Saturday, 26 October 2019

Great news

The ITV Player does actually allow for catch up possibilities, so with that, combined with Stoke being more or less underwater preventing me from getting down to London today, I've been able to compile the Chisnall and Evans victories into the master computer and have time to take a look at tonight's games. I probably ought to have been able to do that anyway, given the afternoon session was more or less unaffected, but here we go:

van der Voort/Dobey - Vincent did on TV what he's been doing on the floor all year and rout Suljovic 6-1, not overly impressive given he got four legs in six visits, but a win's a win, Dobey got a slightly smaller upset win over Ratajski, bit of an up and down game where Ratajski was fairly close but missed a couple of key doubles, and a heavily botched leg 7 looked to be the difference. Market has Dobey as a small favourite, I can't disagree too strongly with that, I might have gone with 10/11 the pair, there's no real edge in general.

Smith/Bunting - Couple of runaway victories here, Smith busting the coupon putting in an excellent performance to lead 5-0 against Ian White and close it out 6-1, while Bunting won by the same scoreline against Keegan Brown. Market strongly favours Smith, I think we can have a small nibble the other way, 0.25u Bunting 11/5, Smith's never a two in three favourite in any sample size and Bunting's up to 40% in anything we look at from the last six months onwards, so we'll take a stab.

Price/Aspinall - Gerwyn got past Ted Evetts in a close 6-4 win with a ton of breaks, Evetts getting to 2-2, 3-3 and 4-4 on throw but never managing to get his nose in front, whereas Aspinall got the one break he needed against Beaton with a 170 out and held from there for a 6-3 victory. Market has Price 8/11, which I think we can go with - 0.25u Price 8/11, that's not even needing a 60% win rate to come through, and Price is nicely over that mark at all times - season long it's nearer a two in three shot.

de Zwaan/Wattimena - All Dutch clash for a quarter final spot, Jermaine rolled past Jamie Hughes without ever really getting out of second gear as Yozza couldn't get going, while de Zwaan got an early lead against Wright, was pegged back to throw but broke in the tenth leg to avoid a decider. Similar price to the previous game, Jeffrey's favoured, but I'd be half tempted to poke the other way - season long, Jeffrey's about at where the line is, if not a bit better than it, but as you narrow it down further it becomes more flippy, and in some smaller samples Wattimena edges to being favoured, albeit only ever up to 55% or there abouts. Probably should punt here, but I'll pass on it.

World Masters is down to the last sixteen, Michael Warburton looked pretty solid in a win over Scott Mitchell in what was easily the game of the night, it's hard to call a winner overall, Williams and Harms had already gone before yesterday and we lost Veenstra and Parletti yesterday, which just leaves Mandigers as the only top 8 seed remaining, and there's only five out of sixteen that reached it this far. The bottom half is especially sparse, with Scott Waites the only seed left, although he faces Paul Hogan, everyone else is a Wikipedia red name in that half, although we just mentioned Warburton, we know of Ciaran Teehan from the youth tours, Carl Hamilton's not completely unfamiliar having played the World Trophy and some Challenge Tour. Tough one to pick out.

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