Saturday, 31 October 2020

QF views

Wow, what a day, Petersen took the game in what looked to be a bit of a closer result than it should have been, then Ian White got his best performance in months to knock out MvG, who wasn't playing badly himself. We've got multiple unexpected quarter finalists, let's have a quick scan through to see what we think:

Wade/O'Connor - Willie was competent enough in defeating Jamie Hughes who never really got going at all, climbing to a 5-0 lead and not letting go, actually improving his relative performance after the break. Wade was maybe a little bit fortunate against Aspinall but was able to get the critical break in the first session and then hold out from there, Aspinall averaging a cool 97 in the legs Wade won but not quite being able to get the key break back. I see no real good opportunities here, this looks 70/30 in favour of Wade season long, it's a bit stronger since the restart, nearer four out of five, if you look at that latter sample then 4/9 on James would probably be worth the shot, but Willie's continuing a great freeroll so who's to say he can't take it further.

Clayton/van Duijvenbode - Jonny took a nice early lead against de Sousa, and then was able to hold things together when Jose threatened to make a bit of a comeback, getting the last couple of critical legs when de Sousa started missing doubles. Dirk needed to come from behind, Smith put together a run of six legs to hold a lead of a break, but Dirk ran off the last four legs to clinch the win. Bookies have this quite close, Clayton shading a 55/45 assessment, I think this is incredibly close to a bet on Clayton though. Jonny's projecting in the low 60's on any sort of timescale, so I probably should go with it, but there's this lagging doubt that Dirk, having made the last major final, has added confidence and will outperform his year long stats. I'll pass, but probably regret it.

Petersen/White - Devon needed to come from behind against Kleermaker, Martijn opened up a 4-1 lead at the break despite not needing to put up a huge performance to do so, although Devon was able to sweep the next session, they then traded pairs of legs before Devon held out for the win. Ian was able to dump out MvG, powering to a 5-0 lead, and then pushing home from 7-4 after Michael had got one break back, very fine performance, MvG was playing fine, another 11 points somewhere in a White leg and he'd average a clean ton in the legs White won. Market says 60/40 for Petersen, that seems close enough to ignore. White is a little bit better season long (although with White only 11/8, there's nothing there), while on performances just after the restart, Devon is up slightly more than two in three. Another one that's worth considering, but I won't actually pull the trigger on.

Wright/West - Great game from Peter here, took the probable best player in the world apart, could have been a bigger win but for Gerwyn to pull back three legs late (Wright meanwhile was casually averaging near 115 on the legs Gerwyn won). West stunned everyone with a decider win against Suljovic, the last four legs all being breaks after West had surrendered a 7-3 lead at the break. This seems to be a bridge too far for Steve though, the line of 5/1 looks close enough to accurate here. Year long, he's probably got slightly less chances, since we've got back under way, slightly more, but nothing that is worth considering in terms of a bet.

That's what I'm seeing things as - no actual recommended bets, going on more recent form I think you can argue for Wade/Clayton/Petersen, if you're leaning that way anyway then I certainly won't stop you.

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