Saturday 5 October 2019

Grand Prix round 1 bets

Note that my data model does not adapt to the double start format, I'll make minor adjustments based on eye tests of how they double:

Evans/Dobey - no bet. The market has Chris as a small favourite, while I can find certain periods where one or the other looks like a play, there's no real edge in any of them.

King/van den Bergh - no bet. As mentioned, King withdrawing is a huge red flag so with Dimitri being as unpredictable as he is, I'm just not touching it.

Cullen/White - no bet. White's 4/7, it's around that mark season long. Over shorter time frames Cullen pushes up to around 40%, no edge there either, but is there still scarring from their last TV meeting?

de Zwaan/Beaton - no bet. Jeffrey's 4/6 which is pretty much bang on where I'd see it season long, over the last couple of months or so there might be tiny value on Steve, but it's not enough of an indicator to really push anything.

Wade/Henderson - no bet. Season long Wade is fully worth the 1/2 price he's installed at, however, once we get into samples from just May or so onwards, Hendo pushes well up into the 40% range, he obviously likes the venue so 15/8 might be worth a nibble, but Wade in a double first format is really hard to bet against.

Smith/Whitlock - Hmm, I have a problem here. Whitlock's been on auto-lay for as long as I remember, but it's only season long where the 2/1 line looks about right. As we get more and more close to the present day, Whitlock pushes up into the 40%, and in the last three months he's scoring more in his winning legs than Smith is - albeit there's half the number and a big consistency issue. Whitlock likes a double, Smith maybe not so much, 0.25u Whitlock 2/1, will trust the model and in the words of Peter O'Hanraha-Hanrahan, I don't like it but I'll have to go along with it.

van Gerwen/Hughes - 0.1u Hughes 9/2, he's high 30's season long, low 30's over shorter distances, I'm not sure the double start format is ideal for Jamie, but I can't see how he drops so low that 9/2 isn't worth a micro punt. van Gerwen did lose to Alan Norris literally today after all.

Anderson/Brown - no bet. The best I can see Keegan getting to is barely one in three, which with 5/2 odds isn't worth the shot, given over smaller samples I'm looking more to Anderson.

Bunting/Clayton - no bet. Clayton's got a small edge over Bunting all year which is roughly where the market is at, I'd probably set the market ever so slightly more in Clayton's favour, but it's not enough to start punting.

van der Voort/Aspinall - 0.25u van der Voort 9/5, that seems a fairly generous price given the model's spitting out low to mid 40% chances over all sample periods I looked at, it's a sprint in round 1 and I think Vincent can start quickly enough to get an edge.

Lewis/Wattimena - 0.25u Wattimena 6/5, the market is finally cottoning on to that Jermaine is decent, over the full season this isn't a big edge, probably should be 6/5 the other way, that's not bad and doesn't make it a bad bet, but once we cut down to the last six month and shorter samples, Jermaine rises up to 60% or near enough that mark, which makes this worth a punt.

Durrant/Ratajski - no bet. There's very little to separate these two over any sample I look at, Durrant only ever having a wafer-thin edge, which with the market set as it is doesn't really make a bet on Krzysztof enticing.

Gurney/Noppert - 0.25u Noppert 5/2, that's a very big price. Danny's played really well all year, there simply isn't that big of a skill differential.

Price/Chisnall - no bet. I want to go with Gerwyn given the last two days if anything, but I can't generate any sample that makes 3/4 look like a remotely sensible price to fly in on.

Cross/Suljovic - no bet. Season long I'd look at Cross, move to smaller samples and I probably should still go with Cross, but there's some timeframes where 4/5 just looks like the correct line, and there's enough intangibles with Rob's record and Mensur's doubling prowess that I want to avoid it.

Wright/Hopp - no bet. Season long 2/5 on Wright looks fine. Smaller samples actually look decent value, but over a short race with variance-boosting factors like the double start, I think we can safely avoid pushing what wouldn't be a great edge at long odds on.

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