larsson - This could be a tricky one, if it was Thornton then they can't be separated at the bookies, which, given form all year, would indicate a Huybrechts bet, the projections saying he's nearly 60% to bring that game home.

19th (evening):

Wilson/O'Connor or Meeuwisse - Would need to see more lines, but it could be a spot to lay the seed, Willie's got a near 40% chance and Yordi's better than one in four, there's nothing particularly attractive right now but once we've seen the first round game we'll know more.
Whitlock/Joyce or Dobromyslova - May need to get a line check on Ryan. If he looks competent and back more towards his early season form, then snapping off the 5/2 or there abouts offered seems easy, year long projections have him at better than one in three. If he looks ordinary then this might be easily ignored.
Smith/Meulenkamp or Portela - Think this'll end up being a play on Michael. Ron's about a one in six chance and is currently 4/1, Diogo is 6/1 but is barely 5% to win. Let's hope it's Portela then we can open up a ton.
Wade/Ratajski or Asada - Will be the easiest bet in the world on Ratajski if he comes through, I project this at close to a coinflip, the Pole being ever so slightly favoured - and the market's saying two to one in favour of the Machine.

20th (afternoon):

Wattimena/Barnard or de Sousa - I can't see any value in this at present if it is Michael that gets through the first round, Wattimena's favoured but it's not quite a 2/1 difference. Could easily see that changing though.
Norris/Lennon or Bailey - Think this'll be lay Norris either way. He either faces Lennon, who I think wins nearly three out of four, and Lennon's the right side of 1/2, or he faces someone who beat Lennon, and Bailey's 2/1.
Bunting/Humphries or Hunt - If Hunt advances then I think the line will be close to correct, I'm seeing Bunting as better than a two in three shot which might give tiny value on Adam, but nothing to get really excited about. Humphries on the other hand is 2/1 right now and I don't see Bunting even as high as 55% to claim it.
Beaton/Dobey or Koltsov - Dobey's actually priced as the favourite. I can't separate them, it's the closest game I have all round. Beaton's come through as a favoured punt a few times this year and may be one to go for, especially if Koltsov advances, Beaton is almost certainly long enough to bet if he faces the Russian.

20th (evening):

Reyes/Evans or Rodriguez - Line's a flip if it's Evans, and we'd bet Evans. If it's Rodriguez then I think the line would still indicate laying Reyes, but nowhere near as strongly than if Rapid gets the win.
King/Dekker or Ashton - I'm seeing King at 60% versus Dekker. King is 4/5 with Hills, so if there's a bit better price then we'll probably go Mervyn. Against Ashton I think King would be too short but we'll cross that bridge later if needed.
A Lewis/Stevenson or Evetts - Lewis is favoured here, but I think if Stevenson can get through, we can punt on him again in round two - the projections I have see him with more than 30% equity, at 4/1 it's got to be worth the stab.
Suljovic/Searle or Burton - Mensur is almost certainly going to be far too short, both potential opponents are competent enough that they're more than one in three shots, lines of 1/6 Suljovic seem a bit ridiculous.

21st (afternoon):

van de Pas/Mansell or Long - Er, Hills have Benito priced as the favourite if it's Mansell? That'd be stupid. Mansell takes this 70% of the time. There's a few bookies out there that have this available, I'd just take what you can now.
Henderson/Clemens or Kirk - If it's Clemens, I doubt there's anything useful here, I'm seeing an early line of a flip which seems accurate enough. If it's Aden then I think we lay Aden again.
West/North or Marijanovic - Robert ought to be about a 2/1 dog, North about 6/4, maybe 11/8. This is more or less in the ballpark of where the market is, sadly.
K Anderson/de Graaf or Malicdem - Kyle ought to be strongly favoured against Jeffrey, I'd set a line at 4/11, and lo and behold, that's what Hills have said as well.

21st (evening):

White/Jones or Petersen - The line presented for Jones as an opponent is close to right, I'm thinking Ian's north of 80%, he's 1/5, move on. If it's somehow Petersen, and we're presented 1/5 again, as we are right now, then lump on - it should be nearer 1/20.
Klaasen/Brown or Sedlacek - The market has this game as a flip if Brown advances, which appears ridiculous as Klaasen would barely rate to win 30% of the time. Could be one of the strongest plays of the round.
Price/Aspinall or Nentjes - Market's looking good with Nathan 2/1 and Geert 3/1. I think in both cases it's favourite Gerwyn a bit too much, but not by enough to punt on the underdog. If we get Price money coming in, or if the first round game has one player doing really well, then we'll surely re-evaluate.
Clayton/van den Bergh or Liu - Could be tiny value on Dimitri, maybe even decent value - 8/11 is what I'm seeing on one bookie, but he's nearly 60% to get through. If someone chucks out 10/11 take your pick then we'll be straight on it.

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