Monday 21 October 2019

Euro Championship preview

Before that, we've got another couple of players in the worlds - Jan Dekker binked a strong looking West Europe qualifier (that included, amongst others, Richard Veenstra), while Jose Justicia/Perales won the South-West Europe qualifier, hard to see exactly who was in that one given they all entered with a trillion bonus names, but it looked like it at least had Alcinas, Noguera, Barbero who won this previously was there, there's another Portuguese player Marques who was putting up some decent numbers and, if they put Portugal in the World Cup, should at least not throw things away while de Sousa does his work.

So, the draw, courtesy of the PDC website:

Let's go game by game - Smith's probably just happy to be here, he's not drawing dead in what's always a quick first round game, I'll probably end up making one of those value bets on Smith that we have to make even though it'll likely lose, oddly that's not on oddschecker, if we can get better than the 5/1 I can see then all the better. Durrant/Evans ought to be one sided, maybe not as one sided as the market is right now, it looks 2-1 season long in Glen's favour. Cullen/King's a tough one to call, seem to be two extremely closely matched players. Cross/Webster could be one of the most one sided games of the round.

Chisnall/van den Bergh could be explosive, or Dimitri might not turn up and it's one sided. Dave's playing well but if Dimitri plays well it can be kept close enough. Wade against Clayton could be an interesting one to punt on, Wade's probably not as big a favourite as he is listed at (1/2), Clayton's been quietly good all year. Gurney against O'Connor should be simple enough for Daryl, Willie's been pretty quiet since he got his win earlier in the year, while Lewis you would think ought to deal with Whitlock easily enough, the market has them close and what I'm looking at has them somewhat close as well.

Bottom half, and White/Smith is the tie of the round, in a tournament where White may have to do something special to cement a Premier League place it's not the draw he wants, nothing indicates this won't be very close. Brown/Bunting's a tough one to get excited about, it'll probably be worth the watch as like the previous game it's going to be extremely tight, but the quality will be lacking. Wright/de Zwaan might be a little bit closer than the 4/9 that is showing for Peter right now, but on current form it's so hard to go against Wright - unless he's in a final, thanks for missing more match darts and costing me today's beer money. Hughes against Wattimena is a tough one to call and it's 10/11 pick your poison, I think the edge in quality lies with Jamie but Jermaine's made a TV breakthrough and most of Jamie's best work was before the summer break.

Suljovic against van der Voort could be yet another game that's closer than the market has them at, Vincent's quietly had a good year and this seems more 60/40 than what you can get. Ratajski is a danger to win anything these days, feels about 60/40 again as Dobey's a solid player and is now getting into more or less all the majors which'll help his ranking. Price can't take Evetts lightly, it's not a "zomg Evetts is 3/1 all in" sort of tie but Ted's making the first page of my points per turn visual so can't be taken lightly, while Aspinall against Beaton should go the way of the youngster over the veteran, but it's not a done deal despite Steve qualifying through consistency rather than some big runs.

One other thing to mention - the BDO announced their Grand Slam picks. Durrant is obviously the huge controversial one (Nick Kenny can't be too pleased about that, but still has a shot if Glen can qualify through a PDC route, which he currently isn't doing), but otherwise I think they're mostly the correct calls. You can say Bennett, but I think it's maybe a little bit too soon given that there's still a couple of years where he could get picked while still Development Tour ineligible when he's done a bit more on the senior circuit. Inviting both Ashton and Suzuki I'm fine with, Williams would have got in on ranking if he didn't take down the World Trophy, then you've got fill ins on ranking - Harms and Veenstra should be competitive but I get the feeling Parletti and Warren will just be making up the numbers, then again, nobody else is jumping out as being worthy ahead of them.

The Euros start on Thursday so expect a bets post on Wednesday evening, a couple of brief FRH ranking notes - as Gary Anderson doesn't play the Euro Tour, he's now dumped out of the top 10 by Ian White and Dave Chisnall, and Scott Taylor's now the highest ranked Taylor in the rankings.

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