Sunday, 27 October 2019

Quarter finals everywhere

Let's rattle through the World Masters first - Usher against Vandenboegarde is first, Mario's the only seed left in his half and is probably a small favourite, Usher scored pretty decently to get past Stainton but I think the Belgian's been playing slightly the better stuff. O'Shea against Duff is going to depend on if John (no, not that John O'Shea) is able to produce what he did to eliminate Mandigers, over the course of the televised stages they seem quite close, Duff's probably beaten the better two players to get to this stage but hasn't hit quite the same heights. Teehan v Warburton next, Michael's looked very good and ought to handle the youngster, who's got weird stats in that he's been given a lot of easy legs, but at the same time is scoring incredibly well in those that he's given up. Finally it's Waites against Hamilton, Carl looked a lot weaker in the last 16 in getting past Owens than Waites did in edging out Hogan, I think experience should come through easily here and Scott should advance.

0.25u Warburton 8/11 because that line's closer than I thought it would be.

Euros - Cross/Evans is priced right I think. Rob's 1/3 and he typically trends anywhere between 70% and 80% to claim this one, seems an easy one to avoid. Chisnall/Gurney follows that and it should be a lot tighter, the market has them pretty close, I'm thinking it should be a shot on Chisnall at 5/6, the projections give him a fair bit better than Gurney overall, but Daryl, as I always say, has great consistency which offsets that a little. and he did have a very good performance yesterday, so I think I can avoid this one. Smith/de Zwaan is third up, I think we have a bet here, 0.25u de Zwaan 13/8, for all intents and purposes this is a coinflip from what I can see, there's very little statistically to separate the two and Smith looked sluggish enough yesterday where anyone who played better than Bunting did ought to turn him over. There's simply no way I can come up with any scenario where Smith wins 60% of the time so we'll go the other way. Finally we have Price against van der Voort, what an eleven leg spell that was from Price, Vincent didn't need to play his absolute best to get past Dobey who was missing a bunch of doubles, Gerwyn's a near 75/25 favourite which I think is fair statistically, I was thinking that van der Voort might have hovered around 30% or about one in three, then we can take 11/4 with the added rugby-related monkey tilt that Price might be on, but it's not there.

Doubt I'm back for the semis and finals to be honest, it ought to be nothing other than a Cross/Price final though.

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