Monday, 5 October 2020

Grand Prix round 1 tips

Let's plow through these quickly in running order:

Lewis/Dobey - No. Line seems fine. If it moves in a bit more to where it's something like 5/6 Dobey then I'd think about it, this feels about 60/40, so obviously at 4/6 I'm not going to be interested.

Noppert/Searle - Not this one either. Line's a bit closer than I thought it would be with the relative form of both players, but the projection's also a bit closer than I thought it would be, so happy to avoid it.

Suljovic/van Duijvenbode - 0.25u van Duijvenbode 13/8, looks to me like this one has Suljovic only just on the right side of a flip, Dirk having a 10% better chance than what the line indicates, which is fine to go with I think.

de Sousa/Petersen - No bet here, projection is roughly the same as the last one with Devon having the tiniest of tiny edges, but with the market saying 4/5 Petersen, there's nothing worth punting on here.

Wade/King - No bet yet again. Market has Wade at 4/6. I have Wade at 60%. Move on.

Cross/Anderson - 0.25u Cross 11/8, as mentioned in the preview post there's nothing between the two players whatsoever. So I'll take 11/8, even if Cross isn't in peak form he at least has match practice, which Gary doesn't.

van Gerwen/Ratajski - No bet here now. I was looking at 2/1 on Krzysztof, but the market's moved in to 7/4, with van Gerwen still projecting to win around 60% of the time, I think the value's gone sadly.

Smith/van den Bergh - Close, but nothing here. Michael's priced up at around 4/6, I think he's a little bit better than that, but not by much.

Dolan/Huybrechts - Really, really close to a Dolan bet. Probably should be about 8/11, he's actually 10/11, if it ticks over to evens I'd go with it, as it'd be pretty much the same spot as Cross is in, albeit the win chances/odds are kind of reversed.

Hughes/Bunting - Too close to call in both the projections and the market, so aside from maybe taking whoever wins the bull 2-1 in sets, there's nothing of real value here.

Clayton/White - Exactly the same as the other game. Jonny's actually the marginal favourite, but only just.

Chisnall/Durrant - Lacking in real value here yet again. Thinking Glen's in the mid to high 50's range to take this, so 4/6 is close enough really.

Gurney/Cullen - Joe's tempting here, he really is. I'm seeing him at just over 45%, so 7/5 isn't quite enough to start punting. If money comes in on Daryl then I don't see why not, but I won't be watching this one too closely.

Wright/Joyce - No value. Joyce is probably slightly better than the 4/1 line that's being quoted to me, but I'd only go with 10/3 or 7/2, so I wouldn't be getting the wallet out here.

Price/Wattimena - Fairly similar to the above analysis. Would probably price Jermaine up at 11/4 given what the computer's spitting out, he's 7/2, so it's close, but I don't think we're getting rich betting against Gerwyn at this point in time.

Aspinall/Clemens - Nothing whatsoever on the Wednesday it is. Aspinall at just shorter than 1/2 is perfectly fair, this has a real 70/30 sort of ring to it, so I'll pass.

Disappointing lack of bets, but this is always a tricky one to accurately judge, so maybe less is more here.

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