Friday, 30 October 2020

Day 2 bets

Tempted with Hughes. Worked out that it's O'Connor that's breaking oddschecker, so it's only showing Hughes at 4/6. Season long that looks about right, but since the restart Hughes has looked a lot better, maybe as much as a three in four favourite. Only concern is that O'Connor is really on a freeroll, he shouldn't be here and now has a confidence boosting win that'll help him see how far he gets. Will pass and probably regret it.

0.5u Petersen 1/3, this looks safe enough. Kleermaker's competent, but Devon's a tier above, probably several - should win this near 85% of the time since the restart, even nearer to 90% season long. Got to go with the form here.

Nothing on the de Sousa game. It's close to a Clayton bet, we can get 6/4 and he's above 45% season long, but only a couple of percentage points above the bet being break even since the restart, so the edge isn't quite there.

Also very tempted on Wade. The odds are only 11/8 though, which is probably a reaction to Aspinall's poor performance yesterday, Wade's in the high 40's season long to win this and effectively a flip since the restart, this is a gun to head bet on James, but fortunately our police state isn't quite there yet so we can pass on this one.

van Duijvenbode is one that I thought would be a bet given that all the stats I have on any time period give him a little over 40%, but he's already as short at 11/8 which is a little bit surprising, do they know something about Michael that we don't?

Price/Wright is up as a coinflip. Year long, yep, that's right, neither player I see as better than 51%. After the restart Price is a fair bit better, up in the mid to high 50's, but we only get the 10/11 side on Gerwyn, so I think I can reluctantly pass this one. If you see him win the darts then take it maybe?

0.1u White 10/3, going low as there's something about White that doesn't seem quite right, but even since the restart when he's seemingly not played quite at his best, he's still over a one in three shot. Season long it's even more. Also leaning low because Michael looked GOOD yesterday, which is a real change, that and it's a longer format TV game, and in Germany where the crowd has rustled Ian fairly recently.

Nothing on the Suljovic game. This looks like a standard West wins one in three shot (there's a difference in quality, but it's not as much as you'd think), West is just longer than 2/1, so nothing doing here.

Back for the quarters later.

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