Sunday, 23 December 2018

Oh my god upsets, panic!

Sure, we've had some high profile players go crashing out in comedy fashion, but can we really call them upsets, or is it just the general population not recognising that there's a great deal of parity in the game today and that the difference between number 6 in the world and number 56 in the world, particularly with the comedy ranking system that we have today, isn't really that big of a deal? I think the latter, seeing how our tips have correctly told us to bet on Wright, Suljovic, Gurney, Barney, Webster and Cullen to go out, but how big a deal is this? Let's plug some criteria into the master computer and see what happens:


Now let's chuck out the last column, as that's a small sample and is going to be heavily weighted to the players that came through the PDPA qualifier and the likes of Burness, Labanauskas etc who otherwise hold a tour card or play in tracked events, but compare those middle two columns. There's really not a great deal between the lower end of the seeded players, and the Pro Tour qualifiers. This makes sense for some reasons, mainly if you are qualifying through the Pro Tour, you are doing well this year, and not qualifying possibly entirely based on what you have done in the past. Sure, if Jermaine had have hit that bull to knock Anderson out, then that's an upset. But a lot of the others can't really be described as hugely shocking. 3/1, 4/1 shots do tend to come in around 20-25% of the time - if they're priced right, if they're not priced correctly, then they'll come in a lot more often.

Some other things I want to touch on - I've been updating the fantasy game spreadsheet after each game (if I'm not at a computer then it'll wait a bit, but it's definitely correct as of right now), but a summary of who's still alive, how many players they have left and who they are follows - * indicates it's not an actual entry:

360 - itskelvinn (4/11 - van den Bergh, Reyes, Alcinas, Petersen)
351* = UNUSEDENGLISHBOT2 (3/11 - Joyce, Aspinall, Searle)
334 - ashley12 (5/9 - van der Voort, K Anderson, Petersen, Dobey, J Lewis)
301* - EUROBOT (4/10 - van den Bergh, Labanauskas, Reyes, Alcinas)
260 - Scothead180 (3/7 - M Smith, Dobey, Humphries)
259* - DUTCHBOT (1/8 - van de Pas)
254* - UNUSEDENGLISHBOT (3/6 - Chisnall, King, West)
248* - IRISHBOT (1/6 - Dolan)
218 - Ra_Z_Boy (3/5 - J Lewis, Reyes, G Anderson)
215 - royalblue (3/6 - van Gerwen, van der Voort, van de Pas)
214 - CyCoSan (4/8 - van de Pas, van den Bergh, Brown, M Smith)
209 - 16redbird16 (4/5 - G Anderson, M Smith, van den Bergh, Petersen)
207 - @warrenallsworth (3/7 - M Smith, Dobey, Brown)
205 - thebigeasy59 (3/5 - G Anderson, Brown, Henderson)
195 - Eric T (1/5 - G Anderson)
194 - aks304 (2/7 - Cross, A Lewis)
185* - DEUTSCHSPRACHRAUMBĂ–T (0/6)
184 - erroneous (4/7 - G Anderson, van de Pas, Reyes, Alcinas)
180 - @benonsport (0/7)
165 - BigPoopsT (1/5 - van den Bergh)
164 - Paasei (3/6 - M Smith, Dolan, Petersen)
160 - whatarethebands (2/6 - van Gerwen, van den Bergh)
154 - Jamaleum (3/5 - M Smith, Reyes, Petersen)
147 - slaity212 (2/5 - G Anderson, Wade)
136 - Jebeezers (2/7 - Cross, van den Bergh)
126 - thedinergetsby (2/5 - van Gerwen, Cross, van de Pas)
117* - ANTIPODEANBOT (1/7 - K Anderson)
102 - Wseries (2/5 - Wade, van den Bergh)

Will the teams that loaded up on multiple players be able to hold leads against the teams that went for one or two big hitters? Who knows!

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