Sunday, 18 October 2020

ET3 round 3 analysis

Bit of a disappointing day two that. The one bet we did fire on lost, with Petersen not exactly looking bad, but not quite at the peak level he needed to be in order to trouble Price. On the other hand, all the leans we didn't fire on won - Kuivenhoven took a deciding leg, Mensur looked extremely good against Evans, van der Voort took care of a misfiring Hopp, while Wade was able to edge out Clemens. Needless to say that having half a year to fix things since the last Euro Tour before last week didn't allow sportradar to stop being completely fucking useless, with no coverage of the Cross/Hunt game whatsoever. At least there's always Youtube heroes to pick up and show the actual game. It's really not difficult to do this.

Today we have eight games and I'm going to run through them quickly - Kuivenhoven's first up against Glen Durrant, nothing here as I think Maik's run ends, Duzza being shorter than 1/3 is maybe slightly underrating the underdog, but not enough to consider a bet.

Second is White/Smith - bookies have it fairly close, actually having Smith as a small favourite. This is close to a bet on White, he's 6/5 and I think he has the tiny edge season long, but at only 51%. I can pass on this, White's in need of results and as mentioned yesterday probably isn't at his peak, whereas Smith just murdered Telnekes yesterday.

Labanauskas/Cullen is a tricky one to call, Darius took Dave Chisnall out with an OK performance, whereas Cullen looked very nice in the legs he won against Huybrechts (nice big fish to ice the match as well after Kim made a stupid tactical error going bull second dart on 121 - go first dart or don't go at all), but mediocre in the others. Odds look close to fair, I've got Joe as a slightly better favourite than 60/40, as such 13/8 on the Lithuanian number one isn't value for me.

Game four is Price against de Sousa, the path for Gerwyn isn't getting any easier - we mentioned the Petersen game above, de Sousa had an easy time against Pietreczko but looked extremely ordinary. I'll take 0.1u de Sousa 15/8, Jose's good enough that this is only really 55/45 in favour of Gerwyn, I'd go the full quarter of a unit, but there's so much uncertainty in terms of de Sousa with how he played yesterday. Let's hope it wasn't just Ricardo bringing Jose down to his level?

Suljovic/Hughes next, and the line looks close to right with Mensur at 4/6 and Jamie at 11/8. Maybe it should be a little closer, it looks about 55/45 again, but Suljovic looked so good in round two, Jamie looked good enough that it should be competitive.

Kleermaker/Cross is sixth, Martijn improving massively from game one to take out Ratajski in a decent upset, while a couple of legs apart, Cross looked perfectly fine against Adam Hunt. Can't see any real value here, I've got Rob as winning nearly three games in four, so with him being close to 2/5, we can avoid it.

Seventh is Wade/Aspinall, very close to a bet on James at 13/8 - I'm seeing him as about a 55/45 underdog again, and he looked a little bit better than Aspinall did yesterday, wouldn't blame anyone in going for it, but I think Nathan should be able to raise his game a little bit.

Finally it's van Gerwen against van der Voort. This is about the least interesting game we could see, Vincent just never shows up against MvG, the price looks right, pretty weak game to finish off really.

Just the one bet again, and it's against Price again.

Some other notes, Covid bullshit has seen the Philippines team withdraw from the World Cup which is a huge loss given they'd drawn England, when will this garbage stop, and we've also seen Ashton>Sherrock and Hedman>de Graaf in the first two Women's Series games, leaving everything wide open for today. Probably won't be back for the quarters.

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