Wednesday, 6 May 2020

Home Tour 21-24

Not sure exactly who's left at this stage, there can't be that many players that haven't already said they're out yet, but let's have a look at each group:

21 - Cross/DvdB/Borland/Sedlacek - This ought to be Rob's group. While Dimitri can do something here, playing in his kitchen is probably the exact opposite to where you'd think he'll do his best work. Karel could potentially do something and cause an upset, Borland isn't terrible, but seeing 8/11 for Cross to take the group seems about right. Can't see that anyone's recalibrated their odds to reflect Telnekes moving back, but I can't see Derk to Karel making a huge difference.

22 - White/Noppert/Wilson/Noguera - OK, now this one is interesting in that we've got two players who are always underrated, one guy who's out of form, and one wildcard - this is going to come down to White against Noppert you'd feel, and the odds I think favour going with Danny. 8/11 on White to claim the group doesn't seem nearly as nice as 5/2 on Noppert to do so, I think if you put 2 on White for every one on Noppie you've got a pretty safe arb here, but I might just set it up so that a White win is breakeven and we're freerolling on Danny.

23 - Anderson/van Duijvenbode/Schindler/Larsson - Wow, this one's super tough to call, we've got three players that I've always been distinctly higher than most on - Kyle we don't know where he's at, Schindler hasn't done it for a while, so DvD at 9/4 looks like a really good play. I can't see Larsson troubling the scorers, and the time difference could easily play a factor as well (although it didn't exactly harm Heta).

24 - Ratajski/Hughes/Labanauskas/Alcinas - Oh boy, this one's equally tough. The easy answer is Ratajski, but at odds on I'm not sure I can justify the play. Hughes at 5/2 seems like better value than Labanauskas at 7/2, and if he shows what he could do at his peak, rather than what he has done when he should have lost his card if others had kept theirs, then Alcinas at 9's would probably be worth a punt. I don't think I want to run any sort of sims, this should just be very high quality throughout.

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