Saturday, 24 October 2020

ET4 day 2

Fairly unremarkable day 1, all I'll say about the Lewis game is that we should have bet on Marijanovic at any price just out of general principle and that this didn't occur to me at the time is a glaring omission, Ross Smith looked great, Franz Rötzsch looked more than competent for a second straight week and picked up a good win over a solid opponent in Brendan Dolan, Kuivenhoven had a bit of an off day, Kleermaker got away with one while Benito continues to struggle. Let's pile into day 2:

Hughes/West - Good win for Steve that, taking out Alcinas with both players scoring comfortably into the mid 90's, West was threatening to drop out of the FRH top 50 if he didn't take that one. Bookies think this will be quite close but have Hughes as the favourite, I tend to agree with that assessment, I've got Jamie as having slightly better chances than the market indicates (thinking around 60/40), so it's close to a punt.

Lewis/Noppert - Tough one for Lewis this. Needs a result to have any chance of getting to Oberhausen, and Noppert is probably the toughest draw he could have got. Danny, who easily brushed aside Sebastian Pohl, is the market favourite and probably one of the most underrated players on the tour. This seems similar to the last one, I'm thinking Noppert is about a 60/40 favourite, so given the line it's close, but we'll pass again.

Smith/Schindler - Martin's into the second round after defeating Tytus Kanik in a game that was probably closer than the scoreline suggests, the Pole missing darts at double in three legs and being waiting on double in a couple more - obviously the only out he got was 170... Smith's a huge favourite, I was thinking this might be a shot for a small play on Schindler, but his 2020 form isn't matching his 2019 form where he was probably the best player to not make the worlds, Smith being 2/7 seems accurate enough.

Cullen/Marijanovic - Joe's nearly a 75/25 favourite in the market. There's not much data at all on Robert, but this has the feeling of being fair, I'm half tempted to take a shot on Robert given that he did average 99 yesterday, but I'll pass on it given Joe's showed some signs that he might be returning to form on occasion.

Gurney/Baker - Scott got past Unterbuchner, who was misfiring a little but was still able to get it to 4-4 before Baker put the game to bed, and he now has a tougher test in Daryl Gurney. Baker's 5/2, this seems close to spot on, I've got him closer to a one in four shot than one in three, but no value on either side in this one.

Chisnall/Meulenkamp - Big game for Ron this, a win should punch his ticket to the Euros as he currently stands on the bubble, he got through a scrappy game against Michael Rosenauer where he missed 24 darts at double which he'll have to tighten up. Line again looks accurate, I punched this into the computer and saw Ron with a 32% shot - thought there might be value but no, he's 2/1, let's keep going.

Wade/Harrysson - Andreas was one of the surprise packages yesterday, taking out Benito van de Pas with a sub-80 average. Can't see that troubling Wade in the slightest (Harrysson was actually over 40% on doubles so it's not like the averages are low because they missed a ton), 1/7 really isn't appealing however. Stick it as a banker if you want.

Cross/Rötzsch - Tempting one this, Franz got past Dolan with a 93 average, 6/12 on doubles, wasn't bad last week either. Cross is massively better than anyone he'll have ever faced, but we're getting a good price here - 0.1u Rötzsch 9/2, is it really that outrageous to say he'll nick this 20% of the time? I don't think so given how he's played in the last couple of weeks.

Ratajski/Kleermaker - Into the evening session and we get a redo from last Saturday where Kleermaker was a surprisingly easy winner. Martijn took out Ballaj after Arsen missed six match darts, so is probably lucky to be here. Krzysztof is 1/3, and this does seem like a 75/25 encounter, so no bets here.

Bunting/Hamilton - Stephen's got into the seeds somehow, and faces the former world finalist who did what he needed to do against a domestic qualifier, nothing great from Andy but we know what he's been able to do in the past. We've got an alright price here - 0.25u Hamilton 12/5, Andy is correctly priced as an underdog, but the computer's spitting out that he's got about a 40% chance - that's enough of an edge to grab this price here.

Aspinall/Lowe - Possible game of the night here, Jason's had a great 2020 and got through a decider against Scott Marsh who looked very impressive, Jason needs a win to keep Oberhausen chances alive, so a huge game in his career really. Exactly the same spot as the previous game - 0.25u Lowe 9/4, this looks more like a 60/40 than something that Nathan will win more than two times out of three, enough of an edge to go with it.

Suljovic/Clemens - Gabriel looked very solid in beating a domestic qualifier 6-1 with a near ton average, and now comes up against Mensur in what could also be a highlight of the evening. The line looks just about right, if anything it might be favouring Clemens a bit more than it should, but meh, game in Germany makes it right enough of the time.

van Gerwen/Razma - Not a great game for Madars against Kai Fan Leung, neither could really score that heavily, he'll need to up it tonight but we know he can put together runs of twelve darters and get two or three legs in no time at all. Almost worth a punt on Madars. I see him as having slightly less than a one in four shot, we're getting 5/1, if this was eighteen months ago we probably get 7/1 and go with it, but it's 2020, so no.

Price/Smith - Ross had the performance of the day yesterday with a bonkers 112 average in a drubbing of Mario Longname, the Belgian not playing badly at all but having no answer to that level of performance. Now he faces probably the form player in all the world, if he repeats that performance he wins, but is it really sustainable? Looking at the computer, this should probably be 5/2 Smith rather than 2/1, if you think that he can do that again for another twenty minutes then don't let me stop you betting.

de Sousa/Hopp - This one should be fun, Max got his best result in a while with a 6-1 win over Klaasen, but faces the most recent champion in de Sousa and enters as a near 3/1 dog. That is accurate - in fact, it's probably overstating his chances, 0.5u de Sousa 1/3, the computer's reckoning that a fair line should be 1/5, so taking half a unit on Jose looks good here.

White/Noguera - Final match, Jesus took every leg against Kuivenhoven without really hitting top gear, average was around 90 which you think would need to go up against Ian. I think we can take the favourite again here, 0.5u White 4/11, again the computer thinks the favourite has a lot more chances than the market suggests, this ought to be closer to 1/6.

There we have it, back tomorrow morning with the last sixteen.

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