Thursday, 24 October 2019

SMIFF

Kerching. Well done Clayton too, demolition job on the defending champion.

Said this'd be a brief post and it is. Tomorrow's round 2 games are Cullen/Cross, Gurney/Whitlock, Chisnall/Clayton and Smith/Evans, they're extended races to ten, Oddschecker is being lazy so I'll just have a quick look at the tournament sponsors which are putting Cullen just north of 2/1, Gurney and Chizzy both at 1/2 and Smith/Evans as a flip. There might be a little bit of value on Clayton as usual, who's fluctuating in the very high 30's to the low-mid 40's dependent on sample size, the model says Whitlock is likely a bit better value than that, but the model always hates Gurney, who looked good tonight while Whitlock didn't really (Lewis was just worse), while Smith might be a play on form, season long I agree with the flip analysis, but from around the start of June onwards Smith ratchets it up to 60/40 and better. Then again, maybe a come from behind win over Duzza is just what Evans needs to kick start his form? Not sure, I don't particularly want to use one game as a reason to not bet someone who's just beaten MvG... I can't recommend any bets at this stage, if anything does pop out when I see more than one line and/or if there's movement, I'll make another post, but don't expect one.

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